College Football Week 2 Stability Score Plays:
After last week’s Stability Mismatches produced a record of 4-7 ATS (now 5-7 ATS for the season), I’m here to unveil the Week 2 college football plays that qualify for my long-running system that quantifies the stability level of all FBS teams in college football entering a season.
This Stability System, which I’ve employed for the last 13 seasons without a losing campaign, measures one team’s stability against another’s. Using a time-tested point-assigning process for coaches, quarterbacks and returning starters, I am able to provide an overall stability score for each team. When the difference between these scores is 8 or higher, I consider it a “Stability Mismatch.” If you want more details on the methodology, please read this explainer from August.
Last week, the results were definitive. The stability mismatch qualifying game scores were not even close to their closing lines, other than perhaps the Georgia and Michigan State games. Of course, we lost both of those, and to be perfectly honest, I had a bad feeling after the Spartans game went south after what seemed to be a sure-fire win, as MSU’s backup quarterback threw a pick-six late in the fourth quarter to cost us a win. The fact that most of the games weren’t close to the point spreads will be something to follow this week and next.
The good news is that the entire college football landscape didn’t see any major injuries that would affect either lines or stability scores. Thus, we head into Week 2 with the status quo.
This came up last week again as a source of confusion, but the important thing to note here is that the stability score difference between the two teams has NOTHING to do with the point spread for a given game. I am simply assuming that oddsmakers have not given enough credence to the stability difference and that their line is off because of it.
Below, you’ll find a list of the top college football stability mismatches for Week 2. Note that all the games are scheduled for Saturday, Sept. 6. The editors at VSiN have also set up a convenient link to the Stability Chart for all 136 FBS teams.
I will again offer the weekly mismatches next week for you to use before retiring the system for another year. I typically believe that after two to three games for each team, oddsmakers can “catch up” and fully adjust for the changes to the teams. However, you should feel comfortable in employing this strategy in the first few weeks while the dust settles.
(325) LIBERTY (-6) at (326) JACKSONVILLE STATE
Stability Advantage: LIBERTY by 13
Steve’s thoughts: Two recent leading teams of Conference USA square off as Jacksonville State hosts Liberty. JSU was expected to be one of the more unstable situations this season, moving on from former head coach Rich Rodriguez to an entirely new staff and schemes. The Gamecocks put together a decent effort last week in losing at UCF 17-10, but remember that UCF is also a team undergoing a big transition for 2025. Liberty is a different story, bringing back 14 starters from last season for third-year coach Jamey Chadwell. The Flames are generally recognized as the favorites in CUSA and should be focused on Step 1 to that goal with a win in this road favorite spot.
(327) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (328) PITTSBURGH (-21.5)
Stability Advantage: PITTSBURGH by 11
Steve’s thoughts: Central Michigan qualifies as a fade for a second straight week in our Stability System, even though the Chippewas surprised everyone by upsetting San Jose State on the road Friday night. The Spartans’ effort was suspect, to say the least, as they seemed completely disinterested. CMU should see a far different level opponent this week in Pitt, which some view as a fringe CFP contender in 2025. The Panthers have 16 starters back for coach Pat Narduzzi and opened their campaign by ripping Duquesne 61-6. The line for this game sits at an uncomfortable -21.5 for Pitt, perhaps a sign that oddsmakers are trying to make this one difficult for bettors to back the chalk.
(337) KENNESAW STATE at (338) INDIANA (-36.5)
Stability Advantage: INDIANA by 11
Steve’s thoughts: Indiana is one of six stability system qualifiers this week that you’ll have to lay in excess of three touchdowns to back. Not only are these stability mismatches, but it seems oddsmakers are considering them outright mismatches as well. The Hoosiers are laying 36.5 to a Kennesaw State team that brings back just 12 starters from its 2-10 team of a season ago. The Owls nearly upset Wake Forest last week on the road though, falling 10-9. It would seem that those “in the know” expect a far different outcome this week in Bloomington. Coach Curt Cignetti’s team stumbled a bit out of the gate last week in beating Old Dominion 27-14, so it’s reasonable to expect a more focused and explosive response here.
(339) UTAH STATE at (340) TEXAS A&M (-29.5)
Stability Advantage: TEXAS A&M by 12
Steve’s thoughts: I can see how it might be easy to discount Texas A&M’s 42-24 win over UTSA last week, especially since the Aggies didn’t cover, but it would also be erroneous. The offense was quite sharp, putting up more than 400 yards in the victory, and you’ll see in a bit that the Roadrunners are also a stable team this year. Will the Aggies have what it takes to get us a win on a sizable point spread versus Utah State? In this battle of the Aggies, the hosts will be looking to get a final tune-up before heading to South Bend next week for a revenge game. Utah State is coming off a 28-16 win over UTEP in coach Bronco Mendenhall’s first game with the program. Playing in College Station is an entirely different animal, though.
(349) FRESNO STATE at (350) OREGON STATE (-3)
Stability Advantage: OREGON STATE by 8
Steve’s thoughts: As hard as it is to believe, Fresno State is already getting ready for its third game of the 2025 season under new head coach Matt Entz. The Bulldogs will be a stability mismatch fade for the third week in a row. They struggled in the opener at Kansas but responded big time by crushing Georgia Southern at home last week. This week’s game presents another road challenge in Corvallis, Ore., against the Beavers of Oregon State. Historically, playing in Corvallis was as tough as it gets, but Cal just came into town and cruised to a 34-15 win. New OSU QB Maalik Murphy, a transfer from Duke, did get his feet wet, however, and played pretty well in throwing for 244 yards. Considering what Jayhawks QB Jaydon Daniels was able to do to FSU with a similar skill set, I would expect big numbers from Murphy here.
(355) BOWLING GREEN at (356) CINCINNATI (-21.5)
Stability Advantage: CINCINNATI by 17
Steve’s thoughts: Another tough “hook” point spread to contemplate here as 0-1 Cincinnati lays 21.5 points to 1-0 Bowling Green. The Bearcats had a tough opener, falling 20-17 to an improved Nebraska squad in Kansas City. Bowling Green beat Lafayette 26-7. Ironically, the point spread records for the teams are actually inverted, so it could be argued that Cincy actually played better last week in losing than BGSU did in winning. Considering the stability score levels of each team here, a 17-0 Bearcats advantage, that wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Of note, the Falcons’ last three road games versus Power 4 opponents were all decided by seven points or fewer, including tight losses at A&M and Penn State last year. This line has me wondering if somebody “knows something.”
(359) TEXAS STATE UNIV at (360) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (-4.5)
Stability Advantage: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO by 9
Steve’s thoughts: Texas State has thrived under GJ Kinne, and in this, his third year, the Bobcats began their 2025 season by whipping Eastern Michigan at home 52-27. Kinne has only five starters back, but it didn’t seem to hurt last week, in particular on offense, as his team piled up 392 yards on the ground and 606 overall in overwhelming EMU. It will be a different test this week against a UTSA team that played well in an ATS win at Texas A&M last week. Veteran QB Owen McCown is back for another go-around for the Roadrunners, and he leads nine starters back for coach Jeff Traylor’s sixth team in San Antonio. With what is a fairly tight point spread, consider that Traylor’s teams are 29-4 at home in his tenure.
(373) MISSOURI STATE (+10) at (374) MARSHALL
Stability Advantage: MISSOURI STATE by 15
Steve’s thoughts: Fading Marshall (+39.5) last week at Georgia was one of the toughest-ever losses to swallow for the stability system. The Herd were overwhelmed all day long and fell behind 45-0 before somehow rallying for the final score of the game after an 84-yard drive on the second-string Bulldogs defense. Before that drive, Marshall had mustered about 100 yards of offense. Well, we get another chance to fade new coach Tony Gibson’s team this week, as they step into the chalk role against Missouri State, which got a rough welcome to FBS by getting clobbered 73-13 at USC. I find it interesting that oddsmakers have given the Bears a chance here after allowing 597 yards of offense last week. Is it an egregious mistake, or does the instability of Marshall make this a very competitive game? History says the latter.
(383) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (384) TOLEDO (-7)
Stability Advantage: TOLEDO by 13
Steve’s thoughts: Western Kentucky has put up 98 points in a 2-0 start for the season. Now, that doesn’t seem like a thing an unstable team would do, does it? Well, consider the opposition. Game 1 vs. Sam Houston came against a similarly unstable team. Game 2 was against a rather lowly rated FCS team in North Alabama. This week will be the first time that WKU actually gets a certified challenge, and it’s on the road at Toledo. The Rockets are looking to bounce back after a competitive effort at Kentucky, an SEC program that obviously presented a bigger challenge than anything the Hilltoppers have seen so far. Coach Jason Candle is in his 10th season with Toledo, and his team is again the favorite in the MAC with 13 starters back from last year’s 8-5 team. In his tenure, the Rockets are 41-11 at home.
(389) LOUISIANA TECH at (390) LSU (-37.5)
Stability Advantage: LSU by 8
Steve’s thoughts: People talk about “letdown games” all the time, but have they ever added the stability mismatch factor to the mix in such games? Coming off its titanic win at Clemson on Saturday, LSU welcomes an unstable program in Louisiana Tech for Game 2. The Bulldogs have new coordinators and just nine starters back, although it didn’t hurt them much in a 24-0 win over FCS Southeastern Louisiana last week. This week’s game on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge will be an entirely different animal, especially with the Tigers flying high and ranked No. 3 in the country. It should be noted that LSU is 6-2 ATS under coach Brian Kelly when laying 21 points or more.
(393) BALL STATE at (394) AUBURN (-42.5)
Stability Advantage: AUBURN by 10
Steve’s thoughts: Auburn posted one of the more impressive road wins of Week 1, going into Waco and beating Baylor 38-24 behind a big outing from transfer QB Jackson Arnold. The offense showed a punch that has been missing in recent years, and it seems that coach Hugh Freeze may finally have the pieces in place to get this program back into elite territory. Like rival LSU, the Tigers are faced with the potential of a letdown in a huge point spread game in Week 2 as they welcome Ball State to town. The Cardinals shouldn’t prove to be much of a threat, as they come off a 31-0 loss at Purdue and show a stability score of just three. Plus, including last week’s loss, they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games at Power 4 foes.
(405) UCLA (-2.5) at (406) UNLV
Stability Advantage: UCLA by 9
Steve’s thoughts: Nico Iamaleava’s debut as UCLA QB was a flatline disappointment as he and the Bruins were thrashed 43-10 by visiting Utah. After the Bruins were outgained 492-220 in that contest, you might question the wisdom of oddsmakers installing them as favorites on the road against a 2-0 UNLV team. Again, consider the competition, as the Runnin’ Rebels have picked up wins over FCS Idaho State and rebuilding Sam Houston. Those behind the betting counter aren’t exactly trusting new coach Dan Mullen’s project team. That said, we will definitely need a much better effort on both sides of the ball from coach DeShaun Foster’s UCLA club to get this win for the stability system.
(411) SAN DIEGO STATE (+1.5) at (412) WASHINGTON STATE
Stability Advantage: SAN DIEGO STATE by 9
Steve’s thoughts: Our final game of Week 2 kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET on Saturday night and matches San Diego State and Washington State. Each team beat an FCS opponent in its opener, but Washington State looked every bit the part of an unstable team in its 13-10 defeat of Idaho. In fact, the Cougars were outgained 221-211 and mustered only 3 yards rushing behind a retooled offensive line for new coach Jimmy Rogers. At the same time, the Aztecs allowed just 95 total yards to Stony Brook in a dominating 42-0 victory. At this point, you have to wonder if the right team is favored, or if the line has been based more on what we saw last year from these teams. Remember, Washington State may have been 8-5 last year, but it was blown up in the offseason with its coach departing and mass transfers out.
