College Football Week 3 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I have dug myself an early hole in both college and pro football. This past weekend, my frustration started to boil over. Saturday was particularly rough, as I lost a game in which my team allowed less than 70 total yards, and another one with a sizeable underdog who was in position to cover for 58 minutes, giving up 14 points in the final four minutes. If that weren’t enough, I had a winner penciled in already before an egregious backdoor cover for which the head coach actually apologized to me and others in a postgame interview. Suffice to say, I was getting a bit peeved, only for Sunday and Monday to arrive and make things worse.
It was good to have Tuesday and Wednesday off to concentrate on baseball. After my Stability Mismatch System blew up again last week, my Best Bets record in college football stands at 14-23 ATS (37%). It’s easily the worst start I have endured in many years. That said, I am not one to panic when it comes to sports betting, as I am primarily a system bettor and I pride myself on being steady and judging over a long haul rather than short stints. For Week 3, this is the final week for my stability plays for 2025. Staying true to my word, I will be using all of the 14 system qualifying games as best bets. I have sprinkled in some other games that have caught my eye…
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2025
NC State (-7.5) at Wake Forest
An intriguing Thursday night ACC tilt for a pair of 2-0 teams. Wake has beaten two bad teams in Kennesaw State and Western Carolina, while NC State has survived a pair of tough contests versus East Carolina and Virginia. This should be a case where being tested and more stable proves an overwhelming benefit for the Wolfpack. Of note, head coach Dave Doeren’s team won its last trip to Winston-Salem in 2023, 26-6. In my opinion, these are two different tiered teams. The better team should pull away and win handily after a competitive first half.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: I got NC State -7.5
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2025
New Mexico at UCLA (-16.5)
UCLA has been a major disappointment in the first two games, losing both to Utah and UNLV. Those are two quality opponents, however. This is the first contest where the Bruins will be heavily favored to win. New Mexico played better than expected versus Michigan, but then only edged Idaho State by 10. Head coach DeShaun Foster needs a coming out party for his transfer QB Nico Iamaleava here, and with just four returning starters back from a unit that allowed 36 PPG for the Lobos last year, this should be the defense to get it against. It’s put up or shut up time for UCLA.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 16.5 points with UCLA
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2025
Central Michigan at Michigan (-27.5)
Central Michigan has been feisty and competitive in the opening weeks of the 2025 season despite overall instability for new head coach Matt Drinkall. However, going into Ann Arbor for a contest against a talented Michigan team looking for a bounce-back win might be too much to ask. The Wolverines have outscored the Chippewas 145-33 in the last three head-to-head games, and with the Big Ten season starting next week, I expect a focused effort from head coach Sherrone Moore’s team, which will actually be coached by interim coach Biff Poggi this week following Moore’s suspension. I don’t think it will matter, as Michigan shuts down CMU. Look at the line/total combo; oddsmakers are spelling it out for you. The Chippewas will be overwhelmed by the Wolverines’ defense.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Michigan -27.5 is the play for me
Clemson (-3.5) at Georgia Tech
It was believed all along that whatever happened to Clemson in its Week 1 contest versus LSU wouldn’t have a major impact on where the Tigers ended up at the end of the season. Now, it seemed that the loss immediately impacted the Tigers, as they struggled horribly out of the gate against Troy and needed 27 unanswered points to eventually walk away with a 27-16 win. It is that late rally, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s excitement to see it happen last week, that leads me to believe everything has been straightened out for the ACC favorites as they begin conference play in Atlanta vs. Georgia Tech.
The point spread is very modest, and while I don’t believe the game will be easy by any means, I do believe that these two teams are on different tier levels where talent is concerned. It has proven so in the past, with Clemson having won 12 straight games in head-to-head play while going 9-2-1 ATS. The most recent meeting was in 2023, when the teams were closer in talent if you ask me, and the Tigers still throttled the Yellow Jackets 42-21. The atmosphere will be charged at Bobby Dodd Stadium, but I think Swinney’s team has survived its early-season bumps and starts to roll here with conference play beginning.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Clemson -3.5 is the play for me
Pittsburgh (-7) at West Virginia
Pittsburgh got us a Stability Mismatch win last week with a late TD versus Central Michigan, but in truth, the Panthers looked capable of moving the ball at will and scoring at any point in the contest behind QB Eli Holstein. In this renewal of the Backyard Brawl, we are getting a bit of a break on the line because of the rivalry aspect. Typically, underdogs do very well in this head-to-head series, 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight, and it seems oddsmakers are resting their hopes on that. From what we’ve seen thus far in 2025, Pitt is a much more talented and stable team than West Virginia, who is 1-1 for new head coach Rich Rodriguez, and coming off a loss to Ohio U.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Lay the 7 points with Pitt at WVU
Washington State at North Texas (-6)
Washington State didn’t seem like a picture of instability last week, as it crushed San Diego State, but this game will be a totally different and unique test. A trip to Denton and North Texas awaits, a rarity for a former Power 5 team. The Mean Green look potent on offense, having put up 84 points in the first two games, with QB Drew Mestemaker already throwing for 5 TDs against zero interceptions. I would have to assume that UNT will relish this opportunity in front of the home folks. This will be the Cougars’ first road tilt of 2025 and follows a big homecoming victory last week. This game clearly has the look of a line in which someone “knows something,” especially after it moved from -4.5 to -6 in quick fashion.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: North Texas (-6) wins in a potential hidden mismatch
USC (-21) at Purdue
I have a Purdue Over 2.5 season wins hanging in the balance after their 2-0 start, but this is exactly where I thought new head coach Barry Odom and the Boilermakers would be at this point. Playing red-hot USC will be a totally different animal than Ball State and Southern Illinois, however. As it is, this program has lost its last eight games ATS as a home dog, and it might take a while for Odom to reestablish some home-field edge. I used the term red-hot to describe the Trojans right now as they are #2 in the country in scoring at 66 PPG and quietly sneaking onto experts’ radars as a potential CFP contender. For as much as head coach Lincoln Riley’s teams have struggled on the Big Ten road so far, ask yourself this. If USC scores 38+ points as expected by the line/total combo, can Purdue keep up with enough to cover?
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: My money is on USC (-21) to keep rolling
South Florida at Miami (FL) (total 56.5)
How crazy is it that this matchup in Coral Gables has become one of the most anticipated games on the Week 3 slate? Both teams are ranked, which leads me right into a key betting system that will serve as the basis for my belief about what happens on Saturday: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-18 (69%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 22-7 (75.9%).
Most public bettors look for high-scoring shootouts in games like this, assuming USF will have to score to stay in the game. They are also assuming we are still looking at the porous Miami defense of a year ago. So far, that unit looks much improved, as it should with eight starters back. At the same time, the Bulls, who also had eight starters back defensively, have held two quality offenses, which combined to score about 33 PPG last year, to just 11.5 PPG. With 70% of the money at DraftKings on the Over, I’ll go the other way.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Under 56.5 in USF-Miami is the play for me
Liberty (-6.5) at Bowling Green
Watching Liberty these first couple of games, the Flames seem to be among the most unstable stable teams I can recall in recent years. For whatever reason, things just don’t seem to be clicking for head coach Jamey Chadwell since the unexpected undefeated run to the Fiesta Bowl in 2023. His team is only 3-11 ATS since. However, it looks like oddsmakers have made a massive drop off in expectations for Liberty this week, as they are under a TD favorite against a Bowling Green team that has been quite underwhelming in its first two games for new head coach Eddie George. His defense had just one starter back this season, making it a must-thrive offensive week for the Flames. With the expectations now down a lot, I expect a better effort from Liberty.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Liberty -6.5 is the play for me
Florida Atlantic (+2.5) at Florida International
There has been nothing like a rivalry game versus Florida International to ignite the Florida Atlantic program in recent years. Overall, since former head coach Lane Kiffin left after the 2019 season, the FAU program has struggled, but that hasn’t taken anything away from the disdain for FIU nor their ability to dominate the Panthers. How bad has the recent series been? Well, since FIU’s last head-to-head win in 2016, the Owls are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS while scoring 46.1 PPG! The fewest they have scored in any game has been 37 points. Now they find themselves as an underdog for the first time since 2018. By the way, Kiffin’s team won 49-14 in that one.
Can this year’s FAU team maintain that domination, and in particular, the prolific offensive output? With QB Kaden Veltkamp, a transfer from Western Kentucky, under center, I believe they can and will. After a slow start at Maryland, Veltkamp responded by throwing for 309 yards and 5 TDs last week. He is capable of that here, particularly aided by the motivation of being a rivalry dog.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Let’s go with Florida Atlantic (+2.5) to get the cover and likely win
Ohio U at Ohio State (-31.5)
Sometimes I like to look at a point spread/total combination and consider what oddsmakers are telling us. In this case, with a -31.5/51.5 combination, they are indicating that Ohio State should win about 41 or 42 to 10. That doesn’t seem too unrealistic, particularly the Ohio U 10 points part. In nine games hosting MAC foes since 2014, the Buckeyes have allowed 8.2 PPG. It would seem that this point spread and their ability to cover it will hinge entirely on how much confidence the offense got from the 70 points and 651 yards it put up on Grambling last week.
As it is, in those nine games versus MAC foes I just described, OSU averaged 57.1 PPG while topping the 50-point mark all but twice. Going back to the Grambling game, the domination leads to this system in play: Over the course of the last twelve years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 142-107 ATS (57%). I believe Ohio’s upset over a rebuilding West Virginia team last week bought us some points, too.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Ohio State (-31.5) rolls over another MAC program
Western Michigan at Illinois (-27.5)
Head coach Bret Bielema has the Illinois program on a rapidly upward trajectory right now, and his team comes off a very impressive win at Duke last Saturday. The Illini were a very popular pick to be upset in that game, yet rolled to a 45-17 decision. Could this week’s matchup versus Western Michigan present a letdown opportunity, especially with a line sitting at -27.5 and a huge trip to Indiana on deck? Yes, maybe, but it could also be another chance for what seems to be a very hungry team looking for respect to prove itself again. This team hasn’t been good long enough to consider taking opponents for granted. Oddsmakers could be pointing to an unavoidable rout with this big line.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Illini (-27.5) take care of business versus WMU
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern (-4)
Jacksonville State came up with a massive win last week over Liberty to put itself in the conversation of contenders for the Conference USA crown in 2025. Not much was expected of the Gamecocks in what was figured to be a massive rebuild under new head coach Charles Kelly. Instead, early returns suggest that this is an easier transition than thought. That said, JSU faces a peculiar line set up here against a Georgia Southern team that is 0-2 and has been outscored by a 101-34 margin. The Eagles have played two offensive juggernauts, however, and this will be their first game at home, where they are 13-5 in the three previous seasons under head coach Clay Helton. Is Sun Belt/CUSA talent disparity the reason for GSU being favored? Or is JSU instability finally going to catch up?
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: I have Georgia Southern (-4) to get a comfortable win at home
New Mexico State (+10) at Louisiana Tech
From what we’ve seen in the early going, it wouldn’t appear that either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech are a whole lot better or worse than a year ago. In which case, when these two teams met a year ago in Las Cruces, it was an incredibly competitive and rather even game. The Aggies won that game 33-30 as double-digit dogs in overtime, while holding a very slight 364-360 yardage edge. It actually sets the Bulldogs up for a revenge system scenario, which suggests to fade them: Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 109-122 ATS (47.2%) since 2016. Getting back to the current status of these teams, LTU put up only 262 yards against SE Louisiana and 154 against LSU, not exactly the type of production I’m looking for out of a double-digit favorite. Plus, NMSU has only allowed 17 points in its first two games. If you need more, Louisiana Tech is 11-20 (35.5%) ATS in Conference games over the last four seasons.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Let’s take the +10 points here with New Mexico State
Massachusetts at Iowa (-35.5)
There is always a natural fear associated with laying big points on Iowa, regardless of how it plays, simply because you wonder whether or not they even have the offense to eclipse the point spread mark. Here, the Hawkeyes are laying 33.5 points to a UMass team that might be among the worst in all of FBS. The Minutemen actually lost at home to Bryant last week, 27-26. Iowa is reeling from another late loss to its in-state rival ISU, but for what it’s worth, my power ratings say Iowa should be favored by -38.2 here, well beyond the number. Plus, for those still worried, head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team has scored 34 points or more in six of eight home games since the start of last season.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Iowa (-35.5) overwhelms UMass here
Navy (-14) at Tulsa
Navy is on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run versus Tulsa in head-to-head play and has scored 34.5 PPG in those contests. The last time out, in 2022, was a 51-21 decision, and that was before third-year HC Brian Newberry and his more prolific offense even came into play. This year’s Midshipmen attack is loaded, with 13 starters back overall, and eight on offense, including dynamic QB Blake Horvath. They have already scored 90 points in their 2-0 start to 2025. Points shouldn’t be a problem here, considering Tulsa allowed 21 to a weak New Mexico State offense in a 7-point loss. New head coach Tre Lamb began his tenure a few weeks ago with an underrated 35-7 blowout of Abilene Christian, only for it to unravel last week in the upset loss in Las Cruces. Oh, and by the way, Navy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as road chalk, and from this week’s CFB Analytics Report, Navy is on a 30-7 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: I expect a disciplined and focused effort from Navy (-14)
Air Force (-4) at Utah State
Well, it’s pretty clear after the first two games for Utah State that the Aggies won’t be dropping off much this year under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall despite their “instability.” After winning their opener against UTEP, the Aggies proved to be quite competitive at Texas A&M, refusing to go away at any point despite a talent deficiency. This follows a pattern Mendenhall established at New Mexico last year. This week’s game starts conference play, however, and the point spread is set up in such a way that the game winner also likely covers the number.
Favorites have historically held the edge between these two teams, going 8-3 since they became conference mates in 2013, including the last outing, a 39-21 Falcons’ win in 2023. Air Force, in the 10th year under head coach Troy Calhoun, has just one game under its belt so far, a 49-13 rout of Bucknell. They brought back 13 starters from last year’s 5-7 team, but we don’t know too much about them yet. We will after this game.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Air Force (-4) proves too much for this rebuilding USU team
Middle Tennessee State (+8.5) at Nevada
From the looks of it, Middle Tennessee State got walloped at Wisconsin last week. Under the surface, it was a much different game. The Blue Raiders were down just 14-10 at halftime before the Big Ten’s Badgers put up 28 unanswered points in the second half. Still, MTSU is now 0-2 with another 20-point loss to Austin Peay on its resume, so I would understand if you might be skittish about giving them a chance to be competitive against Nevada here. Why is the line only single digits? Shouldn’t a Mountain West team that has taken on Penn State and beaten a competitive FCS team in Sacramento State be able to take care of business against a lesser CUSA team? Those circumstances make the line look either awful or awfully suspicious. Of course, my power ratings say Nevada -8.2, so it must be the latter. With the line moving towards MTSU, I think we’ll see a competitive game.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Middle Tennessee State (+8.5) proves to be a live dog
Texas State at Arizona State (-14.5)
I have an Arizona State Under 8.5 season wins wager hanging out there, so I wasn’t disappointed to see the Sun Devils come up short against Mississippi State last week. That was, of course, on the road in what was a tremendously charged environment in Starkville. Here, head coach Kenny Dillingham’s team is back in the friendly confines of Tempe, where they were 6-0 SU and ATS last season and opened 2025 with a 38-19 win over NAU. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and seven other returning starters will need to put up some points to cover this tricky number against a Texas State team that has again proven prolific for head coach GJ Kinne, despite only bringing back three starters. The Bobcats have put up 95 points in two impressive wins over EMU and UTSA. They have also yielded 63, which could prove to be their detriment in this one.
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: Arizona State (-14.5) scores early & often and routs TSU
Boston College at Stanford (+12.5)
For as much as Stanford is 0-2, and it would seem that the rebuild under GM Andrew Luck and head coach Frank Reich seems stalled, I would caution putting too much stock into what we’ve seen so far in two road losses. This week’s game will be the Cardinal’s first home contest of the season, and when we last saw them at Palo Alto, they were upsetting Louisville as 21-point underdogs. In the home game prior to that, they lost 27-24 to Wake Forest. This program may finally be building up some home-field advantage over its ACC foes. For this game, there may not be a more advantageous travel/time advantage for another team this season. Not only does BC have to travel over 3,000 miles across the country for the game, but it is also scheduled for 10:30 PM Eastern Time. And with BC coming off the excruciating loss at Michigan State, they’ll have to contend with this betting system: Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 79-109 ATS (42%) since 2011
College Football Week 3 Best Bet: I like Stanford (+12.5) to make this game interesting vs. BC
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