College Football Week 3 Predictions:

How is it already week 3 of the college football season? The offseason drags on for what feels like years and then the season gets here and is gone before you know it. Anyway, we had a decent-not-great betting week in Week 2, where we basically just moved money around and basically broke even. You won’t go broke that way but that’s also not what we’re trying to accomplish, so I’ve studied the results, updated the ratings and am back with some Week 3 early-week bets.

Now, let’s look at our college football Week 3 predictions based on my T Shoe Index projections:

 

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Kansas State (-7) vs Arizona, O/U 56.5

Arizona was a team coming into the season that TSI was lower on than the market, and they haven’t really given me much of a reason to change that stance after giving up 39 points to New Mexico and only beating Northern Arizona by 12. They are 51st in TSI after week 2, while Kansas State has basically been as expected and remains in the TSI top 20. “Rankings” are fine, but “ratings” are what’s most important in betting, and K-State, my friends, has a major ratings advantage in this game.

While the (purple) Wildcats are just 7-point favorites at home with an Over/Under of 56.5, TSI projects Kansas State -14 with a total of 59.5. I think this line is short for two reasons: 1. Factoring in too much of Jedd Fisch’s success at Arizona into the number and 2. Not factoring in Arizona’s FCS matchup with Northern Arizona. TSI has accounted for both of these factors, which to me, is why there’s such a discrepancy. I think K State rolls here against a porous Arizona defense. 

Bet: Kansas State -7 or better

Florida Atlantic vs Florida International (+6), O/U 44

The longer Tom Herman is at FAU, the weirder it seems that he was ever a successful head coach at Houston and then a head coach at all at Texas. The Owls have continued to regress under Herman, as evidenced by their 0-2 start and coming off a 24-7 loss to Army. FIU, conversely, is a program with the opposite trajectory. Maybe it’s the Pitbull effect (kidding, maybe), but the Panthers are on the rise and should definitely not be considered the automatic win they were just a year or two ago. Ask Central Michigan, who just got put in the blender by FIU last weekend.

FAU is a 6-point favorite currently, but I’ll be shocked if this line doesn’t substantially move towards FIU. TSI projects FAU -5, so this isn’t as huge of a number discrepancy as my bets usually are, but when looking at how these teams are trending, I’d make it more like a pick ‘em. I think putting a little something on the moneyline would be decent play here as well.

Bet: FIU +6 (Play to +5)

Miami OH vs Cincinnati (-2.5), O/U 45

Cincinnati suffered a gut-wrenching loss to Pitt last weekend after leading virtually the entire game by multiple scores. Miami oddly had the week off after their slugfest with Northwestern in Week 1. Cincinnati is currently favored by 2.5 with an Over/Under of 45.5 and I like this Under. TSI projects Miami OH -2 with a total of 37, and furthermore, looking at the 2024 data without priors baked in, I’d make this total more like 29.5, so this under is a great value play above the key number of 45. The average offensive ranking in this game is 110th, while the average defensive ranking is 50th. This should be a defensive struggle that produces very little in the way of points.

Bet: Under 45 (Play to 45)

As a bonus, here are my biggest upgrades and downgrades in the T Shoe Index to this point:

Upgrades

Downgrades

For more College Football Week 3 predictions, visit the College Football Week 2 Hub at VSiN.com.

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