College Football Week 3 Stability Score Best Bets:

After last week’s College Football Stability Mismatches produced a record of 7-6 ATS, we are now at 14-10 ATS for the season, and this week’s games will be the last of the season for this system. On the line for this week is the 12-year winning streak of the methodology. Last year, the record going into the final Week 3 of games was three games under-.500, and that last group of mismatches proceeded to go 13-4 ATS. Hopefully, we’ll see that same type of success this week.

I’m here to unveil the Week 3 college football plays that qualify for my long-running system that quantifies the stability level of all FBS teams in college football entering a given season. At this time last year, we had seen 36 different games qualify in the Week 0-2 action. This year, we are only at 2/3 of that, so that should give you an idea of just how much more stability there is in play for 2024. With 13 games qualifying this weekend, we will finish with 37 for the season, 11 shy of last season’s total.

 

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The single most stable team in terms of returning players and coaching staff intact, Virginia Tech, was 0-2 ATS in its qualifying games. Oddsmakers may have locked in on just how “stable” the Hokies supposedly were heading into 2024—specifically last week, when they were overpriced by 3-4 points. At the same time, teams with zero scores like Troy and Michigan are both 0-2 ATS. Both will be fade options again this weekend. Perhaps when this much change occurs, even the experts behind the betting counter have trouble quantifying it.

If you missed the explanation and other full details for the Stability System, or are new to VSiN, I encourage you to go back into the VSiN College Football Betting Guide or in the archived stories from the last two weeks on VSiN.com under my author page and find the articles in which I fully detail the methodology.

I’ve put together a list of the Top College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 3 on the schedule. I have also reattached the updated Stability Chart for all 134 FBS teams.

Arkansas State (+22.5) at Michigan

Stability Advantage: ARKANSAS ST by 14

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)

Steve’s thoughts: We’ve been rewarded in back-to-back weeks with fading Michigan on our stability system. While the Fresno State win/no cover didn’t do much to prove Michigan’s instability, the rout loss to Texas certainly did. This Wolverines team, particularly on offense, is nothing like its predecessor, and oddsmakers haven’t caught up just yet. They remain a 24-point favorite here against an Arkansas State team that has also gone 0-2 ATS so far, but has won both games outright. 

As a reminder, head coach Sherrone Moore’s team went into the season with a college football stability score of ZERO, the lowest possible. Teams like that almost always underperform expectations. In the first two games, Michigan has scored just 21 PPG. They’ll need plenty more than that to cover against a Red Wolves team that has put up 31 PPG to date.

Massachusetts (+4.5) at Buffalo

Stability Advantage: MASSACHUSETTS by 11

Saturday, 1:00 p.m. (CBSN)

Steve’s thoughts: Buffalo was also a winning fade play last week on our system at Missouri, although to be honest, the Tigers were fortunate to cover in the 38-0 decision, and the Bulls’ defense held up better than expected. In this case, head coach Pete Lembo’s team will be favored—interesting, since Buffalo is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games as chalk vs. FBS opponents. 

UMass is still looking for its first win of 2024 (0-2 start), but has shown some spark offensively in the first two outings, gaining 356 YPG, matching the 2023 output exactly. That improved offensive effort has helped the Minutemen to go 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.

Texas A&M at Florida (+4.5) 

Stability Advantage: FLORIDA by 9

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Steve’s thoughts: This game could rightfully be renamed the desperation bowl, as both teams suffered devastating losses in statement games in Week 1. Another such loss here might wipe them out for the season. Never mind that both teams rebounded to beat FCS opponents. These programs need to win big-time games here and now. 

Head coach Billy Napier’s team was without starting QB Graham Mertz in its 45-7 win over Samford last week, but supposedly, Mertz is healthy and will be given the nod again for this contest. Should he not play, the Gators would no longer be a stability mismatch qualifying team. It was the Miami loss in the opener that has fans concerned, as Florida was also a home dog in that contest and was trounced 41-17. 

However, the Aggies have their own problems, sitting at 0-2 ATS and with a blemish on the won-lost log to a Notre Dame team that last week lost to Northern Illinois. The luster of that opening week game has certainly faded, leaving even more question marks facing head coach Mike Elko’s team. For what it’s worth, underdogs have won outright and ATS in all three games these teams have played as SEC foes since 2017.

Washington State (+4) at Washington

Stability Advantage: WASHINGTON ST by 12

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)

Steve’s thoughts: Washington was another fade winner on our college football stability system last week, as the Huskies struggled to get rid of a pesky Eastern Michigan team in a 30-9 decision. Those are exactly the types of scores that build this system’s success. On the surface, it looks like Washington won comfortably, and at 2-0 now, there probably isn’t a whole lot of concern about new head coach Jedd Fisch and his team’s instability. Could this be the week it catches up to the Huskies? 

The matchup looks tough, and the game is being played at the Seahawks field. Washington State has looked fantastic in its first two games of 2024, routing both Portland State and Texas Tech by a combined 107-46 margin. The Cougars have gained an extremely potent and balanced 526.5 YPG on offense, split nearly equally on the ground and through the air. WaSU (+14.5) also gave Washington one of its toughest games of the season a year ago, losing 24-21 but outgaining the Huskies 381-306 on the day. Surely, with all that has happened in the last year with these programs’ conference alignments, head coach Jake Dickert’s Cougars will be anxious to prove something in this huge rivalry tilt.

Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State 

Stability Advantage: OREGON by 13

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Steve’s thoughts: I just detailed the other huge West Coast rivalry game pitting former conference foes against one another. Well, the annual renewal of the once-titled “Civil War” is on tap for Saturday in Oregon. The visiting Ducks are looking for a big effort to kick into gear after what has been an unexpectedly slow start to the season. They are still 2-0 at this point, but there’s no way we have seen the best from QB Dillon Gabriel & Co. In fact, they have failed to cover the point spread in their first two contests by 39.5 and 14.5 points. That is some serious underperformance. 

Perhaps a game against an arch-rival in which they enjoy a huge stability edge will be just what the doctor ordered. Oregon State is also 2-0 and has allowed just 7.5 PPG after a shutout of San Diego State, but neither of the offenses the Beavers have faced to date match the explosive potential of Oregon. Of note, however, the Ducks haven’t won in Corvallis since 2018, and the hosts are on a 4-0 SU and ATS streak in the rivalry.

Troy at Iowa (-22.5)

Stability Advantage: IOWA by 15

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

Steve’s thoughts: A 2-0 start for Iowa looked all but certain in the final minutes in Iowa City this past Saturday before the Hawkeyes allowed a couple of big pass plays and a long field goal to succumb to Iowa State. For all the heartbreak that loss brought on, the Hawkeyes have a great chance to regroup against a rebuilding Troy team that has lost its first two games of the season and looks every bit the part of a ZERO stability score squad for new head coach Gerad Parker. 

The biggest concern for the Trojans will be matching up physically with head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team. They have allowed 212.5 RYPG and 6.5 YPR in those two losses. Meanwhile, Iowa is gaining 222.5 YPG on the ground thus far and is stuffing opponent ground games as usual. The offense of the Hawkeyes, the season’s biggest concern, has also put up 29.5 PPG already. Of note, Ferentz’s team is 6-2 as a favorite of 20+ points since 2018 despite the widely known offensive struggles. For what it’s worth, this is Week 3’s biggest stability score disparity, with an edge of 15. Last week’s biggest was 18, and Texas clobbered Michigan.

UTEP at Liberty (-23.5)

Stability Advantage: LIBERTY by 12

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Steve’s thoughts: Liberty was a big disappointment last week for our college football stability system, eventually winning 30-24 at New Mexico State but coming nowhere close to covering the 22-point chalk spread assigned. The Flames (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) will face a similar line this week but against what looks to be a much weaker opponent in UTEP. 

The Miners are off a 27-24 loss to FCS Southern Utah after getting blasted by Nebraska in the opener. New head coach Scotty Walden’s team was expected to struggle as they brought back just nine starters from last year’s 3-9 season. However, losing to the lone FCS foe makes matching that three-win mark in 2024 tougher. The Miners have scored just 15.5 PPG thus far, and it will be a challenge for them to keep up with a Liberty team that has gained 503 YPG in its first two outings. Head coach Jamey Chadwell is undefeated in nine home games while with the Flames, putting up 41.4 PPG in the process.

South Florida (-11.5) at Southern Miss

Stability Advantage: SOUTH FLORIDA by 12

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

Steve’s thoughts: South Florida unraveled in the fourth quarter at Alabama last Saturday. They otherwise played a terrific game, putting a scare into the Tide for three quarters. The 42-16 final score doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Bulls were in getting us another win for this system. Now, USF plays on the opposite end of the line spectrum, installed as a double-digit favorite at Southern Miss. 

Head coach Alex Golesh’s team was one of the country’s most experienced starting lineups coming back for 2024, and they haven’t disappointed bettors yet, boasting a 2-0 ATS mark so far. They have also rushed for 218.5 YPG in the first two outings, 153.5 yards more than the Golden Eagles have, a massive advantage. Much of that edge comes from the threat brought by QB Byrum Brown, who beats teams with both his legs and his arm. 

USM is off a 35-10 win over SE Louisiana but was tagged 31-0 by Kentucky a week earlier. The Wildcats then lost 31-6 to South Carolina, leaving the jury still out on their 2024 strength. Don’t be swayed by the final quarter last week in Tuscaloosa. There’s a reason this line is as big as it is.

Toledo (+9.5) at Mississippi State

Stability Advantage: TOLEDO by 10

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Steve’s thoughts: You won’t see a whole lot of games in betting college football where a MAC team is a single-digit underdog on the road at an SEC program. However, it can happen when the stability levels of each team are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Toledo is not only relatively stable returning for 2024, but also talented, as demonstrated by the 87-33 point margin they’ve built up in the first two games. 

QB Tucker Gleason is off to a very good start, posting a 6-0 TD-Int ratio in the two wins. Mississippi State has some concerns in this first season under head coach Jeff Lebby, and his team’s weaknesses were exposed at Arizona State last week in a 30-23 loss. At his point, it is arguable that the Bulldogs are the worst team in the SEC. They’ll be out to prove that is not the case here, but Toledo is a dangerous and capable opponent. If they aren’t overwhelmed by the SEC atmosphere in Starkville, I would expect the Rockets to compete.

New Mexico at Auburn (-28)

Stability Advantage: AUBURN by 11

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Steve’s thoughts: Sometimes, a team’s bad underperformance in one week leads to value in the next. At least, I hope that is the case with Auburn on Saturday, as the Tigers come off a home stinker versus Cal, a game they lost 21-14 as 12-point favorites. That came just a week after scoring 73 points, perhaps leading to false confidence that head coach Hugh Freeze had this program completely turned around. 

They have a fantastic chance to bounce back this week at Jordan-Hare Stadium against a New Mexico team that has a stability score of 1 for new head coach Bronco Mendenhall. His team already has more ATS wins than stability points, going 2-0 ATS in the first two contests. However, they did give up 61 points to Arizona in a scratch cover last week and have allowed nearly 600 YPG so far. I can imagine QB Peyton Thorne and the rest of the Auburn offensive attack are excited for this one. With the SEC opener on deck, Freeze’s team needs to build some positive momentum here.

BYU (-8.5) at Wyoming

Stability Advantage: BYU by 10

Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET (CBSN)

Steve’s thoughts: I have mentioned that teams with little stability heading into a season often underperform. Sometimes, it is consistent and lasts all season; sometimes, it’s just early, and sometimes it can get downright ugly. I’m not sure any team has played two worse games than rebuilding Wyoming so far has for new head coach Jay Sawvel. It wasn’t even expected to be a rough transition either, as the Cowboys brought back 13 starters from last year’s 9-4 team. However, they have already lost two games, a blowout at Arizona State, and a home contest to FCS Idaho.

It gets a lot tougher this week against a BYU team that has posted two impressive wins to open 2024, most recently an 18-15 upset win at SMU as a 12.5-point underdog. The Cougars face a daunting Big 12 schedule after this one as well, so they need to continue that hot start. Of note, BYU has beaten Wyoming nine straight times in head-to-head play, including three in a row SU and ATS in Laramie by a combined score of 122-31.

New Mexico State at Fresno State (-20)

Stability Advantage: FRESNO ST by 12

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (TRU)

Steve’s thoughts: Perhaps I was quick to dismiss New Mexico State in 2024, as the Aggies played with passion and confidence last week in nearly upsetting Liberty. With a stability score of 1 and very little of anything back from the last two years’ successful teams, how could you blame me? That said, the biggest test to date figures to come here on the road against an experienced Fresno State led by QB Mikey Keene, who has thrown for nearly 600 yards already in two games. This same Bulldogs team blew out NMSU in this past year’s New Mexico Bowl game as well. That Aggies team was favored by 3, and clearly more talented than this one, yet was still outgained 500-200 in the contest. FSU has put up 35.8 PPG in the last five h2h outings, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than that this week.

San Diego State at California (-18)

Stability Advantage: CALIFORNIA by 12

10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Steve’s thoughts: Cal might be a team to watch this college football season as it transfers to the ACC for 2024. Flying well below the radar, the Golden Bears went into Auburn last week and won 21-14 as 12-point underdogs. That kind of win can boost the confidence of any team, but when that team has 14 starters back from its first bowl team in four years, the benefit figures to be even greater. Head coach Justin Wilcox could have an unexpected star in the making in QB Fernando Mendoza, who has seemingly taken off with the experience he gained last year. He was very sharp at Auburn last week. 

The opponent on Saturday in Berkeley is a San Diego State team that has opened up its shiny new stadium this season by losing both games ATS. The Aztecs were shut out by Oregon State last week, a team that had its own set of question marks for 2024. New SDSU head coach Sean Lewis had some huge offenses at Colorado and Kent State, but this Aztecs team mustered just seven first downs and 179 yards against the Beavers. Cal’s defense looked very strong against a much more potent Auburn offense last week, making this week’s matchup challenging for Lewis.

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