College football line moves for Week 4
*Lines listed are opening numbers*
Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon Ducks (-16.5, 70.5)
It would seem those who shape the market have had their fill of Colorado. Oregon opened at DraftKings as 16.5-point favorites on the overnight line on Saturday, but by the time College Lines Revealed had ended the Ducks were laying 20.5 points.
Colorado was fortunate to grab a win over its in-state rival on Saturday night. Jay Norvell elected to punt the ball back to Shedeur Sanders and the Buffalo offense instead of attempting to seal the game on a 4th-and-2 from the Colorado 40-yard-line, and Norvell then compounded that mistake by refusing to attempt a potential game-winning two-point conversion in overtime.
In the end, the Buffaloes defense was shredded for 488 total yards – 399 of which came through the air – and they enter this week 94th in opponent yards per play (5.9) and 114th in opponent yards per game (460.3). A team might be able to start 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS with those statistics when facing the likes of Nebraska and Colorado State, but that will not fly against Oregon.
Colorado must also deal with the loss of Travis Hunter, who is expected to miss time with an injury suffered on a violent hit early in the win over Colorado State. That is a starting wide receiver and defensive back that will not be available for the Buffaloes. DraftKings trading manager Matt Grill told us the value of Hunter could be worth about a point, and it is likely why we saw this line get pushed from 18.5 to the current line of 20.5 dominating the board.
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (PK, 52.5)
The offseason number for this contest was Clemson -3 but three weeks of regular season results has caused the betting market to alter this number. Circa Sports opened PK on Sunday, and DraftKings opened Florida State as 2.5-point favorites. The line has settled in at Florida State -1.5 across the board.
It does make some sense that this number would move from where the offseason line opened, but is what bettors have seen from both of these teams enough to make this change? Clemson lost to Duke to open the regular season and scuffled with Charleston Southern for a quarter, but Florida State is not without its flaws.
The Seminoles gave up 332 yards and 7.9 yards per play in the first half of their win over LSU to open the season. On Saturday, Boston College pushed Florida State to the brink with 457 total yards of offense. This is a defense that has shown some warts early – specifically when it comes to containing big plays – so should this line really swing four points in their favor?
Judging by the early market moves this is going to close with Florida State as a road favorite, but a road game in Death Valley is a brutal spot for any team, even one with national championship aspirations.
Other Games
Maryland Terrapins (-4, 52.5) at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State was absolutely cooked by Michael Penix Jr. and Washington on Saturday, and the betting market has seen enough. The Spartans gave up 713 total yards and 41 points at home to the Huskies. Now, they must deal with the spread attack of Maryland. Circa Sports opened this line at Maryland -4 but bettors on Sunday jumped on the Terps and drove the line to -6 consensus. It would seem the power rating on Spartans is bottoming out.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks (-4, 47)
Mississippi State is not a good football team. The Bulldogs were given five turnovers against Arizona, but needed overtime to dispatch the Wildcats. LSU then went into Davis Wade Stadium and wiped the grass with Mississippi State on Saturday. It’s no surprise that bettors came in on Sunday and laid the points with South Carolina. Spencer Rattler has the sixth-best PFF grade despite having the most dropbacks while under pressure, and he has led the record to a 2-1 ATS record thus far this season.
UTSA Roadrunners at Tennessee Volunteers (-13, 58.5)
UTSA quarterback Frank Harris missed the Roadrunners’ loss to Army on Friday, and his status for this game against Tennessee remains a question. The bettors who shape the market on Sunday – including professional handicapper Paul Stone – came in and bet the Volunteers in large part because of the questionable status of Harris. Circa Sports opened this line at Tennessee -13 but within minutes the Vols were laying 20 points.
Bet Recommendations
Ohio State Buckeyes (-3, 54) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
In the offseason Ohio State was a 7.5-point favorite over Notre Dame, but this weekend the Buckeyes opened as just 3-point favorites at a vast majority of shops. The line change here stems from two factors: Kyle McCord’s slow start for Ohio State and Notre Dame’s production through the first three games. The play of the Fighting Irish might call for an upgrade of some sort, but this is a very big upgrade for a team that has played no one.
It might be foolish to get in front of the Irish at this point – especially at home – but I am willing to do it.
Ohio State is an incredible defensive team. The Buckeyes are second in both yards per play allowed (3.4) and total yards allowed (218.5). This will be a massive step up in terms of competition for Sam Hartman, who does have an offensive line in front of him that has questions at both guard spots.
This is a spot where I’m willing to go against the market move, but it will be worth waiting here. The market is unlikely to move in the Buckeyes direction, and if I can get under a field goal it will be something I will pounce on.
Bet Recommendation: Ohio State (-3)
