College Football Week 4: Illinois vs. Nebraska

Three Friday night college football games are headlined by a ranked Big Ten battle in Lincoln. Illinois vs. Nebraska will draw the most eyes and attention, but we’ve also got Stanford’s ACC debut a long way from home against Syracuse and a very interesting matchup with Washington State hosting San Jose State off of a huge win in the Apple Cup against Washington.

I’ll look at all three games for Friday night, beginning with the main event between the Illini and Cornhuskers.

 

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Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7.5, 43)

8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Just as I was getting ready to write up this preview, betting action came in heavy on the underdog Illini, who were last ranked in 2022. It is crazy to think that Nebraska hasn’t been in the AP Top 25 since 2019, but a 3-0 start with a decisive win over Colorado was enough to put the Huskers in the poll.

Nebraska hasn’t left Lincoln yet. They’ll go to Purdue next week, but the four-game homestand wraps up Friday night with this matchup. This is Illinois’s first foray outside of Champaign, so we’ll see how second-year starting QB Luke Altmyer handles what should be a raucous atmosphere at Memorial Stadium.

The Huskers won 20-7 last year to snap a three-game losing streak against the Illini. This season’s Nebraska team has a new QB, though, in Dylan Raiola, who has looked the part through three starts. The freshman has a 73.8% completion rate and a 5/1 TD/INT ratio in wins over UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa. He’s been helped by a running back trio of Dante Dowdell, Emmett Johnson, and Rahmir Johnson that has combined for 395 yards on 66 carries, as well as top target Isaiah Neyor, who has 12 grabs for 187 yards.

Second-year OC Marcus Satterfield led his team to 8.8 yards per play last week, but they have picked up 5.7 yards per play in the two FBS games. The Illini defense should provide a stiffer test, as they’ve held their FBS opponents to 4.9 yards per play thus far. If nothing else, the Illini should stack up better in the trenches than Nebraska’s first three opponents.

It should be a good test for Raiola, who gets his first conference game in a Top 25 matchup. Altmyer hasn’t played a Top 25 matchup, but he did get a lot of experience last season as the starter for Bret Bielema’s bunch. Altmyer started the season with an ugly 3/7 TD/INT ratio over his first three starts, but settled down and posted a 10/3 ratio the rest of the way. He threw for 289 yards in the losing effort against Nebraska, but that was on 47 pass attempts.

Raiola is an upgrade over Heinrich Haarberg, but the 20-7 game last season was no accident. The two teams just barely got over 600 yards of offense. I think this is another low-scoring affair. I’ll be curious to see how Nebraska holds up in the trenches against their first real test of the season in that area. From a side standpoint, I lean Illinois with the lower-scoring expectation.

Pick: Illinois/Nebraska Under 43

Other Friday Games

Stanford Cardinal at Syracuse Orange (-9, 57.5): Both teams are off of early-season bye weeks, as Stanford has a miracle cover in a loss against TCU and a blowout win over Cal Poly. Syracuse has scored 69 (nice) points in wins over Ohio and Georgia Tech.

Stanford was in a dogfight with Cal Poly until pulling away with 27 unanswered points in the second half. It was a 7-7 game with 21 seconds left when Justin Lamson scored to give Stanford a halftime lead. Hard for me to love their offensive production with what Kyle McCord and the Orange have been doing with LeQuint Allen and Oronde Gadsden healthy.

A Syracuse lean here. My Power Ratings are right on the number, but Stanford’s performance against TCU was very misleading, as they were outgained 457-286 and were -2.1 in yards per play differential.

San Jose State Spartans at Washington State Cougars (-12, 55.5): We saw some Tuesday movement on this game, as a sharp group released San Jose State in the early afternoon ET. Washington State is in a brutal situational spot after an emotional win over Washington, made even more special by the fact that the Big Ten wanted UDub and no conference wanted Wazzu.

SJSU beat Air Force on the road, so they’ve got a win under their belts away from home. They’ve also beaten Sac State and Kennesaw State for first-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo.

Wazzu gave up a ton of yards to Texas Tech two weeks ago and I can’t get that out of my head, which is one of many reasons why I was on Washington last week. Obviously that didn’t go well. I lean with San Jose State here getting a big number with a decent QB in Emmett Brown and a big-time playmaker in Nick Nash, plus a tough turnaround for Jake Dickert’s team.

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