Iowa vs. Rutgers
A week after there were two Big 12 games and a stunning Mountain West over Big Ten upset, the Week 4 Friday slate is a little bit weaker. We’re also going from three games down to two, as FOX will carry Iowa vs. Rutgers and ESPN will have Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State.
Iowa vs. Rutgers is actually quite an interesting matchup, as the Scarlet Knights have found a vertical passing game and are halfway to bowl eligibility with 139 points in three games. The Hawkeyes continue to limp around the field offensively, but they’ll be looking to get off on the right foot in Big Ten conference action as a road favorite in Piscataway.
Iowa vs. Rutgers College Football Odds
Iowa -2.5 (-110) // Rutgers+2.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 17, 9 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Iowa vs. Rutgers Game Preview
8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Iowa is 4-0 in the head-to-head series since Rutgers joined the Big Ten back in 2014. The Scarlet Knights have never been favored and it doesn’t appear that they will be this week, but after being +13, +20.5, and +7.5, they’re under a field goal dog for the second time in this quasi rivalry. Iowa was -1.5 at home in 2023 and won 22-0.
The body of work for Rutgers has improved on a weekly basis, as the three-point win over Ohio looks better now after the Bobcats knocked off West Virginia and hung around with Ohio State for a while. Against a second straight MAC opponent, Rutgers trounced Miami of Ohio before a controlled scrimmage in a 60-10 win over Norfolk State.
Iowa blew out UMass by 40 last week in a game that basically told us nothing about the Hawkeyes, given that the Minutemen lost to Bryant at home the week prior. The win over Albany didn’t tell us anything either. So, we only have one relevant data point for Iowa and it is the 16-13 loss to Iowa State in the annual rivalry game. The Hawkeyes mustered 214 yards in that one. Overall, even with effectively two FBS opponents, QB Mark Gronowski has only thrown for 306 yards and completed 58.7% of his passes.
A by-committee approach has been employed to replace Kaleb Johnson. Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson have been the two best backs thus far, but Williams is the only running back with a carry over 17 yards. Iowa pass catchers have averaged just 8.5 yards per reception. This is not an explosive offense at all.
Meanwhile, Rutgers has sparked something in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis, who is off to an outstanding start after a pedestrian 2024 campaign. He’s completed nearly 73% of his passes with a 7/0 TD/INT ratio. He only completed 53.9% of his passes last season. Obviously Iowa’s defense, especially with what they’ve historically done in the secondary, is a major step up in class, but Kaliakmanis looks more comfortable in the pocket than he ever has.
It has helped to have a big 6-foot-6 target in KJ Duff, but 5-foot-10 possession receiver DT Sheffield from North Texas has given Rutgers layers of receivers and has allowed for extended route trees from the other guys. He’s been a huge pickup. The improved passing game has also opened up some holes for Antwan Raymond and CJ Campbell Jr., who are both averaging well over five yards per carry.
Iowa has not played good opponents, but they’ve only allowed 14 plays of 10+ yards, which is tied for fourth in the nation. So, we’ll see how this improved Rutgers offense looks. The Hawkeyes are fourth in the nation in yards per play allowed with 3.49, but Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings have them 225th in the nation out of 265 graded teams. Rutgers is 191st.
So, this is a tall test both ways, but I’ll give the nod to Rutgers here. Gronowski seems very limited as a passer and Rutgers has the more balanced offense on paper and in practice. After allowing 6.2 yards per play last season, the Scarlet Knights went portal shopping and also hired a new DC in Robb Smith, so that side of the ball looks improved as well.
Pick: Rutgers +2.5
Other Friday Game
Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-13, 55.5): The Cowboys have had a lot of time to sit and think about the 69-3 loss that they suffered two weeks ago against Oregon. You could argue that the bye came at a good time, but Mike Gundy’s days do seem numbered in Stillwater. He brought in the 35th-ranked transfer class per 247 Sports, but TCU transfer Hauss Hejny was hurt in the opener after winning the starting job.
Still, Tulsa, while improved under Tre Lamb, should be outclassed and outmanned in a game such as this. The nice win over Abilene Christian has been erased by two poor efforts against New Mexico State and Navy. No bet from me here, but if Oklahoma State has issues, that’s a really, really bad sign going forward.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 4 games on our Pro Picks Page.
