Rice vs. Charlotte
After one more tune-up against a FCS opponent, conference play gets underway for the Owls and 49ers to kick off Week 4 of the college football season. Rice vs. Charlotte isn’t exactly a headline-grabbing game, but we’ve seen some significant line movement for the American Conference matchup. So far, only Navy, UAB, and Tulsa have played league games in the conference formerly known as the AAC. That changes on Thursday.
Bettors banged this line early and often on the side of the home underdog. Rice opened as high as -6.5 in the market, but that number was short-lived. Rice has the only FBS win between the two programs, but the market makers spoke loud and clear earlier this week. That being said, Rice is still favored to come away with the victory.
How to Watch Rice vs. Charlotte
Where: ESPN
When: Thursday, September 18, 7:30 p.m. ET
Rice vs. Charlotte College Football Odds
Rice -2.5 (-110) // Charlotte +2.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 9, 9 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Rice vs. Charlotte Game Preview
Rice
Gap responsibility is the most important thing against Rice nowadays, as the Owls have only thrown 41 passes through three games. First-year head coach Scott Abell came over from Davidson to install a lot of option-esque concepts and the Owls have the second-most rush attempts in the nation. They only trail Navy, but it is worth noting that Navy has averaged better than 6.6 yards per carry and Rice has just 4.35, including just 3.55 yards per tote against FBS foes.
Personally, I am a proponent of bad teams trying different things. Rice is bad for a variety of reasons, including a small enrollment and pretty strict academic standards. The problem is that trying to run an option-based attack in a conference with Navy and Army probably won’t catch opponents off-guard at all. The service academies are simply more proficient at it and conference defenses prepare for it at least once on an annual basis.
Navy did beat Charlotte 51-17 last season, so maybe there is some hope for the Owls’ ground-and-pound approach. Chase Jenkins had 47 carries for just 144 yards, but running backs Quinton Jackson and Daelan Alexander have averaged 4.6 and 4.7 yards per carry, respectively. The problem is that the longest carry between those three is Jenkins’ run of 21 yards. Rice doesn’t create explosives with this style of offense and that requires some extreme third-down proficiency. Through two FBS games, the Owls have only converted one out of every three third-down attempts.
The defense has played well for the Owls, allowing just 4.9 yards per play. But, their win and suffocating defensive effort against Louisiana isn’t aging well with how bad the Ragin’ Cajuns look this season. Houston had over 6.5 yards per play, though Charlotte’s offense is absolutely not on that level. Still, Rice’s defensive numbers are likely to go in the opposite direction as American play moves forward.
Charlotte
The 49ers are not a Power Four program, but they do have Power Four QBs. Conner Harrell, formerly at UNC, has completed over 67% of his tosses for 664 yards with a 4/2 TD/INT ratio. He’s also chipped in two of the team’s three rushing touchdowns. The 49ers have been pretty one-dimensional on offense, at least from a production standpoint. They have 97 pass attempts against 100 rush attempts, but the ball carriers have averaged just 2.8 yards per carry and a long of 17 yards.
Fortunately, Harrell has been on target with a lot of his throws and the receivers have collectively averaged over 12 yards per snag. E. Jai Mason has three of the team’s four receiving scores after transferring in from Samford. Even with their passing prowess, the 49ers are just 95th in the nation in yards per play and had over 7.8 yards per play against Monmouth last weekend after being held to 3.9 YPP by App State and North Carolina.
Defensively, the 49ers got shredded last week through the air, as the Hawks got 410 yards and four TD passes from Derek Robertson. Harrell was 26-of-30 for 382 yards to save the day, but Charlotte’s back seven got gashed up and down the field. Rice, of course, can’t throw the forward pass with much effectiveness, so we’ll see if Charlotte can hold up in the trenches. They only allowed 2.1 YPC to Monmouth after App State and North Carolina had 4.8 and 4.5 YPC, respectively.
Rice has allowed opponents to convert 50% of their third-down attempts. Charlotte has allowed opponents to convert over 40% of the time. This game comes down to the defense that can get off the field, especially in Charlotte’s case, as Rice’s ball-control style could tire out the 49ers in the second half. Co-DC Kurt Mattix was at San Diego State prior to joining the Ohio staff with head coach Tim Albin in 2024, so he’s got some experience facing the option.
Rice vs. Charlotte Prediction
It is a low total, but I’m looking Under 43.5 here. These two teams have a combined total of 13 plays of 20+ yards in six games, and five of Charlotte’s eight just came in that game against Monmouth. Rice only has five total plays of 20+ yards. Charlotte has allowed 55 plays of 10+ yards, but only three plays of 30+ yards, as the pass defense hasn’t been all that strong, but they’ve kept everything in front of them. As long as we don’t get turnovers leading to short fields, I think this one stays Under.
Rice vs. Charlotte Pick: Under 43.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 4 games on our Pro Picks Page.
