College Football Week 5 Best Bets and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

After a 0-2 start on Thursday and Friday last week, I was able to rally on Saturday with a strong finish, despite a couple of bad breaks. In all, it was a 9-7 week for me, bringing my season-long record to 34-27 ATS (55.7%). Not all of them have been spreads. There have been some totals and some moneylines to go with point spread wagers, but as a way to stay transparent, I keep my record as against the spread (to include totals). That said, I’m off to a better start than last year when I was actually under-.500 at this point in the season and had to save a plus-.500 mark overall with a very strong bowl season. I will try to keep the positive mojo moving forward and press on with our college football Week 5 best bets.

 

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Washington at Rutgers

Friday, 8:00 p.m. (FOX)

Looking closely at the DraftKings Betting Splits for this Friday night contest in New Jersey, the line shows movement of Rutgers -3 to Rutgers now -2.5 despite 64% of the money going in that direction. Almost as if they are trying to draw more action in on the Scarlet Knights. Do they know something here? Is the 3-0 record against what could easily be perceived as three underachieving teams something to be concerned with? I’d say yes, and I think this is the week things turn for head coach Greg Schiano’s club. 

Let’s not forget, Washington is the defending national runners up, and while the Huskies started slowly, they are now getting it going, coming off a dominant 24-5 win at home versus Northwestern. Head coach Jedd Fisch’s team was expected to start slowly, as they had a very low stability score on my scale. There is still a lot of talent left over, particularly on defense, where they are holding teams 17 points below their average scoring outputs. That is a great improvement on last year. 

Transfer QB Will Rogers is also having a nice season, with an 8-0 TD-Int ratio, while his team is gaining 291 YPG passing. That is a dropoff, of course, from Penix, but this team is playing a different way now. Typically, Rutgers has been a better covering team on the road and actually comes into this one, having lost its last seven games ATS at home in conference play when coming off a road victory. Despite the length of travel here for UW, I think Fisch’s team flexes its muscles on Friday.

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Washington +2.5 on Friday night

Eastern Michigan at Kent State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

It’s very rare when so much of my data points in one direction and it coincides with an opportunity to fade one of the worst teams in the country, if not THE worst. That is the case for this early game at Kent State. Let’s get right to the list. First, Kent State is 6-19 (24%) ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog. On top of that,  Eastern Michigan is 38-15 (71.7%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2016. 

There are also two successful systems saying to go against the Golden Flashes: 1) College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 24-34-1 ATS (41.4%) in their last 59 tries. 2) Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 41-72 ATS (36.3%) since 2010. Kent State has lost its last two games 127-0 and is now 0-4 ATS. There is no way this team will have confidence going into Saturday. Fade ’em till they show life.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’m laying the 15-points with Eastern Michigan

Maryland at Indiana

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. (BTN)

How important is the head-to-head series history between two teams when one of them has undergone massive transformation since the last meeting? Well, when the tendencies of the new team fit the trend that has developed in the series, I’d say very important. The Maryland-Indiana series has been a high-scoring one, with eight of the last nine games going Over the total, and at least 60 combined points being scored in the eight Over contests. 

For this year, Indiana and new head coach Curt Cignetti look as good offensively as they ever have, scoring over 50 PPG to date. Maryland hasn’t been too shabby on that side of the ball either, scoring 34.8. In fact, both teams are averaging at least 14 points more than their opponents allow per game. In other words, I expect both teams to be able to score in this one, and the 53.5 total seems to not reflect it.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Maryland-Indiana over 53.5

Buffalo at Connecticut

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

In the aftermath of reviewing last Saturday’s games with my son AJ, who is the co-creator of the Analytics Reports each week, he mentioned to me that he felt his play on Buffalo at NIU last weekend was one of the easier games on the board. He claimed that Buffalo’s defense was way too good for them to get blown out. As it was, the Bulls played very well defensively in that game, holding the Huskies to 20 points. My numbers for this week’s game show the Bulls holding a different Huskies team down, and once again they would appear to be a very live underdog.

 Only 14% of the betting handle was on Buffalo this week as of Wednesday too, so not many public bettors are feeling the same. You know I like that. While head coach Pete Lembo’s team didn’t exactly explode offensively vs. NIU, just getting the win helps them earn this system’s backing: Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 74-43 ATS (63.2%) in the follow-up contest.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s get behind Buffalo +5.5, and don’t discount the chance at another upset

Colorado at UCF

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Doesn’t it feel a little bit like Colorado is constantly battling for any type of respect from fans and oddsmakers? Admittedly, Coach Prime’s team has some real weak spots, and can prove to be as offensively inconsistent as any team out there. But they can also be as prolific at their best. This past week, the Buffaloes and their stars, QB Shadeur Sanders and WR/DB Travis Hunter, stepped up when they needed it, delivering a thrilling and critical victory over Baylor. 

Finally, the betting public has chosen to get behind them as big road underdogs here, and it actually fits into one of the few situations I track where they actually win: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). UCF is 3-0 SU and ATS to date but against a lighter schedule than Colorado faced. The Knights haven’t fared well when expected to win in league play either, having lost their last seven games ATS as a favorite in conference play. I expect Colorado to compete here.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Colorado +14 at UCF

Nebraska at Purdue

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)

If you were like me on Friday night watching Nebraska struggle to separate from Illinois and eventually losing in overtime, your reaction was probably “same old Nebraska.” It’s very disappointing too, as I thought head coach Matt Rhule’s team had finally turned the corner. Well, if this is the same old Cornhuskers, you have to go back to the trends for this game versus Purdue. 

Among those most definitive angles, you will find that Nebraska is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a Big Ten favorite, underdogs are on a 9-1 ATS run in the Nebraska-Purdue rivalry, and Purdue is 16-11 (59.3%) ATS as an underdog since 2020. To make matters worse for Rhule’s team, 95% of the handle, and 87% of the bets were on his side at DraftKings as of Wednesday. In the case of a big road favorite, that’s not good.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go with Purdue +10 to give Nebraska fits on Saturday

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Admittedly, I was the VSiN “expert” who went out on a limb projecting an Oklahoma State CFP appearance at 8-1. I felt that head coach Mike Gundy’s team had the experience and explosiveness to contend with one of the best running backs in the country. Well, after watching lackluster efforts in their two games against better opponents thus far, I am off the bandwagon. In fact, I think the quest officially ends this week at Kansas State, where the Cowboys have struggled. 

In fact, home teams are on 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS runs in the Oklahoma State-Kansas State rivalry. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back after a strange game at BYU in which they lost 38-9 despite playing poorly for only about an eight-minute stretch. KSU, however, is on a 10-1 ATS run in Big 12 action when coming off a blowout loss of 20+ points. Head coach Chris Kleiman’s team also qualifies for this simple and oft-repeated ranked vs. ranked system: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 173-88 SU and 147-106-8 ATS (58.1%).

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go with Kansas State-5 to rebound versus OSU

Texas State at Sam Houston State

Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

There is a team in Texas right now that is flying very well below the radar that has consistently been one of the best underdogs in the country, and has a chance to make a name for itself in a big way on Saturday. That team is Sam Houston State, who, in just its second year of FBS football, has bolted out to a 3-1 start in 2024, with three wins by 18+ points, and its only blemish at the hands of UCF on the road. Of note here is that San Houston State is 15-4 (78.9%) ATS as an underdog since 2017. 

There will be plenty of motivation here for the Bearkats as well, as they are facing a Texas State team that arrived on the national scene last year by winning eight games, including a season-opening victory over Baylor and a blowout bowl game decision. SHSU currently has an Effective Strength Rating of 11.5 on my scale in comparison to TSU’s 14.5. That is just a three-point difference, and leaves me wondering if they are simply being badly overlooked in being installed as 8-point dogs here. Teams are having success throwing the ball against the Bobcats, and SHSU has demonstrated a very balanced offensive attack so far. I like the underdog chances here.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Sam Houston State +8 in an all-Texas battle

BYU at Baylor

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

Talk about two teams coming in on completely different emotional levels. BYU is off one of its biggest wins in years, crushing Kansas State at home 38-9 in front of what was a raucous home crowd. The Cougars are now 4-0, both SU and ATS and setting bigger goals for themselves than they had a month ago. At the same time, Baylor tries to picks itself up after losing in OT at Colorado following a last second bomb to tie it in regulation, and a fumble lost while heading into the end zone in overtime. 

According to my Effective Strength numbers after Week 4, BYU is the 16th-best team in the country, but the rankings and the overall respect meter don’t agree. That in itself can provide motivation. Not to mention the chip on the shoulder the Cougars should have here from being installed as 3.5-point underdogs here. No worries, the betting public (81%) is backing them still, which is good in the case of road dogs. Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team also gets the backing of a nice system in play because they got such a huge league win without exploding offensively last week: Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 74-43 ATS (63.2%) in the follow-up contest.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s take BYU plus the 3.5 points

South Alabama at LSU

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SEC)

It’s not often that you will get a team coming off back-to-back rout victories of 135-24 that is catching 21.5 points the next time out. That is the case for South Alabama however, who apparently could be due for a big letdown after the huge Appalachian State upset in this non-conference tilt at LSU. There are two such potential “letdown” angles I am looking at: First, South Alabama is 16-34 (32%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2014. Second, both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 131-177-1 ATS (42.5%) over the last decade-plus. With this line sitting at -21.5 points and LSU sporting a 0-4 ATS mark so far, it leads me to believe that those in the know feel that this is going to be a huge offensive breakout game for the Tigers.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’m wiling to lay the big number (-21.5) here with LSU

Iowa State at Houston

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

Prior to its offensive outburst against Arkansas State last week, Iowa State had scored just 20 and 21 points in its first two contests. This is important to me, as I believe the jury is still out as to whether or not this year’s version of the Cyclones is going to be capable offensively or not. They are an experienced bunch with 10 starters back on that side of the ball, but from a unit that only scored 26.2 PPG last year. Why is that important? Well, Houston has been pretty good defensively in the early going, holding its first four opponents 12.9 points below their typical scoring output. If that holds this week, ISU would only get around 18. 

First off, I am not a big fan of double-digit road favorites whose offensive capability is in question, and for two, if the Cyclones only get 18, or even rounded up to 20, are they likely to cover the 14 points? Well, 94% of DK bettors think they are good enough to do so as of Wednesday, and when the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS. That’s just a majority stat, at 94% it’s a potential death blow in my opinion.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s take Houston +14 at home versus Iowa State

Tulsa at North Texas

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

For this week’s college football betting board, we have one of the nation’s best performing road teams for bettors lining up for a nice revenge spot as well. Without seeing that I was writing about the Tulsa-North Texas matchup on Saturday, I give you credit if you knew the team I was referring to. It’s actually been very underrated just how reliable the Golden Hurricane have been away from home, but Tulsa is 24-8-1 (75%) ATS in Road/Neutral games over the last four seasons. 

For this week, they’ll have the extra motivation of revenge for losing 35-28 at home a year ago. Tulsa is 10-20 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) in revenge mode since 2016. They are also backed by a nice revenge system, noting that teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 207-162 ATS (56.1%) since 2016. It’s hard to lay points with teams allowing 35+ PPG.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll take Tulsa as the +6.5-point underdog

Fresno State at UNLV

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

So much of this week’s focus for the Fresno State-UNLV matchup is going to be about what will be missing for the Runnin’ Rebels, with QB Matthew Sluka opting to transfer out after some sort of NIL confusion or lack of fulfillment. While that is obviously devastating for UNLV both this week and going forward, I have to credit my colleague Jonathan Von Tobel who proclaimed that too many people were overlooking just how good head coach Barry Odom’s defense has become. They are allowing just 13.7 PPG overall and are holding teams to 10.3 points below their scoring averages.

Fresno State boasts similar allowance numbers and has been held to 18 points or less in half of its last eight games, even with returning QB Mikey Keene still running the show. In fact, going back a few years, Fresno State is 27-15-1 (64.3%) Under the total since 2021. Bettors aren’t reacting much to the UNLV QB news either, with 76% of the money still on the Over for this game. I expect this key MWC contest to take on a different, more defensive feel now.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Fresno State-UNLV UNDER 48.5

Arkansas at Texas A&M

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Admittedly, like many others, I was a little down on Arkansas coming into the 2024 season, as I thought the loss of QB KJ Jefferson would have a bigger effect. Instead, dual-threat QB Taylor Green has taken over and led his team to a 3-1 start while averaging over 40 PPG. Like I said, though, I wasn’t alone in my predictive analysis, however, as a snapshot of the line for this game in midsummer had Texas A&M as about an 11.5-point favorite. Instead, A&M is down, Arkansas is up, and this looks to be a very competitive game on Saturday now, probably much more so than the 34-22 Aggies win last year in head-to-head play. 

That game sets the Razorbacks up for a nice revenge system, however: Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 46-29 ATS (61.3%). Head coach Sam Pittman’s team has struggled against opponents who’ve been able to throw the ball up and down the field. The Aggies aren’t that team, especially with the questionable injury status of QB Conner Weigman.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go with Arkansas (+4) to keep this one competitive and threaten the upset

Louisville at Notre Dame

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)

Notre Dame has certainly been a frustrating team to get a handle on this season, but I think Saturday’s home game against Louisville could be a good spot for the Irish as well as a good proving grounds. Louisville has been one of the better teams in the ACC over the last year and a half but if any tendencies with the Cardinals are proving to be reliable, its that they are typically better at home, when favored, and in league games. In fact, Louisville is 5-10 (33.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021. 

This will be head coach Jeff Brohm’s team’s first road contest of 2024, and of course, it is a difficult one in South Bend. I’ve come to know that while unreliable overall, Notre Dame typically does its best work in games that are expected to be competitive, as the Irish are currently on a run of 11-3 ATS as single-digit favorites. Head coach Marcus Freeman’s team also has the big home field edge for ranked games: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 173-88 SU and 147-106-8 ATS (58.1%).

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go with Notre Dame -6.5

Illinois at Penn State

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Although Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss is running a close second lately when it comes to keeping his betting backers happy week in and week out, head coach James Franklin of Penn State still holds the torch. I am willing to place my faith in the fact that this guy knows the point spreads and what his team needs to do to beat them, especially when they are the better team. As proof, Penn State has become a very reliable Big Ten favorite, 17-4 ATS in its last 21. 

For this interesting Big Ten tilt, we have two undefeated teams going at it, so why are we looking at such a significant line? For one, this is a night game in State College, there are very few atmospheres that compare to it in college football, and it will be a tall task for the overmatched Illini to grit their way into making it tight. For two, we have the Nittany Lions qualifying for our famous ranked vs. ranked system double: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 173-88 SU and 147-106-8 ATS (58.1%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 104-19 SU and 76-43-4 ATS (63.9%).

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’m willing to back Penn State laying the big number, -18

Wisconsin at USC

3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Looking at where Wisconsin and USC stand right now, is either team a whole lot different off than you figured they would be at this point? I certainly don’t think so, and for that reason wonder why USC was -4.5 in midsummer but now -16 for this Week 5 tilt. Wisconsin is 2-1, having won the two games they were expected to, and losing the one against Alabama. The Badgers are also 0-3 ATS, a very rare thing for them. 

Having this past week off to get over the Alabama loss and to work in new QB Braedyn Locke should be very advantageous. My logic is backed by data: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 132-99 ATS (57.1%) surge since 2010. USC is 2-1 with a quality win over LSU and a near-miss at Michigan. My guess is the Trojans would have been 2-1 at this point. This will be their first Big Ten home game, and USC has lost its last seven games ATS as a favorite in conference play. This game doesn’t feel like one that should have such a big number. I expect Bucky to compete.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Wisconsin +15.5 in LA

Air Force at Wyoming

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (CBSSN)

We have a battle of winless point spread teams in Laramie this weekend, and typically, when that happens, a team laying points on the road is the last wagering option for me. Most bettors don’t agree, and when I say most, I mean 93% of the handle at DraftKings. Are they watching the same Falcons team that I’ve seen? Anyway, when the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%).

 This also doesn’t even touch on the fact that Laramie has been tough on Air Force in recent years, as Wyoming is on 4-0 SU and 6-0 ATS runs hosting Air Force. The usual high-scoring Falcons failed to reach 28 points in all of those games, averaging just 21.3. Keep in mind, this year’s Air Force team is scoring just 10.3 PPG, the worst offensive unit the program has had in many years. Wyoming certainly isn’t good itself, but the circumstances suggest Air Force isn’t worth anyone’s money this week.

College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll take Wyoming +4 as the home dog

For more College Football Week 5 predictions, visit the College Football Week 5 Hub at VSiN.com.

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