Tracking market ratings on teams is a very important tool in handicapping any sport. It helps a bettor understand how the perception of a team has changed. If the change is too much – either positive or negative – the bettor can act accordingly.

This last weekend we saw both sides of that coin.

 

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Tennessee saw its market rating increase exponentially over the course of the first three weeks of the season. It went from a 4-point underdog in the preseason line against Oklahoma to a touchdown favorite on the road. The Volunteers covered every number in a solid win.

Meanwhile, Florida State seemed to be at the bottom of the barrel with its power rating. The Seminoles laid under a field goal at home to Cal when the game began. It took a late defensive stand, but Florida State held on for its first win and cover of the season.

The market got extremely high on Tennessee, but it turned out it wasn’t high enough. It also got extremely low on Florida State, and that proved to be too low.

Obviously, determining when the market is too high or low is the entire battle of a bettor. If you were like me and went against the market in the two games above, you came away with a small loss.

But, watching the market through this lens will help more often than not in the long run.

College Football Week 5 Odds Report

Northern Illinois Huskies at N.C. State Wolfpack

Open: NCST (-10, 47.5) | Current: NCST (-7, 47)

We saw the market move against N.C. State early in the week last week before it took on Clemson. Some of that might have been due to the questions at quarterback, but we also saw the market buy back on the Wolfpack in the days leading up to kick-off. Perhaps we see similar patterns this week, but once again the bettors who shape the market came in early against N.C. State. Grayson McCall could play this week. His status will likely shape this number, but there is an argument to be made that there is not much of a difference between him and true freshman CJ Bailey. It’s also worth mentioning that the Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils

Open: DUKE (-1, 56.5) | Current: DUKE (-3, 56.5)

The Blue Devils were bet up two points on Sunday, and as of Monday morning they are laying a full field goal. Not the biggest move in the world, but notable as the market is comfortable letting this game sit on a key number. So, why include it here? This is a good example of how a team’s market rating can change after one result. DraftKings opened UNC as a one-point road favorite last week in their lookahead lines. Today, that number has swung four points. It’s never great when a team is blown out and its head coach – Mack Brown, in this case – is offering to retire in order to fix the problem. But, this might be a buy-low opportunity on the Tar Heels.

Colorado Buffaloes at UCF Knights

Open: UCF (-11.5, 60.5) | Current: UCF (-14.5, 63.5)

This contest is likely to be in my colleague Tim Murray’s ‘Let Down Spots’ segment on VSiN PrimeTime. Colorado is coming off a massive comeback win at the gun against Baylor. Now, it must go on the road to face UCF which is coming off a bye week. Perhaps the market is fading the spot for the Buffaloes, as the Knights were bet up a full field goal on Sunday. We also saw three points added to the total. The total move is the most interesting move by my measure. Only two Colorado games have gone over the total this season, and the Buffaloes are quietly tied for ninth in opponent second half points per game (4.3). 

South Florida Bulls at Tulane Green Wave

Open: TUL (-7.5, 60.5) | Current: TUL (-6.5, 63.5)

South Florida was the apple of many a bettors’ eye on Saturday, but the Bulls were shutout in the second half of a 50-15 loss to Miami. Still, the market was not deterred and jumped on a key number Saturday to drive this line down to under a touchdown. The market move against the Green Wave is notable, because this is the second consecutive week those who shape the market have faded this team. This past Saturday, Tulane closed as 1.5-point favorites against Louisiana after opening as 5-point favorites. The Green Wave won and covered to improve to 3-1 ATS on the season.

Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes

Open: UTAH (-13.5, 46.5) | Current: UTAH (-12, 50.5)

Despite multiple reports of Cam Rising being healthy and available he did not start in Stillwater on Saturday. The nonsense with Rising’s status is par for the course with this program, and bettors will have to be on their toes once again this week. Isaac Wilson did start for the Utes and did an admirable job, but the result could have been an easier win than it was. At one point, Utah had four of five drives end inside the Oklahoma State 30-yard line and it came away with three total points. Arizona is coming off a bye week, but it enters this week 78th in opponent EPA per rush and 76th in opponent EPA per dropback. That could be why we saw this total jump up four points.

Fresno State Bulldogs at UNLV Rebels

Open: UNLV (-3, 54.5) | Current: UNLV (-3, 51.5)

The notable move in this game is the total. Circa Sports opened it at 54.5 but the market bet it down three points quickly. UNLV is 2-1 to the under this season, but what really matters is the improvement of its defense. The Rebels invested in the back end of this unit and it has paid off. UNLV is 11th in defensive success rate and 25th in opponent EPA per play. That has gone a long way toward these numbers coming in lower than market expectation. The Rebels had a week off to prepare as well, giving one of the best defenses in the country extra time to get ready for Fresno State’s offense.

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies

Open: NM (-3, 58.5) | Current: NM (-9, 58.5)

This is an absolute stunner of a line move. DraftKings was first to market on the side. It opened New Mexico as a three-point favorite. However, this line is up to -9 consensus as of Monday morning. You’re hearing from the VSiN author who loves this New Mexico team the most, and this feels insane to me. Fresno State is a common opponent, and if you go by the result the line does make some sense. New Mexico State was blown out 48-0 while New Mexico was somewhat competitive in a 38-21 loss on Saturday. Having said that, the Lobos are still 131st in the country in defensive success rate. Can bettors trust that unit to do enough to win by this margin?

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