Army vs. East Carolina
A spectacular Week 5 college football slate starts with a standalone Thursday night football game featuring Army vs. East Carolina. On the surface, it may feel like an underwhelming start to a week that includes Oregon vs. Penn State, Alabama vs. Georgia, and LSU vs. Ole Miss, but it is quite an interesting game stylistically.
Not only that, but Army won 45-28 last season in a game that was 38-7 going into the fourth quarter and now we see the Pirates not only favored, but growing as a favorite throughout the week. So, don’t judge a book by its cover and let’s look at the Week 5 lid lifter.
How to Watch Army vs. East Carolina
Where: ESPN
When: Thursday, September 25, 7:30 p.m. ET
Rice vs. Charlotte College Football Odds
Army +5 (-110) // East Carolina -5 (-110)
Total: 52 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 23, 9 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Army vs. East Carolina Game Preview
Army
The Black Knights had two very important pieces in last season’s game that they no longer have. QB Bryson Daily racked up 318 all-purpose yards in last season’s triumph, including 171 yards and five touchdowns on the ground over 31 carries. He was also 7-of-10 passing for 147 yards and a touchdown. The other is Kanye Udoh, who had 19 carries for 102 yards.
Army was also a perfect 6-0 going into that game and 5-0 in American Conference play. This season, they’ve already dropped a conference clash, falling 45-38 in overtime last week against North Texas. But, and there’s always a but in a service academy game, they might have found something. DeWayne Coleman got an extended look in that game and was 6-of-11 passing for 101 yards and two touchdowns and also had 23 carries for 117 yards. It was Cale Hellums who got the start, but he fumbled twice and threw an interception over the first four possessions.
Coleman immediately led a TD drive and two more right after that, so he certainly made an impact. He, too, has thrown a couple of picks this season, and those were a key factor in Army’s loss to Tarleton State when he got the start. So, we’ll see if last week was a resurgence for the senior signal caller or more of an out-of-body experience.
Opponents have scored on all 14 red zone trips against the Black Knights defense, including eight touchdowns. Nate Woody’s unit has allowed nearly six yards per play in the two FBS games, including over 4.8 yards per carry. Could this be an opportunity for East Carolina to get the ground game going?
East Carolina
That would be a godsend for the Pirates because they are pretty one-dimensional on offense right now. Through four games, the Pirates have thrown for 1,324 yards on 168 pass attempts and run for just 525 yards on 150 carries. OC John David Baker is trying to keep some balance with the play-calling, but 3.5 yards per carry is not going to cut it. That said, seven different Pirates have a rushing TD so far.
QB Katin Houser had two egregious interceptions against BYU last week, with one backed up to his own goal line and another at the other goal line to take points off the board. Prior to last week’s game, Houser had only thrown one other pick against five TD tosses. He’s completed 68.4% of his passes, but was under 60% against BYU and was forced into a season-high 12 carries due to the pressure the Cougars had. Army only has two sacks in three games.
Daily and Udoh were two standouts for Army and they obviously did plenty of damage in last year’s game, accounting for 420 of the team’s 442 yards. Will Blake Harrell and Josh Aldridge have a better plan this time around to defend the triple-option? Considering that the Pirates lost 34-20 to a Navy team without Blake Horvath in last year’s regular season finale, I’m very skeptical. Two of ECU’s three conference losses were to triple-option teams. The other was to Charlotte in one of last season’s biggest outliers.
Interestingly, Mike Houston was fired after the Army loss, and that’s when Harrell took over. His only loss in six games was to Navy, as the Pirates also upset NC State in the Military Bowl. Harrell was the DC and LB coach at Kennesaw State for one season back in 2019 and he saw the Owls’ option regularly in practice, but hasn’t beaten it with the ECU program since 2021, his second-year as the DC.
Army vs. East Carolina Prediction
As of Tuesday morning, the Pirates had pushed all the way out to as high as -5.5 in the market. Even if this year’s Army team is down a good amount, ECU’s history, and Harrell’s as HC and DC, doesn’t leave me much comfort in covering this number. Of the common bets here, I like Over 52. East Carolina’s 25 red zone attempts are tied for fourth in the nation. Army has turned it over six times already this season. The Pirates haven’t had much success stopping option offenses. Not my favorite play of Week 5, but something to whet the appetite on Thursday night.
Army vs. East Carolina Pick: Over 52
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 5 games on our Pro Picks Page.
