Florida State vs. Virginia
Friday college football action in Week 4 is what got Mike Gundy fired at Oklahoma State. Will we have any surprises or big news come out of the Week 5 Friday games? All three games have varying levels of interest and intrigue, but I’ll highlight Florida State vs. Virginia as the big one and then also mention TCU vs. Arizona State and Houston vs. Oregon State under the “Other” category, but those are hardly throwaway games and I’ll go a little deeper on them than I would others.
Getting some Power Four conference clashes on a Friday night is always fun and we get two of them here, as the ACC and Big 12 are represented in Week 5.
Florida State vs. Virginia College Football Odds
Florida State -7 (-105) // Virginia +7 (-115)
Total: 60.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 24, 11:45 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Florida State vs. Virginia Game Preview
7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The first of two Top 25 teams to take the field in hostile territory on Friday night is Florida State, as the Seminoles play their first ACC game with a top-10 ranking since losing to Boston College in Week 2 last season. Voters were willing to overlook the loss in Dublin to Georgia Tech, but the loss to BC dropped the Seminoles out of the Top 25 altogether and they never returned, losing seven of eight in ACC play and 10 of 12 overall.
Since the monumental win over Alabama in Week 1, Florida State has played controlled scrimmages against East Texas A&M and Kent State, winning by a combined score of 143-13. Factor in a Week 3 bye and this is Florida State’s first real opponent in nearly a month.
The Cavaliers are 3-0 in Charlottesville with wins over Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, and Stanford. Scoring points has not been an issue at all for Virginia thus far, as they’ve averaged 45.5 points per game and transfer QB Chandler Morris has led a unit that ranks in the top 20 in average passing yards per game. NC Central transfer J’Mari Taylor has six rushing scores to lead a ground game averaging just shy of six yards per carry. Northern Illinois transfer Harrison Waylee has a 97-yard TD run and over eight yards per carry.
Even though these two teams are ACC members, they haven’t crossed paths since 2019, the season before Mike Norvell took control of the FSU program. Fourth-year head coach Tony Elliott was in his final season sharing the OC title at Clemson, as he had the “co-” stripped off in 2020 and eventually took the UVA gig in 2022.
Virginia did lose to NC State on the road in a 35-31 barnburner where they missed a field goal, turned it over on downs inside the 10, and then threw a pick in the end zone. So, we could absolutely be talking about 4-0 Virginia if they had executed better late in that game down in Raleigh. Alas, this is a big step up in class, as NC State is a fine team, but not on Florida State’s level, at least not if we believe what we’ve seen from the Seminoles is true.
With first-year OC Gus Malzahn, Florida State is second overall in the nation in yards per play and first in yards per game. Of course, we also have to draw lines through the two FCS games they’ve played – yes, Kent State is basically a FCS program. But when you dig deeper, Florida State did still have over six yards per play against Alabama and only allowed 4.74 YPP to the Tide, who have been rolling since.
This game may be a terrific live betting event, given that we haven’t seen Florida State against a team with talent in 27 days. But, I do think Florida State is the starting position to take here at -7. Virginia is unlikely to keep finding all of the explosives that they’ve had against a defense like Florida State’s. The Cavaliers are tied for seventh in plays of 10+ yards with 73 and tied for 21st in plays of 30+ yards with 11. Of course, Florida State in one fewer game has 61 and 16, respectively.
This high total has been bet up from the open, so if you like the Under, wait it out. If you like the Over, probably the sooner the better.
Pick: Florida State -7
Other Friday Games
TCU at Arizona State (-3, 54.5): It is a dastardly deed to put this game under “Other”, but we have so much football season content rolling in that it’s hard to keep up with. By the way, you can find it all in our Week 5 College Football Hub.
Anyway, TCU beat rival SMU and Arizona State stunned Baylor as a small road underdog last week, so both teams have the vibes going. TCU has scored at least 35 points in all three games and QB Josh Hoover already has 11 TD tosses with exactly 1,000 passing yards. Arizona State signal caller Sam Leavitt has a 6/3 TD/INT ratio and 748 yards in four games, but the Sun Devils have played the more challenging schedule with road trips to Starkville and Waco.
But, you can see a potential issue coming for the Sun Devils. Leavitt already has 42 rushing attempts to his name. While Raleek Brown has been very good and Army transfer Kanye Udoh is still trying to find his footing, that’s a lot of punishment for Leavitt to take. He had 110 carries last season as ASU’s second-leading rusher over 14 games. He’s on track for nearly 130 in the regular season alone.
Kenny Dillingham is still trying to find the footing for this offense with the loss of Cam Skattebo to the NFL and a lot more attention paid to WR Jordyn Tyson, who had 14.7 yards per catch last season and has 11.5 this season. No WR2 has emerged yet for the Sun Devils.
TCU’s pass defense has had some issues thus far, as they come in ranked 119th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The total has inched down on this game and I do like Over 54.5 the most out of any traditional bet here. A slight lean towards TCU +3 as well, but wait and see if you can maybe catch a 3.5 or a reduced juice 3 because giving it harder consideration.
Houston (-13.5, 47) at Oregon State: Willie Fritz is a damn good football coach and probably one who doesn’t get enough attention. His Cougars haven’t played a murderer’s row or anything, but they’re 3-0 with a +69 point differential. That’s a nice start, if I say so myself.
Fritz has upgraded at the QB position with former Texas A&M starter Conner Weigman. He can make throws and he’s mobile enough to help steward the run-first approach of Fritz’s offensive schemes. The Beavers have allowed nearly five yards per carry and have been blown out in three of their four games. It’s a tough start for Tyler Bray and his team, as their lack of a conference affiliation meant that they had to schedule anybody who would play them.
Houston is a pretty big step down from facing Texas Tech and Oregon the last two weeks, but a better team than Fresno State, who beat Oregon State by nine, and maybe a better team than Cal, who beat the Beavs by 19 to start the season. If Maalik Murphy took better care of the football, I’d like Under 47, as the Beavers create virtually no explosive plays. But, Houston probably cashes in on short fields if that ends up being the case. Still, it’s my favorite thought of the traditional wagers.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 5 games on our Pro Picks Page.
