North Texas vs. Tulsa
The glory that is Tuesday Night Football begins next week, but we’ll get a taste of it here with Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State on Thursday night. Conference USA will draw the Tuesday and Wednesday games beginning next week and the conference has a Thursday nighter this week to prepare. I’ll get back to that game in a second, but North Texas vs. Tulsa is easily the more compelling of the two games on October 1 to kick off Week 5 of the season.
Speculation has reigned supreme in the market this week, as Tulsa head coach Tre Lamb said in Monday’s media availability that QB Baylor Hayes, who did not play last week against Arkansas, is a “true game-time decision” and lamented how it’s a short week. North Texas moved from +2.5 to +1.5 and even down to +1 at some places as Lamb’s comments made the rounds.
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 29, 7:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 5 College Football Picks and Predictions.
North Texas vs. Tulsa (-1, 57.5) Prediction
Thursday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: North Texas +1
With head coach Eric Morris and most of the roster up a state in Stillwater, it feels like not much has changed from a scoring standpoint for North Texas. They were held to 16 points by Indiana in the opener, but have scored 44, 35, and 63 in three games since. Unfortunately, they gave up 49 points to Texas State in Week 3 and sit 2-2 on the season with conference play set to get underway.
As the point totals imply, this is still a potent offense, led by one-time Indiana recruit Tayven Jackson, who has completed better than 74% of his passes with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. He’s only been sacked twice and the offensive line has done a good job in pass protection, but also in terms of opening holes for Jahiem White, who transferred in from West Virginia to rejoin head coach Neal Brown. White has ripped off seven yards per carry thus far, but the 5-foot-7 spark plug, much like his team, has been inconsistent. He had 4.4 yards per carry against Indiana and then 10.3 YPC against UNLV before only racking up 45 yards on 15 carries in the loss to the Bobcats.
White has scored a touchdown in all four games and had four of them last week against Houston Baptist in a controlled scrimmage for the Mean Green. That could be an advantage for them this week, given that the Golden Hurricane played Arkansas. Tulsa fell to 3-1 in Fayetteville, dropping a lopsided 34-6 decision with longtime college QB Dexter Williams behind center. He was just 20-of-32 for 176 yards with zero TD or INT and only had eight yards on six carries.
Lamb would never say that last week’s game was a punt, and his top defensive players all featured prominently in the matchup, but you do wonder how much scouting and film room time went into the Razorbacks. With a win over Oklahoma State already in the bag, performing well in conference play in hopes of being the Group of Six College Football Playoff representative is the goal for Lamb and his staff.
We’ll see if Hayes can return. So far, he’s completed 62.3% of his tosses with a 1/1 TD/INT ratio, while Williams has completed 57.6% of his throws with a 3/0 TD/INT ratio. Hayes emerged over Kirk Francis in Lamb’s first season last year as a freshman starter with a 12/6 TD/INT ratio after coming over from East Tennessee State alongside his head coach. Lamb, who played QB at Tennessee Tech, gave Hayes the keys to the offense right away, though Francis did play while Hayes battled injury in early October.
We didn’t see it last week against the Razorbacks, but Tulsa has run the rock effectively this season with 5.2 yards per carry. Leading rusher Damari Alston has 4.7 YPC on 45 tries, while Trequan Jones has a 6.8 YPC average thanks to an 81-yard TD run against Sam Houston State.
In three FBS games, Tulsa has 5.24 yards per play, while North Texas has 6.47 in their three FBS contests, racking up nearly 10 yards per play last week against HBU. The Mean Green definitely have the better offense, especially with Hayes’ status up in the air. But, Tulsa’s defense has been more stout, holding FBS opponents to 5.11 YPP. The Mean Green have allowed over 6.7 YPP to FBS foes.
North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction
To add another wrinkle to this game, the forecast for Tulsa on Thursday has a lot of rain from Wednesday night all the way through this game and on into the overnight hours. This is a FieldTurf surface, so it won’t be a mud puddle, but a wet ball has the chance to impact both offenses and there is the possibility of a lightning delay that could interrupt the flow for everybody.
But, I’ll trust the more explosive offense here. Tulsa’s racked up 13 sacks in four games, but Brown’s offense is getting the ball out very quick, as the Mean Green have only taken three sacks thus far. Even with the wet weather, I expect North Texas to get their points and I don’t think Tulsa, with or without Hayes, has the offense to keep up.
Pick: North Texas +1
Other Thursday Game
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State (-2.5, 57): How bad has Western Kentucky looked? Well, this line is a pretty good indicator. The Aggies have been favored just twice against FBS opponents over the last two seasons, laying 3.5 at home against Middle Tennessee last season in a 31-24 loss and then laying 3.5 against UTEP in 2024 in a 42-35 loss. This is the first time that New Mexico State has been favored over Western Kentucky since the two locked horns in C-USA back in 2023. The lines for those games have been 4.5, 18, and 7.5 with two wins for the Hilltoppers.
New Mexico State’s lone win came over FCS Mercyhurst and they’ve lost by 17, 10, and 24 in three FBS tilts, including the 42-18 loss last week in the Rio Grande Rivalry against New Mexico. WKU also owns a beatdown of Mercyhurst to go with three FBS losses, but they did play Georgia and Indiana in two of those games. Still, the stink of the 49-14 loss at Nevada to open the season is still all over this team.
No play from me here, but something to watch for the Aggies is that QB Trey Hedden was benched last week after two interceptions and a sack/fumble. Adam Damante took over and was 16-of-19 for 157 yards in garbage time. Head coach Tony Sanchez was non-committal on Monday about who would start.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 5 games on our Pro Picks Page.
