NFL Survivor
Your Survivor contest may have had a slightly different outcome thus far, but probably not that far off of what we’ve seen in Circa Survivor. In each of the first three weeks of the season, the team with the second-most selections has lost outright. We often overuse the word “carnage” in this contest, but we’re not even at the quarter pole of the NFL season and just 6,292 of the record 25,017 entries are still standing. In the Circa Grandissimo, which cost $100k per entry, we are down to 24 of the 77 that signed up.
It has been tough sledding to say the least and that changes the strategy a little bit. Even though the Chiefs are one of six teams to play on Thanksgiving and one of 10 teams eligible to be taken that “week”, over 51% of the Circa Survivor field took them against the Dolphins. Similarly, nearly 9% of the field used the Lions, another Thanksgiving team. Nearly 13% of the field took the Seahawks, who are one of six teams to play on Christmas and one of eight teams eligible that “week”.
Because so many teams have failed to be trustworthy, we’re seeing a little bit of caution getting thrown to the wind here. My strategy is typically to wait as long as possible to use holiday teams because you want as many options as possible, but making it to Week 12 and especially to Week 16 feels like a bridge to cross when you get there with the way that this season has gone. I still believe contestants with that rules format should be extremely aware of the holiday weeks, even though there have been some devastating upsets. But, I can understand the win now and worry about the rest later mindset.
This week, we have a couple of big favorites with zero holiday worries and they’ll make up a large swath of the selections.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Seahawks (-7) over Chargers
Hindsight is always 20/20 and I had the Bucs in Week 2 in this article, so who am I to say, but Seattle felt risky last week. Traveling across the country with a QB who didn’t play in the preseason and got hurt in Week 1 had some upset potential and it did come to fruition. The Commanders got a much stronger performance from the offense sans Jayden Daniels than we all thought. This seems like a better week to fire on Seattle if you still have them. They are one of the six Christmas Day teams, but the Chargers are a disaster right now.
It’s hard to find considerations this week because of the two obvious choices, but the Seahawks are 73% per PoolGenius, one of their higher win probabilities left outside of the home game against Arizona in Week 9.
Ravens (-11.5) over Titans
Robert Saleh continues to show that he knows how to run a defense, but he has no clue when it comes to offense. The Titans have allowed fewer than five yards per play, but have also gained fewer than five yards per play. They are tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns allowed, but also tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns on offense. Opponents have scored on over 43% of their possessions, while the Titans have scored on just 25.9% of theirs.
The Ravens, meanwhile, haven’t been able to keep teams from scoring, but have scored a ton themselves. Baltimore’s +1.6 in yards per play differential, so I think most of their defensive numbers will improve as things go along. They have allowed 2.41 points per drive and have allowed points on 46.9% of opponents’ possessions, but have scored 2.79 PPD and have scored on 48.5% of their chances with the ball.
To be fair, the Ravens have faced the Colts, Saints, and Cowboys, who are all solid offensive teams. The Titans are the opposite of a solid offensive team.
PoolGenius lists the Ravens at 84%, their highest mark of the rest of the season, and the highest mark this week. However, they are also 70+% five other times. So, it’s really a toss-up if you want to use the Vikings or Ravens this week.
NFL Week 4 Survivor Pick
Vikings (-11.5) over Dolphins
The 2026 Dolphins look to be on track to pull an inverse 1972 Dolphins by going winless. Jeff Hafley’s crew might stumble into a dub at some point, but it sure as hell doesn’t look like it right now. They’ve lost by 14, 22, and 14, so they haven’t even really been competitive. Now their best offensive player is out for the season, as De’Von Achane suffered a torn ACL.
Both of this week’s big favorites are pretty self-explanatory and it’s a matter of deciding which one you want to use now. The Vikings have only managed a paltry 4.3 yards per play on the season, so while they are 3-0, the offense has been pretty underwhelming at best, gaining 239, 246, and 230 yards over the three games. But, they’ve forced two turnovers per game and lead the league in third-down defense and red-zone defense. Those are two good ways to overcome some offensive shortcomings.
According to rbsdm.com EPA/Play data, the Vikings have the best defense in the NFL, while the Dolphins are 30th. While the teams are very close together in offensive EPA/Play, the Vikings blitz the hell out of the quarterback and the Dolphins don’t, so we could see a mismatch there as well.
PoolGenius lists the Vikings at 81%, their highest mark of the rest of the season by far.
Something to mention here on a light week is that Circa has partnered with Survivor Sweat, which is a marketplace for selling some or all of one’s Survivor entry(ies). Those listing their entries can decide on a price point, the percentage of the entry to make available, and whether or not the buyer gets input on the weekly picks. The buyer can see which teams are left for that entry so they know what they’re buying.
Because Survivor is a winner-take-all sort of deal, some people are looking to maximize the point in the season that they’ve gotten to by locking up some guaranteed money. This is pretty early in the season to be shaving off pieces and parts of an entry to an investor, but this is also a unique season in that we’ve had some massive upsets that have really cut down the field. As Circa Sports tweeted following Monday Night Football, the implied value per entry now is $3,976. That’s what the initial $1,000 investment is worth based on the number of live entries and the size of the prize pool. There is some equity now for everybody who still has a live entry or live entries, and some are looking to secure some coin for their time.
That said, people who still have live Survivor entries could also be scoping out the marketplace in hopes of strengthening their position. Say an entry already used the Lions while another entry didn’t. Somebody still alive in Survivor may opt to buy into that entry because having Detroit available for Thanksgiving could be extremely important. The marketplace is fairly light because it’s still early in the season, but as entries are eliminated, as teams get used up, and as the value of a live entry increases, we’re likely to see a lot more percentages of entries listed for sale at Survivor Sweat.
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs
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