College Football Week 6 Best Bets and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Had another decent Saturday again last week, although I missed a couple of games badly, note Buffalo and Tulsa, and got a bad number with Arkansas versus Texas A&M that resulted in a push. Hopefully, some of you have heeded my earlier advice in that any time I pick an underdog against the spread, I would also consider a money line wager as well, as four that I picked last week also won their games outright, including Colorado, who was a 14-point dog. This week’s board has some decent games but nothing overly hype-able like last week. That said, it shouldn’t matter to bettors what games are coming. Value is value. I take a 43-35-2 ATS (55.1%) record into this week’s college football Week 6 best bets:

 

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Sam Houston State at UTEP

Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

Sam Houston State had a comeback for the ages last week in upsetting Texas State at home, coming from 22-0 down at one point to score a 40-39 win. It was one of the biggest wins in school history, certainly at the FBS level. Now, the Bearkats get to strut their stuff in front of a national TV audience on Thursday night, and I expect them to do so. They are getting the support of the betting public at DraftKings, as over 70% of the money and bets have gone that way as of Wednesday. That is good in this case. When the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! 

The opponent is a UTEP team that is struggling at 0-4 and just 6-18 (25%) ATS at Home since 2020. After losing 37-34 in head-to-head play last year, SHSU also will be backed by two revenge systems in this one 1) Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 48-34 ATS (58.5%) since 2016. 2) College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 93-15 SU and 72-31-5 ATS (69.9%) since 2016.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I look for Sam Houston State (-10.5) to lay the hammer on Thursday

Syracuse at UNLV

Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

All the discourse last week regarding UNLV QB Matthew Sluka and his departure from the program turned out to be a big nothing-burger when it came to the game last week versus Fresno State. The Runnin’ Rebels took care of business in a big way, and everything looks hunky dory now, right? Well, I have some concerns about this Friday night tilt with Syracuse, perhaps none more than a G5 team that is getting a lot of love now being favored over a P4 team that is experienced and somewhat underrated. 

Transfer QB Kyle McCord has been a stud in the early going for the Orange, who are averaging a whopping 372.5 YPG through the air. Making matters worse for the hosts here, UNLV allows 11.3 yards per completion. It is easy to see head coach Fran Brown’s team getting a lot of big plays through the air and scoring plenty of points. That is a trait I look for in live underdogs. That big win last week for head coach Barry Odom’s team also puts them in a difficult spot here: Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 131-178-1 ATS (42.4%) over the last decade-plus.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I give Syracuse (+6.5) a great chance to compete and threaten the upset

UCF at Florida

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SEC)

Do you recall the bowl game back in 2021 in which several Florida players elected to opt out against UCF, while the Knights were looking at the game as a huge proving ground? Well, UCF won that game 29-17, despite the Gators being 7-point favorites. The programs were in different positions then, and head coach Gus Malzahn’s team had a huge motivational edge. I think the situations are reversed now. With UCF coming off the huge home blowout loss at the hands of Colorado, this spot looks way more difficult for them now. 

Take a look at the system I tagged as “Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams.” It says that both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 131-178-1 ATS (42.4%) over the last decade-plus. The Gators also have to be taking offense to the fact that they are a home dog to a team that was once characterized as a couple of levels down from them. There are obvious questions about head coach Billy Napier’s team, but they do come off their best effort of the season, and the Knights come off their worst. My power ratings say the wrong team is favored here.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Florida +2.5 as the home dog

Clemson at Florida State

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

No starting QB or not for Florida State, I was going with Clemson either way, as these teams are heading in opposite directions. The motivation for whipping the Seminoles when down has to be very high for head coach Dabo Swinney’s team. Now down QB DJ Uiagalelei with a thumb injury, it is very tough to see FSU top its season average of 15.2 PPG. If you use my math models of offense/defense versus opponent allowances this season, I have the Seminoles projected to score 14.9 points here, and if you take away 2-3 for DJ being out, we’re looking at less than 14. 

Meanwhile, head coach Mike Norvell’s team allowed 42 to SMU last week, and Clemson has been on a roll offensively, scoring 165 in three games since the opener. If you look at the history of this series lately, favorites are on 6-0 SU and ATS streak in Clemson-FSU rivalry. Plus, Clemson is 19-9 (67.9%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020. If all that weren’t enough, consider that Clemson is still seething from last year’s 31-24 loss to FSU in which they won the yardage battle 429-311, and double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 48-34 ATS (58.5%) since 2016.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 14.5 points with Clemson here

Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Only the utmost fans of both Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina remember the last time these teams squared off in Myrtle Beach in 2022. It wound up being a highly improbable upset win for the Monarchs, as they were 11-1/2 point dogs and lit up previously 6-0 CCU’s defense for 49 points and 525 yards in a 4-TD victory. It was just one of the last 8 games that ODU has covered as a conference underdog, however, so while an outright surprise, it certainly doesn’t look like it was an ATS shocker. Well, the Monarchs get another chance to shock the Chanticleers on Saturday, although this one wouldn’t be nearly as big of a surprise. CCU is only a 5-point favorite and shrinking fast despite a 3-1 record compared to 1-3 for ODU. My number says it should be four, as the ODU record has come against a formidable schedule so far. Remember, this team almost beat South Carolina in the opener. Head coach Ricky Rahne’s team is proving very capable in running the football, and stopping the run has been tough for CCU so far.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with Old Dominion +5 as the live dog

Wake Forest at NC State

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (CW)

Hard to believe that NC State is 0-5 ATS to date, as it doesn’t seem that head coach Dave Doeren’s team has played that badly. In fact, the two outright losses have come against teams that have played very well this season, or at least lately, in Clemson and Tennessee. Is try #6 finally going to be the charm for the Wolfpack to reward its backers? I’m going to say yes, as this is the first time in a while that they will face a team that is badly underachieving. 

This is turning into a lost season for Wake Forest, who has lost two of its last three games outright while favored. They have allowed 112 points in that span. This has also been a series that has been home-dominant: Home teams are on a 14-3 ATS run in the Wake Forest-NC State series. Furthermore, on that point, in the last eight times the Demon Deacons have traveled to Raleigh, they are 1-7 ATS while allowing 38.4 PPG. NC State is scoring pretty well so far in 2024, putting up 6.8 PPG more than its opponents typically allow. If that happens here, it would mean 38.1 points in this one. I don’t think that’s unreasonable, considering what has happened lately, and it gives them a great shot to win and cover.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go NC State -5 to cover its first game of 2024

Duke at Georgia Tech

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ACC)

Just looking at the won-lost records of the teams heading into this key ACC clash, you have to be perplexed by the point spread associated with it, as 5-0 Duke is listed as a 9.5-point underdog to a 3-2 Georgia Tech team. What gives? I figured I owed myself to dig a little deeper and see if I was missing something. Quite frankly, I’m not seeing anything. The momentum is on Duke’s side, as the Blue Devils come off a fantastic come-from-behind win over rival North Carolina. Yes, it could be a letdown spot from that, but I’d be way more worried if they were favored. 

This line is quite the motivator for new head coach Manny Diaz to use on his team. The favorite in this case has cooled significantly from its impressive 2-0 start, which has since lost a lot of its luster with Florida State’s downturn. In terms of series recent history, the last two games were decided by 4 and 3 points, and underdogs are on a run of 6-3 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in the Duke-Georgia Tech series. How about the Yellow Jackets? Are they a team that takes care of business when expected to? Nope, Georgia Tech is 7-19 ATS (27%) as a favorite since 2018.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Gotta go with Duke +9.5 here

Indiana at Northwestern

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

Northwestern seems to be up to its old tricks, playing woefully boring games and opting to do so as it is believed that is the only way it can compete. Or are they? While the Wildcats are scoring 17.3 PPG and allowing just 15.8 to date, my effective stats show those numbers to be 25.1-18.5 based on who they have played. That’s 43.6 PPG combined, and this total is only 41.5. None of this touches on Indiana’s prolific offensive start either, as the Hoosiers are scoring nearly 50 PPG so far (45.5 from an effective standpoint). 

Going a little further and using my effective yards per play stats, the numbers indicate that these teams should be scoring a combined 49.9 points here. That gives us a lot of cushion, and I think most bettors are seeing that, as DK betting splits show 85%+ on both handle and bets going Over. That is a great thing, as since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of <=45, 75%+, the super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%).

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Until Indiana shows signs of cooling off offensively, OVER 41.5 is the way to go

Miami (FL) at California

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Were you as perplexed as me to hear that ESPN College GameDay elected to travel to Berkeley this weekend as their feature spot for the games on this week’s board? Did they just intentionally make this game a bigger deal than it probably should have been. Is there a legitimate reason for concern after watching Miami struggle last week against Virginia Tech? If the answers to those questions in your mind are yes, yes, and yes, then Cal has to be your underdog play in this game. It should comfort you that California is 25-14 (64.1%) ATS as an underdog since 2018. 

You also should know that the Golden Bears have been outstanding defensively in the early going, yielding 14 points or less in all four games while averaging 12.8 allowed. The big thing is going to be whether or not they can keep up offensively. This is a very public betting game so far, though, with 84% of bets on the road favoring Hurricanes. I don’t think they are taking into account the motivation that has been handed to Cal to make this first-ever ACC home contest a big game or the unique travel challenge Miami is enduring for a first road conference game.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s take the +10.5 with Cal

Nevada at San Jose State

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (TRUTV)

I have written about how it is tough in the NFL to lay points when you aren’t sure the underdog team is a deserving underdog and the favorite isn’t a deserving favorite. In this case, are we sure San Jose State has earned that honor yet? Remember, this was a team that figured to be undergoing a massive rebuild in 2024 with new head coach Ken Niumatalolo at the helm and just seven starters back. The Spartans won their first three games, SU and ATS, against what now looks to be a very weak slate of opponents, with Air Force having unraveled. 

Last week’s 54-52 loss at Washington State may have earned SJSU some respect, but not so much where 85% of the bets on the ledger at DK have come in backing them. Recall that when 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). Nevada was also expected to be rebuilding this season and has done so against a far tougher schedule to date and is a respectable even in points for/allowed so far at 23.6-23.6. The Wolf Pack are also off a bye week, and teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 2014 days ago are on a 133-100 ATS (57.1%) surge since 2010. This system won with Arizona last week and should have won with Wisconsin.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Nevada +7 versus San Jose State

Temple at Connecticut

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

I may pay the price for going against head coach Jim Mora’s UConn team for a second straight week, but I have a hard time fathoming that 98% of the betting handle is on the Huskies against Temple as of Wednesday. This isn’t the two-time defending UConn basketball team of Danny Hurley. This is still a team that lost 50-7 in the opener to Maryland and has gotten its three wins against some high-level underachievers so far. 

That said, Temple has played a far tougher schedule to date, and the Owls are on a run of 7-0 ATS at Connecticut, the last three games decided by a combined score of 114-21. Mora’s team also falls into the “Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams” system: Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 131-178-1 ATS (42.4%) over the last decade-plus.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I like Temple +17 to keep it closer than the experts think

Missouri at Texas A&M

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)

There is only one ranked vs. ranked game this week, and I’ve been doing very well over the last season-and-a-half following this very simple but effective betting system: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 177-88 SU and 150-107-8 ATS (58.4%). What makes it so effective is that both teams are usually equally motivated in the ranked games, and the rabid atmospheres of college football home fields are usually the deciding factor. 

For this one, Texas A&M has the chance to regain some of the respect it lost by falling to Notre Dame in the opener. Since then, the Aggies have been so-so, but do come off an important win versus Arkansas. College Station and head coach Mike Elko are looking for a signature win to kickstart his year, and this could be it, as Missouri seems to be going through the motions right now, coming off 3 and 6-point victories in games that were supposed to be won by 18 and 14.5 respectively. The Tigers just seem to be missing a beat offensively, and with the Aggies holding teams 15.9 points below their usual averages, this will easily be the toughest defense they have faced. Elko’s offense gains an effective 6.75 yards per play offensively compared to Mizzou’s 6.07. That’s a significant edge for two teams in which the spread suggests are relatively even.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Texas A&M -2.5 to get a key win at home

Louisiana at Southern Miss

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

On the list of college football coaches that should probably be considered on the “hot seat,” you’d have to find Southern Miss head coach Will Hall, as after a 3-9 season a year ago, his team sits now at 1-3 with its only win over FCS SE Louisiana. In the three games versus FCS foes, the Golden Eagles are 0-3 SU and ATS, having been outscored by a 124-31 margin despite being underdogs of less than 15 points on average. That is nearly a double-digit point spread loss on average. Their current effective strength rating on my scale is -10.9, which would be equivalent to a power rating of about 18. To put that in perspective, only two FBS teams have current power ratings of less than 18, Kennesaw State and Kent State. This USM team has been bad and the days of annual bowl bids are long gone. 

So, we know one side of the equation. How about Lousiana? Do they have what it takes and the motivation to trust in laying points here? Well, the Ragin’ Cajuns lost 34-31 in OT to USM last year, and double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 48-34 ATS (58.5%) since 2016. As a program, Louisiana is 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) in revenge mode since 2016.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I’ll trust Louisiana to cover the 14.5-point number

South Alabama at Arkansas State

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

I picked up a best bet win going against South Alabama last week at LSU, but admittedly, it wasn’t as comfortable as I thought it would be. Even after getting out to a big first-quarter deficit, the Jaguars kept battling, and QB Gio Lopez is impressing me more and more each time I see him. He seems to fit well into head coach Major Applewhite’s offense. He has a 10-0 TD-int ratio and two rushing TDs so far, and I’m not surprised that that unit is scoring 12 PPG more than its opponents allow. If that is the case again this week, USA should be headed to the mid-40s on Saturday at Arkansas State, as the Red Wolves allow 33.8 PPG. 

ASU also comes off a brutal outing two weeks ago in which they were beaten 52-7 at Iowa State. As such, this strong system comes into play: Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 41-73 ATS (36%) since 2010. This is a very manageable line for two teams on opposite trajectories.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go South Alabama -3.5 at Arkansas State

Michigan at Washington

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

In my opinion, this Michigan team is finding its footing more and more every week. The 1-4 ATS record might not necessarily reflect that, but as I have mentioned several times already, this was a team facing a massive transition in 2024. The defending champs have managed to win four of five games despite challenging themselves a little more in the early going than we’ve gotten used to. Naturally, they are a lesser team than last year, but as they get ready for this national championship rematch game, their opponent certainly is too. 

The Wolverines are also playing their first road game of 2024, and they have been vastly undervalued in that scenario lately, going 16-5 ATS in the last 21 Road/Neutral games. They are also off a game in which they scored 27 points but gained just 241 yards, setting up a nice system for Saturday: Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 75-44 ATS (63%) in the follow-up contest. Washington, meanwhile, is off a disappointing loss at Rutgers, in which they dominated but failed to capitalize far too often. The Huskies are just 3-7 (30%) ATS in the last 10 games following a SU loss.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I like this road spot for Michigan (+2.5)

Iowa at Ohio State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Iowa has played 117 road games since September of the year 2000. It has been an underdog of 20+ points just one time in that span, getting tagged 54-10 at Ohio State in 2022. That game looks very similar to this one, doesn’t it? Wrong, in my opinion, and I will explain why, for both teams. That Ohio State team, led by QB CJ Stroud, went into the game on fire, averaging over 50 PPG at the time, and eventually wound up in the CFP. It was one of the best offenses of recent memory. This year’s team, though averaging 48.8 PPG against a much lesser schedule, isn’t as prolific both on paper and in talent level. 

Iowa averaged 17.7 PPG that season and famously struggled to get anything going against any defenses of note. This year’s Hawkeyes score 32 PPG, which equates to 40.6 on an “effective” level. You don’t get too many opportunities each season to back teams as 20-point dogs who have that much effective offense. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team also had last week off and is now back by this angle: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 133-100 ATS (57.1%) surge since 2010.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: I think Iowa (+20) will be more competitive than this line indicates

Colorado State at Oregon State

Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CW)

This game doesn’t seem to have a line attached to it that would signal a matchup of two completely different level teams going at it, but that’s exactly what I think it is. After four games, my Effective Strength Ratings for these teams are OSU +13.5, CSU -3.2. In other words, the Beavers are performing at a level 16.7 PPG better so far in 2024, and that doesn’t even take into account the home-field advantage, which is historically significant in Corvallis. 

In fact, Oregon State is 26-7 (78.8%) ATS in Home games over the last five seasons. Head coach Trent Bray’s team also had last week off, so they should be well-rested. Before that, they handled Purdue rather easily, 38-21. Oregon State is 25-12 (67.6%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2016. The Rams own two wins in 2024, albeit over a very weak UTEP team and a Northern Colorado FCS team down 5 points on its 2023 power rating. In their two games versus teams with a pulse, they were outscored 80-9.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 11 points with Oregon State

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