College Football Week 6 Late Line Movement Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

This season has been pretty interesting to me, from a line movement perspective, because I don’t feel like we’ve seen some of the massive 7-8 point line moves we’ve seen in some previous seasons. Even with Hurricane Helene brewing last week, we didn’t really see much overreaction in the betting market like I would’ve expected. So, we’ll have to be a bit more analytical in our approach to this strategy and treat it more like the NFL, where smaller moves can still be very impactful on or off of key numbers. Let’s see what late-week line moves (or lack thereof) we can detect to find value to add to our College Football Week 6 best bets.

 

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Texas Tech (+6.5; 64) at Arizona

Saturday, 11:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

I haven’t been particularly shy about the fact that Arizona has been overrated since the preseason. Coming into the season, I felt like they were living off of Jedd Fisch’s accomplishments and not what would appear on the field in 2024. That’s mostly true, although they beat Utah last week in another edition of “Will or won’t Cam Rising play?” by Kyle Whittingham. That increases my desirability to fade them this week, as people have seen that result and bet the Wildcats up from -4.5 to -6.5, now giving us a touchdown with the Red Raiders. TSI projects Arizona by just 2.5, so I’ll gladly take a touchdown with the team that can keep pace offensively in a game where there are unlikely to be many stops. Texas Tech is 27th in offensive TSI, while Arizona is just 52nd, and defensively, both teams are outside the top 60. I’ll take Texas Tech and the points in a game I think they potentially can win outright in a big letdown spot for Arizona.

College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Texas Tech +6.5 (Play to +6)

UCF at Florida (+2.5; 61.5) 

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SEC)

UCF got flat-out embarrassed in the Bounce House last week by Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes; their reward for that is now they get to try to regroup and head to The Swamp to take on a desperate Florida Gators team off a bye in a game that Billy Napier’s future may very much hinge on. An embarrassing performance against an in-state, former G5 team here could lead to some walking papers for “Sunbelt Bily,” as Tim Murray calls him. Florida was priced as a 1-point favorite in this game as recently as 9/30, but now catches 2.5 points at home. TSI projects Florida as a 2.5-point favorite here, so I’ll gladly take the 14% edge here on the home dog. These teams are extremely similar, metrics-wise, with both offenses being ranked in the top 25 of TSI and both defenses being around 40th. My brother, who’s somehow a huge Florida fan, will likely be ready to riot if the Gators lose this, so for his sake, let’s hope the Gators win and cover this 2.5.

College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Florida +2.5 (Play to pick ’em)

For more Week 6 college football analysis, visit the Week 6 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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