We are five weeks into the regular season for college football. Sample sizes are growing and the data around these teams is becoming more reliable. At this point, teams are showing bettors what they really are, and the market is responding as it should.

Teams like Kansas and Oklahoma State have been disappointing in their returns. Thus, the market has severely downgraded those programs this week.

 

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On the other side, there are over-performing teams like Indiana, Arizona State and San Jose State. Some of those teams have been upgraded by the market. Others – like San Jose State – the market is approaching with a bit more caution.

Football can be an extremely random sport, especially when it is played by college students. However, the deeper we get into the season the more the results tell us about each squad, and the market is always listening closely.

College Football Week 6 Odds Report

Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks

Open: ORE (-26.5, 52) | Current: ORE (-23.5, 52.5)

Oregon won its fourth consecutive game to start the season when it beat UCLA on Saturday, but the Ducks failed to cover for the third time this season. At 1-3 ATS it isn’t surprising to see the market turn on Oregon here and knock down the opening number three points. However, Michigan State has lost two straight and is not much better at 1-3-1 ATS for the season. Spartans have a turnover problem which has burned them early in the season. They rank 125th in the country in turnover margin (-7), but the Ducks are tied for 92nd in forced turnovers (4). Perhaps Michigan State can hold onto the ball and stay inside a big number like the market expects.

Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs

Open: UGA (-25.5, 49) | Current: UGA (-23.5, 53)

Is this a classic letdown for Georgia after losing a heartbreaker in Tuscaloosa on Saturday? It could be, but this line move toward Auburn could also be about injuries. Tate Ratledge was already sidelined prior to the loss to the Crimson Tide, and in the game center Jared Wilson suffered an injury as well. The total was the big mover here though, as it was bet up four points from the open at Circa Sports. Georgia showed some explosiveness on offense it had not previously, with five receptions of 30 or more yards.

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Cavaliers

Open: UVA (-2.5, 53.5) | Current: UVA (-4, 50)

The status of Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos will need to be monitored by bettors this week. Castellanos missed the Eagles’ win over Western Kentucky with an undisclosed injury. Transfer Grayson James started and rallied Boston College to win, but was very average in doing so. Castellanos’ injury could be why the market moved this line through the key number of three so easily on Sunday. It could also be why this total dropped 3.5 points from the opening number. 

Indiana Hoosiers at Northwestern Wildcats

Open: IU (-10.5, 45.5) | Current: IU (-14, 42.5)

Indiana continues to answer nearly every question at the window. The Hoosiers improved to 4-1 ATS with its win and cover over Maryland on Saturday. They are now ranked, and their market power rating continues to climb. Indiana is now laying two touchdowns on the road against the lowly Northwestern Wildcats. The Purple Cats are coming off a bye week, but the last time we saw them was an ugly 24-5 loss to Washington on the road. The time to play against the Hoosiers’ inflated power rating is coming, but it’s probably not against the team which ranks 100th in the country in net EPA per play.

Utah State Aggies at Boise State Broncos

Open: BSU (-25, 63.5) | Current: BSU (-26, 66.5)

Boise State improved to 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in its impressive win over Washington State on Saturday. The team is a perfect 4-0 to the over this year as well, and that is likely why we saw those who shape the market push this number up to 66.5 on Sunday. The Broncos could be jaded over fellow Mountain West member UNLV receiving a ranking in the AP Poll this week, which could lead to a solid effort against Utah State. Or, Boise State could just be that much better. Ashton Jeanty only needs 155 yards rushing this week to get to 1,000 yards on the ground. He also leads the nation in total touchdowns with 13.

Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils

Open: ASU (-1.5, 50.5) | Current: ASU (-3, 50)

Kansas fell to 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS after its loss to TCU on Saturday. Quarterback Jalon Daniels threw his eighth interception of the season in the contest, and he has yet to complete better than 60% of his passes or throw for 200 yards in an outing. His turnover-worthy play rate of 6.6% is his career-high and it puts him at 144th in the country among qualified quarterbacks. It’s no wonder why the market moved this line up to a full field goal for an Arizona State team that has already surpassed expectations at 3-1 SU and ATS on the season.

Nevada Wolfpack at San José State Spartans

Open: SJSU (-10, 47.5) | Current: SJSU (-7, 48.5)

The betting market is resisting the upgrade oddsmakers had thrust upon San Jose State when numbers opened on Sunday. The Spartans are off to a tremendous 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS start to the season. Last time we saw them, they pushed Washington State in a 54-52 overtime loss on the road as a double-digit favorite. Still, a double-digit spread against a conference foe does feel strong. The close loss to the Cougars also feels less impressive after their performance against Boise State. Whether the market moves this line even further – off the key number of seven – will be telling.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Open: OKST (-7, 62.5) | Current: OKST (-4.5, 66)

Oklahoma State’s slide continued over the weekend in a blowout loss to Kansas State on the road. The Cowboys lost their second straight contest and fell to 2-3 ATS on the season. It would seem a market that was bullish on this team at the beginning of the season has turned on Mike Gundy’s squad. Alan Bowman threw two more interceptions in the loss – his second consecutive week throwing two picks – and posted another sub-60 PFF passing grade. Perhaps the market is now too low on the Cowboys, but they have shown nothing against similarly-rated opposition that would give a bettor confidence in backing them.

Temple Owls at UConn Huskies

Open: UCONN (-11, 47.5) | Current: UCONN (-14, 51)

UConn is proving its status as a wagon almost every single week. The Huskies closed as six-point favorites against Buffalo on Saturday and dog-walked the Bulls in a 47-3 beatdown. UConn is now 4-1 ATS on the season with a +18.2 spread differential. That deserves a market upgrade, but how much is too much? Bettors coming in now are getting the short end of the stick. But, Temple is among the worst teams in the country. The Owls are 122nd in EPA margin (-0.209) and 116th in defensive success rate. 

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