Florida State vs. Louisville
Whether or not you consider Friday night to be a weeknight or part of the weekend, we can all agree that we’ve had a ton of weekday college football here in Week 6. That trend continues with five games on Friday, including ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 action. Many of the teams taking the field on October 9 have been inconsistent this season, though we can say that about pretty much every team in the nation.
BYU is the only undefeated team and Iowa is the only one-loss team, as everybody else has 2+ losses, so these can be some tough squads to pin down. I’ll look at all five games, but the highlight game of the night with my strongest betting opinion is Florida State vs. Louisville.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 7, 5:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 6 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Florida State vs. Louisville (-3.5, 59) Prediction
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Pick: Florida State +3.5
The heat has been turned down a little bit for Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell, as a blowout win over Virginia gave the program a little momentum heading into a brutal three-game stretch with Louisville, Miami, and Clemson on the horizon. On the other sideline, former Cardinals QB Jeff Brohm is probably about as safe as it gets, but back-to-back field-goal losses to Wake Forest and NC State to take the team out of the running in the ACC and completely out of the College Football Playoff picture before Columbus Day is a problem.
I was very, very critical of Florida State’s pickup of former Stanford and Auburn QB Ashton Daniels and that position has been validated to some degree, as he has six touchdown passes against six interceptions, but I think OC Tim Harris Jr. has figured some things out, including how to unlock Daniels as a runner. He had five rushing touchdowns last week out of 17 carries, including an 81-yard scamper for six. Daniels was a pretty effective runner against SMU in the 27-24 loss, picking up 71 yards on 16 attempts.
The Florida State offensive line still has issues and so does Daniels as a decision-maker, as he’s been sacked 11 times already and 10 times in the games against SMU, Alabama, and Virginia. Louisville hasn’t gotten to the quarterback much this season, though. They have eight sacks in five games and only two sacks in their games against Ole Miss and SMU.
Conversely, the Seminoles might find a fruitful pass rush again with Lincoln Kienholz battling injury. The Ohio State transfer had both ankles heavily taped in last week’s loss to NC State and he has now been sacked seven times in the last two games. The Seminoles have 17 sacks and are tied for seventh in the nation in that department and eighth in sacks per game. The Florida State front has also been very stout against the run, holding opponents to just 3.45 yards per carry and 2.7 yards per pop in two conference tilts.
Florida State vs. Louisville Prediction
Mix in a shorter week here for Kienholz and the fact that Florida State is better equipped to stop Keyjuan Brown and Isaac Brown than most teams, and I think the Seminoles are extremely live in this spot. All three of Louisville’s losses have been by a field goal, including two in games where they were comfortably favored. If nothing else, they like playing close games and that hook could be very valuable.
Pick: Florida State +3.5
Other Friday Games
Iowa at Washington (-3, 41): A short week and a long trip to Seattle couldn’t come at a worse time for the Hawkeyes, who suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of Ohio State last week. QB Hank Brown suffered an AC joint sprain in that game and we’ll see if he’s able to go here. That said, even if he isn’t, Washington hasn’t seemed terribly engaged on offense in their games, as Demond Williams, who was more than halfway out the door over the offseason, and his teammates have managed just 5.2 yards per play in their two conference games so far and 5.4 YPP in games against power-conference opponents.
The Huskies defense has limited opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry. Iowa has allowed just 2.9 YPC. The low total of 41 seems priced pretty accurately here as well.
Wyoming at San Jose State (-6, 42): Wyoming has been outscored 87-23 in three road games thus far, as their lone wins are by eight over Northern Colorado and by 17 over Hawaii in Laramie. QB Tyler Hughes has a 2/6 TD/INT ratio and, while he’s rushed for 5.7 yards per carry, Markell Holman only has a long of 18 yards thus far. There is nothing explosive about the Wyoming offense, which ranks 113th in yards per play.
It hasn’t been all that pretty for San Jose State either, as QB Luke Weaver has an 11/5 TD/INT ratio, but the ground game has managed just 3.9 yards per carry, dragged down by Weaver having to avoid sacks. He’s already taken 10 of them anyway, but is also second behind Jabari Bates in carries with 43. Bates has 104 attempts and hasn’t scored a rushing TD yet. As a team, the Spartans only have one.
As long as the Wyoming defense can hang on here, I like Under 42. San Jose State is 115th in offensive points per drive and 55th in defensive points per drive per BCFToys, while Wyoming is 114th in OPD and 101st in DPD.
Washington State at Utah State (-6, 44): This line has grown a bit this week, as the Cougars have one of the worst offenses in the nation under first-year head coach Kirby Moore. They are 134th in offensive points per drive, but have been admirable on defense. Utah State is 122nd and 62nd, respectively, so we’re looking at another game with two inefficient offenses. Both teams have played tough schedules, though, with Utah State’s strength of schedule 23rd per Jeff Sagarin and Washington State’s ranks 34th. So, we’ll see what each team does against more comparable competition.
Iowa State at BYU (-10, 46): Another total in the 40s, as Iowa State treks to Provo. Former Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers scored his first big win with the Cyclones, a 45-42 seesaw battle against West Virginia, last week, but now takes his team outside of the state for the first time. Their only road game came against in-state rival Iowa.
My power ratings point me towards BYU with the line at -13, but the Cougars managed all of 216 yards and just 62 net passing yards last week against TCU. They still won 17-10, but it was a hideous offensive performance. It may very well have been an outlier, as BYU is still 22nd in the nation with more than 6.8 yards per play, but it’s scary enough to keep me off of this one.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 6 games on our Pro Picks Page.
