The 2026 tennis season has moved into the Asian Swing, and we’ll be paying close attention to the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai. This is an interesting portion of the season, as nobody is thinking about Grand Slams. Everyone is simply jockeying for year-end positioning. The conditions are different, too. The courts and the humidity in China play differently than the North American hard courts, and that affects who can control rallies, who can hold serve, and who even has the physicality required to finish matches.
Fortunately for all of us, there’s no shortage of matches to break down as the week unfolds, and I’ll keep posting my tennis best bets daily. Because of the time difference, matches overnight in the US run across two calendar days. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Thursday, October 8 and Friday, October 9. Also, keep an eye on the new VSiN Community and the VSiN Pro Picks page for other plays. I posted my tournament futures in the Community on Tuesday.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Daniel Altmaier vs. Ben Shelton
Make sure you look at how I’m playing this one below, as I’m risking a total of 0.75 units here. This isn’t a standard play for me. However, I do think the pricing is off in this one, so I’m willing to throw a little something at it. When these two met in Hamburg in May, Altmaier actually came away with a 4-6, 7-6 (4), 6-4 victory. That was a clay-court match, so it was very different than what we’ll see in the quick conditions in Shanghai. But Altmaier will go to the court with the confidence that he can beat Shelton.
Altmaier has also been around the block. He’s not going to head into this match looking to out-hit Shelton. He knows exactly who he is, and he knows that his best chance of winning is attacking the American’s weaknesses. So, you’ll see Altmaier peppering the Shelton backhand here.
In the end, Shelton might have too much firepower for Altmaier. But these odds suggest a gap between the two that is far larger than reality.
Bet: Altmaier +1.5 Sets (+180 – 0.5 units) & Altmaier ML (+600 – 0.25 units)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Brandon Nakashima
If you have been reading my work for a while, you should know I’m a big Berrettini fan. However, the Italian’s game is nowhere near where it needs to be right now, and this feels like a very generous price for us to be getting with Nakashima.
Over the last 52 weeks, in TennisViz’s tracked matches, Nakashima has a better Serve Quality (8.5 vs. 8.4), Return Quality (6.7 vs. 5.9), Forehand Quality (7.6 vs. 7.4), and Backhand Quality (6.9 vs. 6.4) than Berrettini. On top of that, Nakashima wins more points from the baseline (50% vs. 48%), plus he’s flat out better at winning points no matter the rally length.
Given the faster conditions, I understand a hot service day from Berrettini can render all of that useless. But the advantages across the board make this a play — and a somewhat big one.
Bet: Nakashima ML (-141 – 1.5 units)
Quentin Halys vs. Alexander Blockx
I usually like to make my picks over bigger sample sizes, but I think there’s some value on Halys given the way Blockx looked in Tokyo. Sure, the young Belgian star played only one match there, and it was a tight 7-6 (2), 7-6 (4) loss to Valentin Vacherot. But at the same time, Blockx faced eight break points in that match. And overall, the 21-year-old just looked shaky on serve.
If Blockx doesn’t quickly flip the switch and start holding a bit easier, this is a match he can lose. Halys has a massive first serve, which should be very difficult for Blockx to deal with in the quicker Shanghai conditions. I was also very impressed with Halys’ play in Beijing. Even in a loss to Alex de Minaur in the second round, the Frenchman had a Performance Rating of 7.99. Halys is playing much better from the back of the court. That said, he’s not solely relying on his serve. He’ll hang around in rallies and ask a bunch of questions of Blockx.
Bet: Halys ML (+125)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
