New Mexico vs. San Jose State
We’ve got five college football games on the Week 6 Friday night schedule. None of them are attention grabbers, but four different conferences are represented with the American, Conference USA, Mountain West, and Big 12. The Big 12 game features a favorite in BYU against an injury-riddled West Virginia squad and the line certainly reflects it.
Truth be told, I’m not really sure which game to highlight, as there aren’t a ton of strong betting options. But, let’s look at the first of the two Mountain West games in depth and then hit the other four, as New Mexico vs. San Jose State snags the spotlight for Friday’s featured game, as it’s the strongest opinion that I have.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 1, 1:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
New Mexico at San Jose State (-2.5, 57.5)
10 p.m. ET (FS1)
Jason Eck has certainly breathed some life into the New Mexico program, as the Lobos are halfway to bowl eligibility already. Last year’s team went 5-7 and started 0-4, including a loss to FCS Montana State, though the Bobcats were quite a strong FCS squad. The schedule is a little bit kinder than it has been in years past, but this is the first time since 2007 that the Lobos have won three of their first four games.
San Jose State’s lone win is over FCS Idaho by three points, so it’s been a tough start to the season for the Spartans. They dropped the opener at home as a two-touchdown favorite against Central Michigan and then let a 12-point fourth-quarter lead slip away against Stanford in what would have been a huge win for the program. Walker Eget threw for 473 yards in the loss, which is great. Ben Gulbranson threw for 444 yards for Stanford, which is not great given what he’s looked like this season.
While the Spartans began practice this week licking some wounds, the Lobos were riding high after defeating New Mexico State in the annual rivalry game between the two programs. Ironically, UNM QB Jack Layne was at Idaho last season, so we’ll see if he can do what his former program couldn’t against SJSU. Layne is really playing well with a 69.3% completion rate and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio, with all three interceptions in the season opener against Michigan.
It is still really hard to wrap my head around Ken Niumatalolo having a pass-first offense. Through four games, the Spartans only have 93 rushing attempts. Jabari Bates had an 87-yard house call against Idaho, but other than that, San Jose State has 3.5 yards per carry on their other 92 attempts. Eget has thrown the ball 164 times already this season, the second-most of any QB with four games played.
The defense has allowed over seven yards per play in the games to Michigan and Stanford, and over six yards per play overall. That has forced the high volume from Eget, as the Spartans have been playing catch-up a fair amount. New Mexico’s defense allowed 7.2 yards per play to Michigan, but has allowed 5.24 yards per play in their other games.
My college football power ratings have this game lined at pick ‘em. San Jose State has played the tougher schedule so far by about 60 spots per Jeff Sagarin, but New Mexico is in a better place mentally here and has a lot more offensive balance.
Pick: New Mexico +2.5 (80/20 spread/ML split)
Other Friday Games
Western Kentucky at Delaware (-2.5 (-115), 61.5): The 7 p.m. CBS Sports Network kick between these Conference USA rivals is probably the most compelling game of the night. With Liberty’s massive fall from grace, the conference is very wide-open now and some believe that the Blue Hens might be the best team that the conference has to offer. The Hilltoppers have been one of the most consistent over the years and Maverick McIvor has an 11/2 TD/INT ratio, so it’ll be a good test for Delaware.
If we see a 3.5 show up here, I might take a shot on WKU. For now, Delaware looks to be the preferred side for bettors and I’m not eager to go against them given that this game has a known commodity vs. unknown commodity feel to it. Check out the rest of our College Football Week 6 content in the Betting Hub to see if our other writers and analysts have picks on this or the other Friday games.
West Virginia at BYU (-19, 47): Provo will be rocking on Friday night with a 10:30 p.m. ET kick. The Mountaineers’ Backyard Brawl win over Pitt feels like an eternity ago. They’ve been outscored 89-24 in their two conference games since. QB Nicco Marchiol didn’t play last week and some believe that Rich Rodriguez wants to get a look at Khalil Wilkins the rest of the way. Marchiol could redshirt and sit out the rest of the year if he wanted to.
Nevertheless, BYU, off a close call against Colorado, is a massive favorite here. Based on what we’ve seen from WVU, a cover of even this number could be a tall ask.
Colorado State at San Diego State (-6, 41): Speaking of QB changes, Colorado State made one last week, giving Jackson Brousseau the start over Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. BFN has a 53.7% completion rate with a 1/2 TD/INT ratio, so it makes sense. Brousseau was 19-of-28 for 188 yards and had 21 rushing yards, but failed to lead any TD drives, as the Rams lost a 20-3 stinker to Washington State.
San Diego State and Northern Illinois set offense back about 60 years in last week’s 6-3 win for the Aztecs. But, SDSU’s defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed, so they have performed at a very high level thus far. Offensively, though, they are 125th in the nation in yards per play. That said, Colorado State is 113th and nowhere near the top five on defense (actually 78th). It would be San Diego State or nothing for me here, but 5.5 does seem healthy given a total under 40 at open that has moved out to 41.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 6 games on our Pro Picks Page.
