Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State
Conference USA begins their Wednesday night games next week, but we get a taste of it to open up Week 6 with Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State. The Bearkats and the Aggies will battle in Las Cruces, as the lads from the Land of Enchantment did not get a whole lot of time to sulk after losing the I-25 rivalry game to New Mexico last weekend.
Instead, they are right back at it for this CBS Sports Network broadcast against the winless Bearkats, who have a major rest advantage here after getting blanked 55-0 by Texas back on September 20. On one hand, the rest is a good thing. On the other hand, Sam Houston State has played one game since September 6, as they also had a bye prior to the Texas tilt.
The winless road team is favored here, which may tell us all we need to know about the Week 6 lid lifter.
How to Watch Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State
Where: CBS Sports Network
When: Thursday, September 25, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State College Football Odds
Sam Houston State -2.5 (-110) // New Mexico State +2.5 (-110)
Total: 52 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of September 30, 11:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Game Preview
Sam Houston State
The Bearkats are 0-4, but they’ve played the 14th-ranked strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin coming into this matchup. In other words, they probably should be 0-4, but they did lose each of their first three games by 17 points before the 55-point blowout in Austin.
Admittedly, I was not high on the Bearkats coming into the season, as head coach KC Keeler opted for a homecoming of sorts at Temple, as the Philly-area native who oversaw the transition of the program from FCS to FBS went to lead the Owls. Sam Houston State brought back mid-2010s OC Phil Longo for his first head coaching gig. Square peg, round hole theory applied for me with that hire, as this was a Bearkats bunch that ran the ball 557 times against 350 pass attempts last season.
So far this season, the Bearkats have 124 rush attempts against 118 pass attempts, but that’s because QBs Hunter Watson and Mabrey Mettauer have combined for 62 rushing attempts themselves. They’ve also been sacked 15 combined times, with nine for Watson and six for Mettauer, who played a good chunk of the game against Hawaii and part of the loss to UNLV. Mettauer did not dress for the Texas game.
Obviously it is hard to determine the actual level of play for the Bearkats on both offense and defense with that tough schedule, but those are the games we have to work with. With 4.4 yards per play, SHSU is tied for 132nd in the nation in YPP on offense, but it is worth noting that NMSU is 126th in the nation with 4.8 and they’ve played the 160th-ranked schedule per Sagarin.
New Mexico State
Can the Aggies get their offense going here? Sam Houston State has allowed 6.72 yards per play and ranks tied for 127th in that department. Could that be the cure for a unit picking up well below five yards per play? It could be, but protecting Logan Fife would help. Fife has been sacked 14 times so far and leads the team in rush attempts with 40. He has amassed a whopping -2 yards on the ground. The Aggies have one rushing touchdown so far this season.
That belongs to Kadarius Calloway, who has just 2.7 yards per carry. Dijon Stanley has just 3.3. Nobody has a run longer than 17 yards. So, the Aggies are not opening up any holes in the run game or protecting the quarterback well. Fife has only completed 54.1% of his passes and the team has 1.5 yards per carry on the whole.
Fife did throw for 255 yards against New Mexico and the Aggies led 17-14 at halftime, but they scored three points the rest of the way and lost by 18 as a 14-point pup. It will be interesting to see how the rest of Year 2 goes for Tony Sanchez. He was largely hired at New Mexico State because he played there and was the wide receivers coach under Jerry Kill. He got the UNLV job because he was the head coach at powerhouse Bishop Gorman HS, but was fired after going 20-40 with the Rebels.
The athletic department budget isn’t big at New Mexico State and Sanchez doesn’t seem like a great head coach, though his team did knock off Tulsa earlier this season, and the Golden Hurricane got Mike Gundy fired at Oklahoma State.
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Prediction
Ugh. Rough one here. My power ratings say New Mexico State -2, but I also had ample value on the Aggies last week against the Lobos and they didn’t cover. Despite my best efforts to adjust the Aggies, I still have them favored here. The fast turnaround is problematic, but I think it is mitigated by Sam Houston State’s schedule that has included a lot of just practicing against each other. I’ll trust my belief coming into the season that Longo was a bad fit for this program and heavily adjust New Mexico State if I’m wrong.
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Pick: New Mexico State -2
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 6 games on our Pro Picks Page.
