Southern Miss vs. Troy
David Brandt, a Marine, Purple Heart recipient, and farmer, went viral back in 2018 when he was the subject of a news story and became internet famous for the quote, “It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.” Sadly, Mr. Brandt passed away in 2023, but his meme lives on and so do some of his farming techniques. All of that to say that these Tuesday and Wednesday night college football games won’t be pretty and won’t be much, but they will be honest work. They won’t be big displays of talent. But, they do help us get 61 straight days of CFB/NFL action and we salute them for that.
We start with Southern Miss vs. Troy out of the Sun Belt, a standalone 8 p.m. ET game on ESPN2. It was smart of the Fun Belt and Conference USA to set up these weeknight games as ways to get the programs some TV money and a little bit of exposure. For us, it’s nice to have something to sweat and follow on Tuesdays and Wednesdays on the gridiron. However, most people won’t know jack squat about these teams, so hopefully that’s where we come in and where these previews will come in handy.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 5, 6:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 5 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Southern Miss vs. Troy (-11, 49.5) Prediction
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Pick: Southern Miss +11
It has not been a fun season thus far for Southern Miss and head coach Blake Anderson, who was promoted from offensive coordinator when Charles Huff took the HC role at Memphis. The Golden Eagles opened with a 49-3 win over Alcorn State, but have since lost all three FBS matchups and gave up 48 points to UConn and 43 points to Auburn. They did have a close call last week in a 24-21 loss at Tulane, but it is hard to win allowing almost six yards per carry.
Troy is two up and two down on the season, beating Sam Houston and Alabama State to begin the season, but then losing the last two weeks to Missouri and Utah State. The 10-point loss to Mizzou certainly looks better after what the Tigers did last week to Florida. The 11-point loss at Utah State is not nearly as good of a look, but it was a strange travel spot to Logan, Utah to play at elevation. The Trojans also missed two field goals, Goose Crowder threw three interceptions, and the team had a plus-territory turnover on downs.
As we look ahead to the conference opener for both teams, it should be mentioned that Troy had 6.3 yards per play in their lone FCS game and just 4.9 YPP in their three FBS games. Similarly, Southern Miss had 6.5 YPP in that Alcorn State blowout, but just 5.1 YPP in the three FBS contests. The picture is similar on the defensive side, where Troy has allowed 5.7 YPP to FBS foes and Southern Miss has surrendered 6.4.
Interestingly, Troy was just 3-for-14 on third down against Alabama State and is 37.8% on third down against FBS opponents, but the Trojans are still 111th overall in conversion rate. Southern Miss is 114th overall at 33.3%, but the Golden Eagles are at just 31% against FBS competition. Defensively, Troy has been one of the better units on third down, holding opponents to just 32%. Southern Miss has not fared well, sitting 110th at 43.1%.
In looking at Troy and this double-digit spread, one major concern is that they’ve only gone into the red zone nine times thus far. You need scoring opportunities to cover spreads of size. Southern Miss has 13 red-zone trips and also ranks 20th in TD% in those opportunities, though they were 5-of-6 against Alcorn State.
Southern Miss vs. Troy Prediction
Troy QB Goose Crowder has only completed 52% of his passes and the Trojans have 4.4 yards per carry as a unit. Jahiem Merriweather has six yards per carry and is second on the team in attempts, but he ran for 127 yards against Alabama State to skew the numbers. Against FBS opponents, Troy has just 3.9 yards per carry.
Southern Miss has already started two different quarterbacks and has mustered just 3.3 yards per carry in FBS games. These are two inefficient offenses to say the least, so the Under 49.5 might be in play. The weather doesn’t look great. But, overall, as much as the Golden Eagles could struggle, an 11-point head start might be enough against a Troy team that has not played well at all on offense.
Pick: Southern Miss +11
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 5 games on our Pro Picks Page.
