NFL Odds Week 5
Injuries are going to pop up each and every season in a sport where every hit is the equivalent of a car crash, to use a phrase from my late buddy Brian Blessing. But, we definitely saw some injuries of significance last week that could have some impact as we look at NFL Week 5 here in the 2026 season.
On the surface, this looks like a pretty mediocre slate of games, but there are some that carry more weight than others and the ability to bet makes every game a little more interesting and a little more important. It is always fascinating to see how lookahead lines were adjusted based on how the results came in and that’s precisely what we’ll do here.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 5 NFL Odds Report:
Buccaners at Cowboys (-10, 47.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Bucs fell to 0-4 in Jalon Daniels’ first career NFL start, as Baker Mayfield will be sidelined for the next few weeks. He struggled mightily with two picks and three sacks and, while he did provide 55 yards on the ground, I don’t think we’re going to see much market confidence in him or the team moving forward. To be honest, I felt like the Bucs were going to be bad from the first time we saw them this season and nothing has changed with that. Meanwhile, the Cowboys scored a big win to drop the Texans to 0-4 and now we see mostly 10s across the board instead of 9.5s.
Eagles vs. Jaguars (-5, 42.5) (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Jaguars head to their second home in search of another win, which would move them to 4-1 on the season. The Eagles, on the other hand, blew a 10-point lead against the Rams in the fourth quarter and also lost Saquon Barkley in that game. Jalen Hurts threw for a grand total of 93 yards. Philly looks like every bit of a .500 team right now and that’s not going to cut the mustard against Jacksonville, who scored a nice road win over the Bengals, despite giving up four bills to Joe Burrow. This line opened Jags -2.5 at DraftKings, but did get pushed out to 3 and has since gone even farther now in light of Sunday’s results.
Colts at Steelers (-2, 44)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Steelers are on some extra rest and the Colts are coming back from London, so you would think that Pittsburgh has a scheduling advantage here. The circumstances of the day and time aren’t going to matter if the fans waving Terrible Towels are directing them at the offensive line, which was simply awful against Cleveland. The Colts did take advantage of Marcus Mariota’s injury and Athan Kaliakmanis’ debut to win across the pond, but that victory didn’t move the needle much, as the Steelers are still short favorites market-wide.
Browns at Jets (-2.5, 40)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
So, what are the chances that we see the Browns bet into favorites here? Frankly, I’m a bit surprised we didn’t move closer to pick ‘em after the Jets were dominated by the Bears. Chicago had the ball for nearly 43 minutes and the New York defense faced almost 90 plays. That’s a heavy workload and a major concern heading into a game against the surging Browns, who are shockingly 3-1 after a really ugly first game against Jacksonville. The Browns were -2.5 road favorites against the Jets last season and lost outright.
Bengals (-7.5, 42) at Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals had 437 yards, including 428 passing yards from Joe Burrow, and still mustered just 17 points against the Jaguars. Miami lost to a team that didn’t score a touchdown. Cincinnati has not looked like a very good team the last couple of weeks, so the Dolphins are coming up at just the right time. Cincinnati is -7.5 on the road here, the biggest road favorite role for the Bengals since laying 11.5 on Halloween 2021 against the Jets. They lost that game. Given Cincy’s knack for ruining the lives of Survivor players, is it possible that Miami wins this game?! This total got whacked down hard, as DraftKings had it as high as 46.5 in the lookahead market.
Raiders at Patriots (-3.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Raiders and Patriots both had games decided by a field goal on Sunday, but one team won and the other didn’t. The Raiders put a ton into their 30-27 loss to the Chiefs and now have to head three time zones east to Foxboro to take on a Patriots crew that beat Buffalo for a massive win and maybe one that silences the Drake Maye critics for a couple of days. This line was 3.5 throughout last week and into the weekend, though the Patriots were -115 on the vig for a while at DraftKings. That was not the case on Sunday night with a flat 3.5 instead.
Giants at Commanders (-3, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
We’ll have to see how the week progresses for Jayden Daniels, as the hope is that Washington will get him back in Week 5 and the line seems to imply that will be the case, with the Commanders favored by 3.5 or 3 depending on the book. Given that they are coming back from London without taking their bye week, you do have to wonder about the Commanders and their readiness for this one, especially with a Giants team that has some belief right now with Jameis Winston at the helm.
Texans (-6, 39.5) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
It has gotten late early for the Texans, who fell to 0-4 and are hoping to join the 1992 Chargers as the only team to start 0-4 and still make the playoffs. They should improve to 1-4 here against the Titans, but maybe it’s best not to take anything for granted with Houston right now. That said, they are -6 or -6.5 depending on the book for this trip to Nashville and the Titans, who had a silver lining in Week 4 with a big showing from Carnell Tate, look like they’re in a race to the bottom with the Dolphins. Even with the loss to Dallas, Houston did not see an adjustment from the lookahead line in this game.
Bears (-2.5, 44) at Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Bears are correctly laying a road number here against the Packers, who survived against the Bucs and Jalon Daniels. Chicago’s defense had a day of light cardio on the calendar this past Sunday, as the Jets defense couldn’t get off the field and the Bears offense had the ball for 42:45. That should certainly help Chicago’s preparation for this short trek to Green Bay. The Packers were actually a -2.5 favorite in the lookahead markets, but we’ve seen a flipped favorite scenario here. Five points is a pretty big adjustment, but seems warranted. The total was also 45.5 at DraftKings, so that was adjusted as well.
Broncos (-3.5, 42.5) at Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is definitely one of the more notable games in the context of this article, as Denver blew through the key number of 3 to be a 3.5-point favorite for this AFC West matchup. The Broncos were -2.5 on the lookahead number and, despite the loss to the 49ers, grew as a favorite. The Chargers look extremely disengaged right now and you have to wonder how long the Mike McDaniel experiment will go and how long Jim Harbaugh will be with the organization. By no means is a game against the Seahawks easy, but Justin Herbert was awful again and things just are not working right now.
49ers at Seahawks (-3, 46)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
It is no longer standard operating procedure to slap a -3 on a home team in a game between evenly-matched rivals, but that seems like the right line here, doesn’t it? Home-field advantage has gradually dwindled in the NFL, so this isn’t really a pick ‘em game on a neutral, but the Seahawks would be slim favorites if that was the case. Both teams handled their affairs accordingly in Week 4 and so this line didn’t move much from where it was last week. Some shops were holding 2.5 with heavy home juice and others 3 with some extra vig on the Niners. I don’t think this line moves much off of that.
Lions (-5.5, 54.5) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
It is a pretty short week for the Lions, who lost in Charlotte on Sunday Night Football and will have to leave a day earlier to get out west and get acclimated to the time change in Glendale. The Cardinals were no match for the Giants and many questioned Mike LaFleur’s running back usage in the postgame, so there is a baked-in negative sentiment about the first-year Arizona coach. That being said, the Lions are just 2-2, winless on the road, have major defensive issues, and look like an early-season disappointment. This line was 5.5 last week at DraftKings and hasn’t really moved.
Bills at Rams (-2.5, 53.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
For a little while, this game was Rams -1.5 last week. For an even shorter while, it was Rams -3 on Sunday night, but that number was quickly scooped up and 2.5, the prevailing number from last week, was reinstalled for this upcoming week. I do wonder if we see that 3 pop back up here, given that the Bills really haven’t looked all that buttoned up thus far and the Rams hype is still there, even with something of a pedestrian start to the season. We all agree that Josh Allen is really good, but I do think that there is a point of resistance coming where the Bills aren’t trusted by influential bettors until they get over some sort of hump.
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