College Football Week 6 Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

A weekend was had, as they say. I wrote last Monday about the comically bad luck I experienced on some of my bets, and that trickled into my first several bets in Week 5, as Washington (whom I bet on the money line) missed three field goals, blocked a kick that got overturned because a guy ran onto the field from the sidelines to celebrate before the play was over and gave up a touchdown on the very next play, and had a trip inside the Rutgers 5 yard line come up empty, and lost by 3 despite all of that. My weekend started 2-7 before my luck changed like I found a four-leaf clover in my pocket; I rattled off a 13-3 run to end Saturday, and it felt good to make everyone some actual money. Now, let’s keep that momentum rolling, as I’ve already placed some bets for college football Week 6, so let’s see what my T Shoe Index has cooking for us this week.

 

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Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. USC Trojans (-8.5; 51.5) 

Both teams had quite entertaining games this past weekend, as Minnesota took Michigan to the wire in the Big House, while USC overcame a multi-score first-half deficit to win and cover against Wisconsin. USC’s defensive turnaround this season has been remarkable; very reminiscent of the Ohio State defensive shift from 2021 to 2022. Minnesota plays defense; everybody knows that. Both teams are in the TSI top 25 defensive ratings, while Minnesota is barely in the top 75 on offense (USC is sixth). This total has already ticked down a point or so since opening, and with TSI projecting a measly 44.5 points in this game, I’m all over this under. These teams average 69th in the country in possessions per game, so we’re talking about a below-average game, tempo-wise, and Minnesota is top ten in opponent-adjusted defensive EPA. At the same time, USC is 17th in opponent-adjusted defensive points per play. 

College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Under 51.5 (Play to 51)

Iowa State Cyclones (-13.5; 46.5) vs. Baylor Bears

I think I’ve bet an Iowa State under pretty much every week this season, and with good reason. Last week, they won a snoozer, 20-0 over Houston. This week, they play a Baylor team that has lost back-to-back weeks in disappointing fashion and could be on the verge of a fired coach pretty soon. TSI only projects this total at 40.5, as Iowa State is in the top ten TSI defensive ratings, and both teams are around 50th in offensive TSI. Iowa State is seventh in opponent-adjusted defensive points per play, and neither team is in the top 30 in opponent-adjusted offensive points per play. Similarly, neither team is top 50 in opponent-adjusted EPA/play, while Iowa State is top ten in that category, defensively. This could be another Big 12 rock fight and potentially Dave Aranda’s last stand at Baylor.

College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Under 46.5 (Play to 45)

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