College Football Week 7 Best Bets and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Had another decent Saturday going again last week until the late games, when I lost my last four best bet decisions. I am finding that these mini skids are ruining what could be extremely strong results. That said, I wound up with a 9-8 ATS mark on my plays for last weekend, extending my season record to 52-43-2 ATS (54.7%). This week’s board has some fascinating matchups, but for those looking for the real big tilts, next week will be your showcase. Let’s get right into our Week 7 college football best bets.

 

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Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech

Thursday, 8:00 p.m.

As a college football bettor, I think the term revenge can be overstated at times, as a lot of people think it is an automatic motivator every time. Sometimes it’s under the radar spots, and revenge means more. One of those spots comes when a team that beat someone last year is now one of the worst in the country. 

In 2023, MTSU snuffed out a late rally by Louisiana Tech to win 31-23 in a game the Bulldogs won the yardage battle handily. This puts Louisiana Tech in two revenge spots for this game: 1) Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 209-163 ATS (56.2%) since 2016. 2) Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 639-553 ATS (53.6%). 

The Blue Raiders are off to a brutal start in 2024, 1-4, while being outscored 39-16 on average. Their Effective Strength Rating is -12, which is equivalent to a Power Rating on my scale of 16. Only two FBS teams have an actual PR worse than that. Louisiana Tech isn’t great itself, but they have a far better defense and an ESR of -1.4. In other words, the Bulldogs are effectively 10.6 points better. This line doesn’t account for it.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Louisiana Tech as the -4.5 point favorite

Northwestern at Maryland

Friday, 8:00 p.m.

Last week, I took advantage of an extremely low total in the Northwestern-Indiana contest. The so-called experts pegged the game at 41 despite Indiana’s prolific offensive performance thus far. It easily went Over. For this week, these same experts have presented us with a total of 5.5 points higher for Northwestern against a Maryland team that doesn’t have the same offensive capabilities as Indiana. In fact, the Terps are scoring 14 PPG fewer. 

I didn’t see last week’s game total as an indictment on Northwestern. I just thought oddsmakers were undervaluing IU’s offense. To me, the Wildcats are still trying to play the same way but shortening their games. I don’t think this one gets to the total of 46.5. Thankfully, as of Wednesday, 94% of the handle at DraftKings disagrees with me. It vindicates my thoughts. These teams combine to hold opponents about 15 points below their scoring averages. If that happens here, we’re looking at a mid-30s type of game.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 46.5 for Northwestern-Maryland

Utah at Arizona State

Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET

I’m looking at the opposite side of the total in this Utah-Arizona State game as it has the feel of one of those late Friday night games that could get crazy. The betting public at DK has seen 78% majority on an Over here, which makes it a good spot historically: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). 

To me, it feels like Utah is on the verge of a bust out here, especially if we finally see QB Cam Rising. The Utes hung 55 on ASU last year and are averaging 41.3 PPG in the the last three head-to-head meetings. Of course, the Sun Devils are much-improved offensively in 2024 and have put up 36 PPG in their first four home contests. If this were in Utah, I could see ASU perhaps struggling offensively. In Tempe, however, I think they push the tempo to stay competitive, and we see a higher-scoring tilt.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take OVER 45 in Utah-ASU

Memphis at South Florida

Saturday, 7:00 p.m.

So, with everything going on with the weather in Florida this week, this game got moved to Saturday. Now, it might still get played on Sunday or not even at all this week. If it does, however, I have to like the spot that USF is in, as I believe Memphis is overpriced here by about 3-4 points, and I think the whole Hurricane Milton situation is going to provide some extra motivation. My Power Ratings say this game should be a 3.5-4-point spread, not 7.5. 

The Bulls were one of the biggest surprises in the country last year, but they are off to a slow start due to a very tough schedule. Their numbers look bad because of blowout losses to Tulane, Miami, and Alabama. One of their losses last year came at the hands of Memphis, a 59-50 decision in which each team gained at least 580 yards of offense. It was one of the more electric and competitive games of the AAC season last year. For what it’s worth, South Florida is 5-25 SU and 19-11 ATS (63.3%) in revenge mode since 2016. 

The Tigers have lost back-to-back games against the spread and were pretty sloppy in a 24-7 win over MTSU two weeks ago. The key trend on that side finds Memphis on a 3-16 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win. Based on schedule strengths, my Effective Strength numbers find Memphis at 16.1 and USF at 8.9. In other words, if this was a neutral game, I’d think Memphis would be a 7-point favorite. Not on the road, however, going against a USF team that will be repping its hometown of Tampa.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go USF +7.5 as the home dog

California at Pittsburgh

Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Talk about heartbreak. Cal led for almost all of last week’s big game against Miami at home only to lose in the final minute. The Golden Bears were playing in front of an emotionally charged crowd that was fueled all day long by the ESPN GameDay hosting atmosphere. Talk about a letdown. How it affects this team moving forward over the long haul remains to be seen, but I don’t think it could possibly be a positive this week in heading to Pittsburgh to face a very undervalued Panthers team. 

In fact, there is a nice system in play saying that Cal is in a difficult spot because of the loss: Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 72-102 ATS (41.4%) since 2011. At this point, Pitt is one of 12 teams in the country averaging 7.9 or more effective yards per play, as freshman QB Eli Holstein has been far more capable than anyone could have envisioned.  I like what Cal has done, but this is a brand new atmosphere, tough travel, and about as tough of a mental challenge as you can get.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3 points with Pittsburgh

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green

Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Remember last month when Northern Illinois went to South Bend and beat Notre Dame, and then came out ranked in the Top 25 the next week? Well, apparently those days are distant memories for those setting the odds each week in college football, as NIU now finds itself as a road underdog in MAC play to a Bowling Green team whose only two wins have come over Fordham and Akron. I feel like those behind the counter have put too much stock into the Falcons since their back-to-back near misses against Penn State and Texas A&M. 

Let’s face it: those are still losses, and other than perhaps making a team feel good for a couple of days, they don’t really impact anything. To me, the Huskies were the better team heading into the season, and nothing definitive has happened since to change my mind. They are also one of the country’s best underdogs, particularly in MAC play: Northern Illinois is a 15-3 ATS MAC road underdog in its last 18 tries. NIU has also beaten BGSU in three straight head-to-head games, scoring 43.3 PPG in the process.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +3 points here with Northern Illinois

Florida at Tennessee

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET

How much is mentally lost when a team on a roll stumbles and gives up a game it wasn’t supposed to, perhaps putting a serious dent in its eventual playoff hopes? We’re about to find out with Tennessee this week as it takes on rival Florida with the pressure of a 15.5-point spread attached. The Vols seemed to be cruising in 2024 until last week at Arkansas when head coach Josh Heupel inexplicably got conservative and cost his team in a 19-14 decision. An offense that put up 191 points in the first three games has apparently been figured out, as they’ve been held to just 39 over the last two games. 

Making matters worse, Tennessee still has games with Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia down the pike. With that upcoming, it might be easy to overlook a Florida team that has been maligned all season. There are two problems with that. First, this is a massive rivalry game, and the Vols have always struggled with the Gators. In fact, Florida is on a 5-1 SU and ATS run versus Tennessee. Second, head coach Billy Napier’s team is playing well now, coming off its two best games of the season. Go back two or three weeks, and I don’t think anyone questions Tennessee being a 15.5-point favorite in this game. Now, though, I do.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Florida +15.5 versus Tennessee

Ball State at Kent State

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

There aren’t too many occasions in a college football season, or a college football lifetime if you will, where you’ll find a road favorite team giving up 48.2 PPG. I realize that Kent State is struggling in 2024 and has been for the last season-and-a-half, but I always say that for any given point spread, I like to feel like both teams have earned their role. KSU is a valid home dog. BSU is the furthest thing from a valid road favorite you will ever see. The Cardinals have lost four straight games, two times by 3 points, two times by 56 points or more. They have allowed 51.8 PPG during that stretch. 

Because of that brutal defense, Kent State is actually backed by a revenge angle that we’ve played successfully on multiple occasions this season: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 209-163 ATS (56.2%) since 2016. The Golden Flashes are also 16-11 ATS (59.3%) in revenge mode since 2016. Keep in mind, this revenge comes from a 34-3 game in which KSU was outgained 388-97, but with over 70% of the handle and bets going all-in on a pathetic road favorite like Ball State, I like the chances anyway.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet:  I’ll go Kent State +6.5 as the lesser of two evil options

Cincinnati at UCF

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

I would put Cincinnati in a group of teams that are better than expected this season in my mind, and I’m not surprised to be seeing a lot of backing on them from the betting public this week at DraftKings, 83% of the handle nonetheless. That is actually a favorable thing for a road dog: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). The Bearcats come off a tough loss at Texas Tech, a 44-41 decision that benefits them from a system standpoint: College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 59-40-2 ATS (59.6%) over the last 10 years. 

They also have revenge on their minds from last year’s 28-26 loss in Cincy. Their stronger defensive performance to date qualifies them for another nice system backing: Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 639-553 ATS (53.6%). UCF has lost back-to-back games, and I think oddsmakers are finally coming around to the thought of them being overrated. Plus, UCF has lost its last eight games ATS as a favorite in conference play.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s take the +3 points with Cincinnati

Kansas State at Colorado

Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET

I have proclaimed my support of Colorado on multiple occasions this season, and even in the offseason when opting for a season win total Over wager. That said, this week’s game against Kansas State might represent the best and most focused opponent that Coach Prime’s team has faced in 2024. The Wildcats have played just one nine-minute stretch of bad football this season. Unfortunately, it cost them in a loss at BYU, but I believe it also led to a score that misrepresented the game entirely and has since affected the way bettors and oddsmakers look at them. 

In my opinion, head coach Chris Kleiman’s team is the class of the Big 12, and games like this give them a chance to prove it. As I indicated before however, I have been a vocal and financial supporter of Colorado a lot lately. I don’t like this spot, though, as I fear what the two weeks since the huge upset at UCF might have done to this team’s hunger, focus, and perhaps ego. 

They will be a fade play on two systems that have been successful in recent years: 1) Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 26-45 ATS (36.6%) since 2010. 2) Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 131-182-1 ATS (41.9%) over the last decade-plus.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 4 points with Kansas State on the road

Air Force at New Mexico

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET

Air Force has beaten New Mexico five straight times since 2018 by 18 points or more on each occasion. Suddenly, with the Falcons struggling, New Mexico now finds itself as a 6.5-point favorite for this weekend’s matchup. Now, while it seems like I am ready to fire on Air Force for this reason, I am not. I realize that this version of head coach Troy Calhoun’s team is not anywhere near the level of its predecessors. However, I do still believe that the Falcons are going to be able to do what they have gotten used to offensively versus the Lobos, that being running the football. 

In fact, with New Mexico allowing 242.6 YPG on the ground, 43.8 PPG and over 500+ YPG overall, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that we will finally see Air Force have some offensive success in 2024. Let’s face it: 11.4 PPG is not what we expected to see. The trends support my feeling too, with Over the total 9-1 in the last 10 of the Air Force-New Mexico series, and New Mexico is 4-16 (20%) ATS as a favorite since 2018, meaning that they give up too many points to be successful laying points. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s team is much better offensively than defensively and plays accordingly.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 54 in New Mexico-Air Force

Arizona at BYU

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET

Just using the Phil Steele projections as a guide, he had Arizona tied for fourth in the Big 12 for this season, while BYU was 14th. Naturally, a lot has happened since. The Cougars are now considered a legit threat in the conference. However, has so much happened in their 5-0 start and the 3-2 start of the Wildcats for us to be witnessing a change of what theoretically would be a 12.5-point swing from the start of the season? 

Arizona had a 53.5 power rating on Week 1, BYU had a 43.5. That means with 2.5 points applied for home field, the Wildcats would have been 7.5-point favorites then. Now, they are 5-point dogs. That’s a lot of pressure on BYU here, especially since like other Big 12 foes, Arizona is more accustomed to this type of travel scenario. Head coach Brent Brennan’s team also has the player that would arguably be considered the best on the field on Sunday in QB Noah Fafita, who is down some this season but seems to be getting more comfortable in the new systems. He needs to clean up the turnovers, as he’s already tied last year’s total of six interceptions. 

That said, on an effective yards-per-play basis, I have these two teams as identical, +2.94 YPP. I am not comfortable laying points here, and with 91% of the handle and 86% of the bets coming in on BYU, I fear bettors are falling into a trap.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet:  I’m going against the grain and backing Arizona +5 at BYU

South Carolina at Alabama

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

There was naturally a letdown situation for Alabama going to Vanderbilt last week, coming off the huge emotional win over Georgia. I’m not sure anyone thought the Tide would lose outright, though. That said, after losing that one to the Commodores, does anyone think that head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team could struggle again this week versus South Carolina? This system titled “Upset losses as huge favorites snowball” sure makes it seem possible: Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 39-66 SU and 36-65-4 ATS (35.6%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. 

The Gamecocks are off a bad 27-3 loss to Ole Miss, but their defensive numbers are still very good, as they are allowing just 296 YPG overall, and are holding teams 1.7 yards per play below their usual averages. That is 11th in the country right now. They’ve also played Alabama well lately, going 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. There’s also 70%+ handle support on Alabama, making this a highly public game. I don’t expect a rout.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: I’ll go South Carolina +21 here

Texas at Oklahoma

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

One of my favorite betting situations is when bettors don’t share my sentiments of who the best teams are. Right now, I believe the top team in the country is Texas. The Longhorns have remained dominant despite having to go to a second-string QB the last couple of games. Now granted, not every team has an Arch Manning waiting in the wings, but I think it goes to show that this head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is so much more than just its elite QBs. Their current Effective Strength Rating of +49.1 is #1 in the country as they prepare to face their ultimate rival in the ultimate rivalry game, the Red River Rivalry. In terms of that key rating set, Oklahoma is currently at 30.2, or in other words 19 points less than the Longhorns.

Texas is not only much better, therefore, but will be fueled by the motivation of revenge from last season’s shocking come-from-behind 34-30 win by the Sooners. However, better defensive teams are great in revenge: Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 639-553 ATS (53.6%). One other key thing about that game: Oklahoma had QB Dillon Gabriel and was clicking offensively. This year’s Sooners are averaging just 28.6 PPG and are juggling the QB situation. I don’t think they can keep up against Texas’ now elite defense.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 14 points with Texas

Ole Miss at LSU

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

I will have a completely different logic argument in my next best bet on the Ohio State-Oregon game, as the numbers in this one point to the road favorite, too, but in my opinion, the Ole Miss numbers so far need to be treated with a grain of salt. And quite frankly, there’s way too much info going the other way to ignore. There are few times when bettors get the chance to ever back LSU in Death Valley on a Saturday night as home dogs. Baton Rouge at night is one of the toughest environments in all of college football. Are the Rebels prepared? After running the score up on four non-conference foes early in the season, I might have said so, but the last two weeks have me thinking otherwise. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s team has put up just 44 points in these two SEC tilts, losing one of them. 

Meanwhile, LSU has won four straight since its opening loss to USC, scoring 39 PPG in the process. Home field is usually important in these ranked vs. ranked games: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 178-88 SU and 151-107-8 ATS (58.5%). Home-field advantage is also key in this head-to-head rivalry: Home teams are on a 10-1 ATS surge in the Ole Miss-LSU series. If that weren’t enough, the Tigers have two revenge angles to lean on based on last year’s 55-49 decision: 1) LSU is 15-6 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) in revenge mode since 2016 and 2) Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 639-553 ATS (53.6%).

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: Let’s go LSU +3 for the big one in Baton Rouge

Ohio State at Oregon

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Yes, I’ve seen the stats about head coach Ryan Day and how his Buckeyes have struggled in big games lately. And I know that over 70% of the money and bets are on Ohio State against Oregon. Of course, I know the home-field stats regarding ranked games and how important HFA is. I post them every week in this column. And finally, yes, I know OSU is having to travel across the country for this huge tilt in one of the nation’s toughest environments. 

That said, I can’t look past the fact that one of these teams is now elite (Ohio State), and the other is a tier 2 team (Oregon). It might wind up being different later in the year, and QB Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks seemingly improve each time out, but right now, they just aren’t at the level of the Buckeyes. My Effective Strength Ratings demonstrate the difference. In scoring, OSU is +45.2, and Oregon is +30.5. In yardage per play, OSU is +4.74, ORE +3.25. At this point in time, Oregon is closer to teams like Iowa State or BYU in both categories. If either of those teams were playing, would you have a problem laying the points with Ohio State? Probably not, and me neither. With OSU 7-2 ATS in the last nine as a single-digit road Big Ten favorite, I look for them to roll.

Week 7 College Football Best Bet: I’m laying the 3 points with Ohio State

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