College Football Week 7 Late Line Movement Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

I love this time of year when the college football schedule ramps up into conference play, and we start getting some Group of 5 weeknight games to wet the beak for the weekend slate of games. While FIU took Liberty to overtime and New Mexico State got taken to the woodshed by Jacksonville State, weekend lines on the board were moving, so let’s see where the steam has gone too far and where we can capitalize on some line movement — or lack thereof in some cases — for college football Week 7 games.

 

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Toledo (-9.5; 44.5) vs. Buffalo 

Circa opened this total right where it’s at on Sunday, and within one minute, it had been bet up to 47.5. We’ve seen the market drive it back down, but I agree with the initial sharp move here. TSI projects 47 points in this game. The average TSI defensive ranking in this game is 90th, and Toledo is averaging 35 points per game themselves. When I’m betting an Over, I like the comfort of knowing at least one team is capable of getting close to the number themselves, which I think Toledo is capable of. If we get any contributions from Buffalo against a bad Toledo defense, this should come home easily. After digging through this season’s results so far, I posted on my X account this week (@TShoeIndex) that totals between 41.5-45 have gone Over the total 66% of the time this season. I’d obviously never blindly bet that, nor would I encourage you to, but a data trend combined with a TSI projection all telling me the same thing makes it hard to pass up.

College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Over 44.5 (Play to 45)

Miami (OH) (-2.5; 46.5) vs. Eastern Michigan 

Sticking with some #MACtion, this total has a similar story to the first game; the line opened at 45.5 before quickly getting bet down to 44, only for the market to drive this number back up to 46.5. Again, I agree with the initial move, as TSI projects just 43 points in this game. Miami Unders have been a cash cow for me this year, so I’m more than happy to go back to the well for more with the Redhawks’ dreadful offense. The average TSI offense in this game is ranked #114, while the Redhawks’ defense is just outside the top 50 — thankfully, Miami (OH) doesn’t have the offensive capability to capitalize on a pretty bad EMU defense. In my research this week, I noted that totals between 45.5 (above the key number of 45) and 50 have gone under the total 58% of the time, so again, alignment on data trends and TSI projection makes this a best bet for me. 

College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Under 46.5 (Play to 45.5)

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