Betting Edges for College Football Week 7 & NFL Week 6:
We just had another pretty strong week for the new football strength metric I recently introduced, called the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings. Readers seem to be embracing the concept, and those backing the college games I have listed over the last few weeks have fared quite well. After last week’s college football games went 10-5 ATS, we are now at 27-18 ATS in all, good for 60%. The two weeks of pro games have produced 3-3 ATS records each week, but considering how wild the NFL betting results have been in that time, I guess I should be satisfied with a .500 record. As promised, I am continuing the process of calculating the point spread versus rating variances and providing these games for readers every week until further notice.
I would encourage you to go back and read any of the three earlier articles on the introduction and further details of the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for college and pro football. Those can be found under my author tag. For now, though, here are the top 25 college teams and full NFL ratings, plus the top variances in terms of my new rating metric against the actual lines for this weekend, college football Week 7 and NFL Week 6.
College Football Top 25 teams in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. NOTRE DAME: 74.2
2. OHIO STATE: 72.8
3. OREGON: 72
4. USC: 69.9
5. MICHIGAN: 69
6. TEXAS A&M: 68
7. INDIANA: 67.3
8. OLD DOMINION: 66.9
9. FLORIDA STATE: 66
10. ALABAMA: 65.2
11. OLE MISS: 65.2
12. VANDERBILT: 63.3
13. MIAMI FL: 63.1
14. TEXAS TECH: 62.6
15. CINCINNATI: 61.9
16. TENNESSEE: 60.7
17. BYU: 60.4
18. WASHINGTON: 60.4
19. GEORGIA TECH: 60.1
20. ARKANSAS: 59.8
21. OKLAHOMA: 59.2
22. TEXAS: 59
23. MISSOURI: 57.6
24. DUKE: 57.1
25. NEBRASKA: 56.4
Interesting here in that Notre Dame has climbed to the top spot in the ratings, despite not covering last week versus Boise State. That was unfortunately one of our five losses last week, although those who got in on Notre Dame -20.5 got a win with the 28-7 final. The Irish can’t afford any more losses if they want to reach the College Football Playoff, but according to these ratings, it shouldn’t be a concern, as they are the nation’s best team on an Effective Play-by-Play basis. Old Dominion remains high on the list at No. 8, and after another rout against Coastal Carolina. I’m starting to wonder if these ratings are on to something. The Monarchs have the look of a Group of 5 team ready to crash the CFP. This should be a huge week in the Big Ten with Ohio State-Illinois, Indiana-Oregon and Michigan-USC all on tap for Saturday. Five of those teams are among the top 7 above.
All NFL Teams Ranked in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. LOS ANGELES RAMS: 37.5
2. GREEN BAY PACKERS: 34.5
3. BALTIMORE RAVENS: 34.2
4. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 32.7
5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 29.8
6. ATLANTA FALCONS: 28.9
7. HOUSTON TEXANS: 28.7
8. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: 28.7
9. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: 28.6
10. DETROIT LIONS: 27.8
11. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 27.5
12. DENVER BRONCOS: 26.9
13. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 26.9
14. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: 26.1
15. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 25.6
16. CLEVELAND BROWNS: 24.8
17. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: 24.3
18. BUFFALO BILLS: 23.9
19. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 22.4
20. DALLAS COWBOYS: 22.3
21. NEW YORK JETS: 22.1
22. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: 21.9
23. NEW YORK GIANTS: 19.2
24. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: 18.6
25. ARIZONA CARDINALS: 18.2
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS: 17.7
27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 16.7
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: 15.9
29. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 15.7
30. MIAMI DOLPHINS: 14.4
31. CHICAGO BEARS: 12.7
32. TENNESSEE TITANS: 11.2
The Rams move up to the top spot despite last week’s upset loss to the 49ers. Sometimes teams can move up by virtue of what the teams they have already faced do in a given week, regardless of their result. Baltimore drops from first to third after a brutal loss to Houston. However, without QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens’ rating would actually be 27.2. For figuring these metrics against the actual lines, you need to factor in any injuries and home-field allowance like you would for any other rating set.
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 7 college football lines:
Here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences.
1. (133) OLD DOMINION at (134) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL +14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL +37.3
Difference: 22.8, Favors: OLD DOMINION
2. (119) RUTGERS at (120) WASHINGTON
Actual Line: WASHINGTON -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON -33.1
Difference: 22.6, Favors: WASHINGTON
3. (205) UTAH STATE at (206) HAWAII
Actual Line: HAWAII -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: HAWAII +18
Difference: 19.5, Favors: UTAH STATE
4. (151) MIAMI OHIO at (152) AKRON
Actual Line: AKRON +11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AKRON +27.6
Difference: 16.1, Favors: MIAMI OHIO
5. (179) FLORIDA at (180) TEXAS A&M
Actual Line: TEXAS A&M -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS A&M -21.1
Difference: 13.6, Favors: TEXAS A&M
6. (153) TOLEDO at (154) BOWLING GREEN
Actual Line: BOWLING GREEN +10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOWLING GREEN +23.6
Difference: 13.1, Favors: TOLEDO
7. (143) VIRGINIA TECH at (144) GEORGIA TECH
Actual Line: GEORGIA TECH -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA TECH -26.5
Difference: 12, Favors: GEORGIA TECH
8. (103) LIBERTY at (104) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTEP -9.4
Difference: 10.9, Favors: UTEP
9. (127) UAB at (128) FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Actual Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +4
Difference: 9.5, Favors: UAB
10. (199) WAKE FOREST at (200) OREGON STATE
Actual Line: OREGON STATE +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON STATE +12.3
Difference: 9.3, Favors: WAKE FOREST
11. (177) ARKANSAS at (178) TENNESSEE
Actual Line: TENNESSEE -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TENNESSEE -3.5
Difference: 9, Favors: ARKANSAS
12. (189) HOUSTON at (190) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +23.3
Difference: 8.8, Favors: HOUSTON
13. (137) NORTHWESTERN at (138) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -21.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE -13.2
Difference: 8.3, Favors: NORTHWESTERN
14. (185) STANFORD at (186) SMU
Actual Line: SMU -19.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SMU -12
Difference: 7.5, Favors: STANFORD
15. (167) ARIZONA STATE at (168) UTAH
Actual Line: UTAH -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH +1.3
Difference: 7.3, Favors: ARIZONA STATE
Comparing the Effective Play-by-Play equivalent ratings to the actual Week 6 NFL lines:
Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences.
1. (277) CHICAGO BEARS at (278) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Actual Line: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -18.4
Difference: 13.9, Favors: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
2. (271) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (272) GREEN BAY PACKERS
Actual Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS -25.3
Difference: 11.3, Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS
3. (253) CLEVELAND BROWNS at (254) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.6
Difference: 11.1, Favors: CLEVELAND BROWNS
4. (267) TENNESSEE TITANS at (268) LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Actual Line: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -15.9
Difference: 10.4, Favors: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
5. (259) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at (260) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Actual Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8.6
Difference: 10.1, Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
6. (275) BUFFALO BILLS at (276) ATLANTA FALCONS
Actual Line: ATLANTA FALCONS +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ATLANTA FALCONS -6.3
Difference: 9.8, Favors: BUFFALO BILLS
