Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee
Shout-out to Conference USA once again this week for keeping our string of 61 straight days with an NFL or college football game intact. The conference will play two games on Tuesday and two games on Wednesday to get Week 7 underway. Based on the spreads, we should have competitive games, as Delaware is a slight road favorite at Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State is around a field goal favorite hosting FIU. Similar lines are in play for Wednesday.
But, before we get to Hump Day, we have to get through Tuesday, and that means the games in Murfreesboro, TN and Jacksonville, AL. These two games are on pretty equal footing for me, in that there isn’t a bet I like more than another, so let’s just look at them both.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 12, 4:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Delaware (-1, 48) vs. Middle Tennessee
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
The first step for any Group of Six game in the month of October is to take a look at the strength of schedule for each team. Jeff Sagarin ranks Delaware 88th in that department and Middle Tennessee 121st, as the Blue Raiders have wins over Nevada and Murray State, with losses to Marshall, Jacksonville State, and Kansas. The Blue Hens have dubs over Merrimack and Coastal Carolina, with losses to Vanderbilt, Virginia, and Liberty. Sagarin ranks all 266 FBS and FCS teams. Delaware is 124th. Middle Tennessee is 157th. There are only 138 FBS teams.
Both offenses grade below average, but Delaware does have better than six yards per play over their games against Coastal Carolina and Liberty. Middle Tennessee was held to just 3.24 YPP by Kansas, but has 5.16 YPP against G6 FBS teams. Probably the most disappointing element of the season for the Blue Raiders is that former Vanderbilt head coach and power-conference defensive coordinator Derek Mason hasn’t improved the defense at all. MTSU has allowed over 6.6 yards per play and nearly six yards per play to non-power FBS opponents. Delaware has allowed 5.5 YPP overall, but 6.2 YPP to Coastal and Liberty. Liberty ran for 282 yards on them. Middle Tennessee has only rushed for 620 yards over five games.
Combined, these two teams only have 24 red-zone trips, with 14 for Delaware. But, MTSU has only turned the ball over twice and they still only have 10 trips inside the 20-yard-line. That’ll happen when sitting 136th in the nation in third-down conversion rate at just 26.79%. Delaware isn’t much better, sitting 127th at 29.85%.
Delaware has 16 sacks, while Middle Tennessee only has two. That should give Nick Minicucci the advantage at QB and I simply think the Blue Hens are the better team.
Pick: Delaware -1
FIU vs. Jacksonville State (-3, 43.5)
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
It is pretty crazy that FIU is leaving the state of Florida for a game for the first time on October 13, but here we are. The Panthers lost road games in Tampa and Boca Raton, coming up short against South Florida and FAU, but they are 3-0 in Pitbull Stadium at home in Miami.
Jacksonville State is 1-2 on the road, eking out a 27-26 win over Kennesaw State last week in a game that was lined pretty similarly to this one. The difference here is that the Gamecocks are at home, so we can see the higher regard that FIU is held in relative to the Owls. I’ve actually been a bit disappointed with the Gamecocks thus far. Caden Creel clearly misses Cam Cook, who rushed for over 1,600 yards last season. Jalen Likely has been solid, but without Cook, Creel, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season, only has 4.7 YPC this season. He’s also thrown for nearly as many yards (1,423) in 41 fewer pass attempts than he had last season (1,514), a sign of how the team has had to adjust a bit without Cook.
Willie Simmons is doing a phenomenal job at FIU, a very tough place to win. He’d be doing even better if he had a running game and a QB who took care of the football. App State transfer JJ Kohl has a 5/7 TD/INT ratio and the leading rushers by attempts have 3.2 and 3.9 yards per tote. Despite the mostly punchless offense, FIU is 12th in the nation in defensive points per drive, so that side of the ball has really carried the team.
That is why I’m looking at the Under here. FIU has only allowed 2.74 yards per carry. They actually lead the nation in yards per play allowed. They do rank 138th in strength of schedule per Sagarin, but Jacksonville State is ranked 101st and has the 124th-ranked slate of opponents, so this isn’t that big of a step up in class. While the Panthers have a good defense, they are 112th in the nation in yards per play on offense and 121st in points per game.
Pick: Under 43.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 6 games on our Pro Picks Page.
