It isn’t really an Opening Line Report if it comes out on a Monday, as all of the games have had a chance to settle in a bit, but the one-day delay does mean that there is a lot more information out there on what early bettors think and how oddsmakers have reacted. In a sport like college football, where a team’s performance can be so wildly different from game to game, it can be really hard to have a good handle on what to expect going forward. Similarly, past results can improve or get worse based on what other teams have done following an early head-to-head meeting. If it sounds confusing, that’s because it is.
But, we have a ton of Top 25 matchups and marquee games this week, plus some not-so-marquee games with some interesting notes and nuggets to look at from a betting odds standpoint.
Week 7 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Monday, October 12 at 5:00 p.m. ET
Delaware (-1, 48) at Middle Tennessee
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
This is the first game of Week 7 and a game that has gotten a surprising amount of interest. Delaware opened -2.5 at Circa and it looks like we might be trending towards a flipped favorite situation. DraftKings actually got as high as 3 on Sunday before gradually coming back down to -1.5. Most of the market was sitting -1.5 as of Monday afternoon, but Circa’s -1 price suggests that they’ve taken some Blue Raiders support and may be expecting more of it.
Colorado State at Texas State (-14, 70)
Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
We don’t see a lot of totals approaching this number these days, but this looks like a potential track meet. Circa opened 68 here and other shops opened as low as 67. In terms of FBS vs. FBS games, we’ve had one total of 70+ in each of the last two seasons. Week 8 last season had South Florida and Florida Atlantic at 72.5 and then Week 13 of the 2024 season had a 73.5 between North Texas and East Carolina. We’ll see what kind of outcome we get in San Marcos here.
Ohio State (-3.5, 50.5) at Indiana
Saturday, Noon ET
A big one in Bloomington here. This line really hasn’t seen a whole lot of movement as of yet. Some of the 51s in the market dropped down to 50.5, but the spread has pretty much been stagnant. Circa opened 3.5. DraftKings opened 3 with some extra vig. Pretty much everybody is on 3.5 now with the juice dancing around a little bit. This game is going to draw a massive handle and we’ll likely see a continuation of the public money on Ohio State. If you see the line swing towards Indiana, that’s your sign of sharp money on the Hoosiers.
Florida at Texas (-11.5, 52)
Saturday, Noon ET
Market dynamics are pretty funny. Based on how I had these two teams valued, it sure seems like Florida has been punished heavily for losing to Missouri and South Carolina, while Texas losing to Oklahoma seemed to just get shrugged off. Neither data point on Sunday was good for these teams, but Texas went from -10 up to -11.5 at Circa, even though they are pretty awful on offense. Most of the market was sitting 10.5 as of Monday afternoon. It’s not like 11 is a super valuable number in college or otherwise, but it is interesting to see Circa digging in where they did.
Northwestern (-7.5, 49.5) at Michigan State
Saturday, Noon ET
Fresh off of a beatdown of Ball State, Northwestern is on the road to take on Sparty in East Lansing. The only other time the Purple Cats were favored on the road at Michigan State was 2020, as they were -13.5 during that weird COVID season and actually lost the game outright by a 29-20 final. They’re laying more than a touchdown here. Not only that, but this is Northwestern’s first road favorite role since Week 3 of the 2021 season when they lost 30-23 at Duke as a 2.5-point favorite. The power of Chip Kelly! This line was as high as 9.5, and Circa opened 8.5, but it has ticked down a tad.
TCU at Baylor (-6, 48.5)
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Circa opened this Lone Star State showdown at 7, but we’re seeing lots of 5.5s in the marketplace now. At 8 Fremont St., 6 is the number still holding on, but remember that it takes very little activity to move a number between 4 and 6 in college football. That’s why I don’t think we should read too much into this one going to 5 or 5.5 or whatever. I think we read into it if it moves back up to 7. For now, just somebody or somebodies who prefer TCU in what does look like it could be a lower-scoring game, as the Under has been the preferred side of the total.
Florida State at Miami (-21, 55)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
We’ll see where this number goes, but this is knocking on the door of the biggest favorite role for Miami against Florida State in a very long time. The Hurricanes were -21.5 back in 2024 and that one fell almost right on the number in a 36-14 win for the ‘Canes. This line hasn’t really moved much, but the sheer size of it in the head-to-head rivalry was worth a mention.
Notre Dame (-10, 47) at BYU
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
I’m torn as to whether or not this is a true position on BYU or just a numbers play. Circa opened Notre Dame -11.5 and most of the market was -10.5 or 11, but there were some 9.5s out there on Monday afternoon. Points may be at a premium here, and we have seen the total tick down a little bit, so there’s some correlation here between expecting a lower-scoring game and scooping the value of 10+ points with BYU. I tend to think it’s more about that than it is somebody finding a reason to pick against Notre Dame or play on BYU.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
