East Carolina vs. Tulane
Conference USA serving as the only game in town on Wednesday probably didn’t excite a whole lot of folks, aside from having games on Hump Day. C-USA is once again represented on Thursday, but alongside the Sun Belt and the American Conference and we have a potential banger with East Carolina vs. Tulane.
Louisiana Tech vs. Kennesaw State, Southern Miss vs. Georgia Southern, and Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston State will all get a little press in this piece, but East Carolina vs. Tulane is obviously the game of the night and one that has the potential to impact the College Football Playoff picture, as Memphis is currently the favorite for that Group of Five berth and runs into both of these teams in the regular season, if not another time in the American Conference Championship Game. Oh, and we get South Florida vs. North Texas on Friday night, so a huge spotlight for the conference this week.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 6, 4:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions.
East Carolina Pirates at Tulane Green Wave (-6.5, 53.5)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Last season, it was Tulane in the running for the G5 CFP bid, but they ruined that opportunity with a late loss to Memphis and followed that up with a debacle against Army. This season, Tulane still has a chance, as their lone loss came at the hands of Ole Miss and they have a couple of Power Four wins in their pockets against Northwestern and Duke. The Duke win is aging really well also.
But, for Tulane to keep that playoff dream alive, they need to avoid slip-ups in games like this. East Carolina has losses to two Power Four opponents, NC State and BYU, but they’ve won their other three games by a combined score of 122-9, including a blowout win over Army last time out.
Both teams enter on extra rest, as ECU played on Thursday night two weeks ago and Tulane on Saturday in Week 5. The Green Wave have played the 31st-ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin and the Pirates have played the 85th, so Tulane is rightly favored by a touchdown and this will be a good measuring stick for East Carolina.
The Pirates have actually done better on offense than Tulane, but this is where the context matters. ECU has 5.65 yards per play against FBS opponents and Tulane has 5.6. So, basically, take away the Campbell game and the two offenses are even, while the Green Wave have played the stronger set of opponents.
The Pirates are a top-30 defense by yards per play and that’s not something that surprises me. The caliber of foe does matter, but Blake Harrell was a very good DC and ECU has been solid on that side of the ball since he took over as the interim head coach midway through last season when Mike Houston was canned. Again, though, the FCS outlier matters, as Campbell had 2.4 yards per play and all of four rushing yards. Against FBS opponents, the Pirates have surrendered 5.27 YPP.
Tulane has allowed a half-yard per play more against FBS teams, so that seems fairly equal taking into account how much better the offenses have been that the Green Wave have faced.
Third down will be huge in this one, as it is in most games. East Carolina is 13th in the nation at nearly 54%, while Tulane is 49th at 43.6%. Tulane is 91st in third-down defense at 41.5% and East Carolina is 30th at 31.9%. Both teams have also had issues finishing drives with touchdowns, coming in well below the national average in TD% in the red zone. But both have also been stout defensively inside the 20.
A lot of similar metrics, but Tulane has played the better schedule and the dual-threat nature of Jake Retzlaff truly makes the difference. Katin Houser has a 7/4 TD/INT ratio for ECU, but he also has just 51 yards on 31 carries. Retzlaff only has two TD passes with zero interceptions and does boast just a 54.4% completion rate, but he’s averaging over 6.3 yards per carry and has seven rushing TDs. ECU has only rushed for 3.5 yards per carry, a whole yard and a half lower than Tulane.
All that said, Tulane is the side here. Shop around or stay patient for a 6.5 to potentially pop, as that’s always preferred to 7. DraftKings and Fanduel (extra vig) had one at time of writing, as did ESPNBet and Fanatics, while MGM, Circa, and Caesars were all showing 7, some at -105. Try to find a 6.5. I’m okay with 7 too.
Pick: Tulane -6.5 (play up to -7)
Other Thursday Games
Louisiana Tech (-6.5, 45.5) at Kennesaw State (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU): The Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start in conference play and the Owls are 1-0, as Louisiana Tech lays a road number against Kennesaw State. LA Tech has scored at least 30 points in each of their three conference games and only lost 23-7 to LSU. This was one of the nation’s best scoring defenses last season and they haven’t really missed a beat despite the loss of DC Jeremiah Johnson to Coastal Carolina.
Kennesaw State nearly upset Wake Forest in Week 1 and then got pummeled by Indiana before beating Merrimack, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee to exceed last year’s win total in their first season as a FBS member. The Owls have allowed fewer than five yards per play to everybody except Indiana (8.85). LA Tech has held C-USA opponents to 4.73 YPP and even held LSU to 4.87 YPP. But, the Bulldogs are just 122nd in YPP on offense and they have scored four non-offensive TDs in the last three games, including two pick-sixes last game.
Pick: Under 45.5
Southern Miss (-3.5, 59.5) at Georgia Southern (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Southern Miss was one of LA Tech’s victims, but they bounced back nicely with a 17-point win over Jacksonville State. Now the Golden Eagles head out for their second road game to Statesboro to take on Georgia Southern. The Eagles, not to be confused with the Golden Eagles, were a fade team for me entering this season, as head coach Clay Helton had his first returning QB in JC French, but he also had the lowest yards per play and scoring averages of his tenure with French at the helm.
So far this season, nothing has really changed. The offense is still below average and even managed just 3.8 yards per play in the conference opener against James Madison. Georgia Southern has faced a much stiffer schedule than Southern Miss, though. This line looks pretty reasonable and this is not a game that I have a bet on.
Jacksonville State (-7.5, 55.5) at Sam Houston State (8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): Back to Conference USA, where Sam Houston State gets a little bit of a break here. The Bearkats have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the nation per Jeff Sagarin, while the Gamecocks have played the 109th-ranked schedule. And Jacksonville State has given up 41 to Georgia Southern and 42 to Southern Miss.
Unfortunately, under first-year head coach, and 2010s offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, the Bearkats have only mustered 4.49 yards per play to this point. They do have 5.5 YPP against Western Kentucky and New Mexico State in conference, but they also lost those games by 17 and 27 points. I’m not keen on laying a big road number with a bad defense, even if the Bearkats offense might have healing powers.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 7 games on our Pro Picks Page.
