Liberty vs. UTEP
MACtion it is not, but maybe we can come up with a creative name for Wednesday night Conference USA football. Week 7 kicks off a day earlier than normal with Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee and Liberty vs. UTEP. Three of those four teams have 1-4 records thus far and the best record of the bunch belongs to Missouri State, who is 2-3 in their first season as a FBS member.
These games may test the “any football is better than no football” theory, but games of this caliber are a reminder of why legalized sports betting is so great. If you don’t know anything at all about these teams, don’t go overboard. Maybe a small entertainment wager with nothing else to really watch on a Wednesday. If you do know about these teams, then you’re probably ahead of the curve, as C-USA will play games on Tuesday and Wednesday through the rest of October.
Let’s look at Liberty vs. UTEP first and then Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 6, 4:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Liberty Flames (-2, 47.5) at UTEP Miners
Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
The sun will be setting at the Sun Bowl around halftime of this one down in El Paso. This game is played at some elevation down on the Mexico border, as the city sits 3,740 feet above sea level. We’ll see if that impacts Liberty as the game goes along, but it may not even matter if the Flames continue to be impacted by seemingly everything else.
I whiffed big time on Liberty, as it seemed like Ethan Vasko, who head coach Jamey Chadwell recruited to Coastal Carolina to run his offense, might be an upgrade for this scheme over Kaidon Salter. It turns out that assumption was incorrect, as Vasko has been awful and Liberty has scored all of 57 points in four games against FBS opponents. Vasko has only completed 57% of his throws with a 6/3 TD/INT ratio.
Backup QB Michael Merdinger got a look in the game against Old Dominion and was 6-for-11 passing, but he was also sacked three times, as Vasko missed the game due to injury. Overall, Liberty has allowed 14 sacks already. They’ve had just 5.3 yards per play on offense against 6.1 yards per play allowed in those four FBS games. Even in the 28-7 win over Maine, it was a 7-7 game into the fourth quarter.
The UTEP defense deserves a ton of credit so far this season. They’ve allowed under five yards per play and even held Texas – yes, that Texas – to 4.2 yards per play. In their conference opener against Louisiana Tech, the Miners only allowed 3.4 yards per play, but lost the game 30-11. Malachi Nelson was benched after going 18-of-38 for 73 yards with four interceptions. Nelson will get another crack here. He’s a former five-star recruit that originally committed to USC.
Nelson and the Miners have only dug up 5.15 yards per play for the season and just 4.46 YPP against FBS teams. They are also -5 in turnover margin with 11 giveaways, but the defense has found six takeaways to keep the gap from being as large as it could be.
It has been a really poor set of performances for Liberty this season. UTEP is below the teams that they’ve lost to, but they have lost all four FBS games by double digits and I truly wonder if Chadwell has lost the locker room. Last year’s team came nowhere close to expectations, with some close wins in huge favorite roles and also a hideous loss to Kennesaw State.
It feels like Scotty Walden is at least keeping the positivity up in El Paso and Liberty has one of the worst run defenses in the nation with 5.5 yards per carry allowed, so he can take the ball out of Nelson’s hands more often.
Pick: UTEP +2
Other Wednesday Game
Missouri State (-2.5, 50.5) at Middle Tennessee: ESPN 2 has this one at 7:30 p.m ET. The men of Murfreesboro have not had a good season. They did erase a deficit on the road at Nevada for their only win, but they’ve also got a loss to FCS Austin Peay on the ledger. Second-year head coach Derek Mason has an offense that ranks 121st in yards per play and a defense that ranks 116th. Oddly, the Blue Raiders have been better against FBS opponents, as they had below 2.6 YPP against the Governors.
Missouri State QB Jacob Clark is questionable after leaving the last game and then coming back to the sideline on crutches. The Bears have wins over Marshall and UT Martin sandwiched around losses to USC, SMU, and Western Kentucky. Backup QB Deuce Bailey was 7-of-16 for 57 yards with a passing TD last time out and he had nine carries for 64 yards. MTSU should probably prepare for him over Clark, based on the size of the knee brace Clark sported when he came back to the sideline a week and a half ago.
I don’t have a bet in this game, but it would behoove you to keep an eye on these two teams as they are both off next week, but play again on Wednesday in two weeks.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 7 games on our Pro Picks Page.
