College Football Week 8 Best Bets and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

I was 7-1/2 points away from what would have been an epic college football best bet week, as I had losing games that were off on the point spread or total by 1, ½, 2, and 4 points. That was four out of the six games I lost last weekend. Of the 10 wins, most were in comfortable fashion, although I will thank the gambling gods for what happened in the Ball State-Kent State contest. As bettors, we do need to be grateful when we are blessed with some good fortune. All in all, it was a 10-6 Week 7 result to push my season record to 62-49-2 ATS (55.9%). We have a huge Week 8 slate on tap, the biggest of the year so far. It also includes a pair of games that might also be the biggest we’ve seen. Because of the huge volume this week, I was able to find 19 games I have an opinion on. Let’s get right into handicapping this huge week with my college football Week 8 best bets:

 

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Boston College at Virginia Tech

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

In general, I would say that I’m not a big fan of laying points with a team that is somewhat underachieving in a season when facing one that is playing better than expected. I believe that is the case in this Boston College-Virginia Tech game on Thursday night. This was supposed to be a huge year for the Hokies, yet they sit 3-3 with several difficult games left to play. BC, on the other hand, was figured to be rebuilding this season under new head coach Bill O’Brien, yet it is 4-2 and is “effectively” playing just 1.7 PPG, which is worse on average than Virginia Tech. 

So, how did this line get all the way up to 7? I don’t think bettors are falling for it either, with 52% of them at DK backing BC. When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). Furthermore, when the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 & 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! With the Hokies coming off a nice 31-7 win over a beat-up Stanford team, they will also fall into this trend: Virginia Tech is 5-20 (20%) ATS in the last 25 games following up a SU win. I look for a tight game here.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Boston College +7 on Thursday night

Georgia State at Marshall

Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Marshall has yet to lose on a point spread this season, yet the line for this home contest versus Georgia State is dumping, down about two points from the opening line, despite 77% of the handle at DraftKings coming in on the Thundering Herd. What gives? Typically, with that much one-sided money coming in, the line would move the opposite, almost as if they were inviting more Marshall money in. Perhaps those behind the counter know some of the key trends. 

For one, Marshall has lost to the Panthers in back-to-back years, and is 6-13 ATS (31.6%) in revenge mode since 2016. Second, Georgia State is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 13-3 ATS and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road/neutral games overall. The Herd come off a very disappointing conference loss to Georgia Southern and could have a letdown due to it. This GSU team also beat a much-improved Vanderbilt team earlier in the season. I think anything over a TD line in this game is overstating the difference in these teams.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Georgia State +8.5 at Marshall

Florida State at Duke

Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

You have probably seen the head-to-head history between Florida State & Duke, with FSU on current runs of 22-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS. So why are the Blue Devils favored, and why is 63% of the bets coming in on that side of the ledger at DK? Well, don’t fret about that last part, as when the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! 

I would think that if there is one “revenge” game of the week, this is it, as Duke finally has a realistic shot at ending its horrid losing streak to the Seminoles. You don’t think this game has been circled on head coach Manny Diaz’s calendar, particularly since FSU started reeling? Take a look at this nice revenge system in play: College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 94-15 SU and 73-31-5 ATS (70.2%) since 2016. The Seminoles are also on runs of 10-19 ATS in road/neutral games and in ACC play. Motivation will also come to Duke from playing this game in front of a national TV audience.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Duke -3 rolls against Florida State on Friday night

Miami (FL) at Louisville

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)

Miami continues to survive each passing test, although it is clear that cracks are forming in the foundation. To me, the Hurricanes are a team ripe for the picking, and this would appear to be the most difficult game left on the schedule, at least on paper. Odds makers have made the assignment even tougher by putting Miami up as a 5-point favorite at Louisville. Bettors at DK are buying it hook, line, and sinker, with 80% of bets coming in on the road chalk as of press time. That is not a good sign since when 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). 

If you compare my Effective Strength numbers for these teams right now, you’ll find Miami at 36.3, Louisville at 31.3, as the Cardinals have actually played a tougher schedule to date by almost 6 power ratings points per game. In other words, using those metrics as the basis, the line for this game would be Miami -5 on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Brohm’s team has enjoyed a tremendous home-field edge of late. I’d say at least 3 points, indicating the line should be -2. Using yardage numbers per play, my projection is even tighter, at Miami -1.2.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Louisville +5 at home is too good for this big of a line

Kentucky at Florida

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

I was all over Florida last week at Tennessee, and my ATS convictions were validated in the tight loss in Knoxville. Here’s the problem now facing the Gators, however. By all rights, they should have won that game, but costly turnovers, missed field goals, and other lost opportunities prevented them from winning a season-changing game on the road. Oh, by the way, they also lost their starting quarterback for the season. Now, they face a Kentucky team that has finally turned the tables in head-to-head play. 

After years of dominance by Florida, the Wildcats have won three straight, both SU and ATS. Head coach Mark Stoops’ team also boasts the #7 defense in the country according to my Effective Strength numbers, holding teams 19.8 points below their normal scoring averages. I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out that the Gators will probably find the going tough with their second-string QB facing this unit, even in Gainesville. There’s a reason Kentucky is favored here on the road, and I’m very concerned about head coach Billy Napier’s team’s psyche.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Kentucky -1.5 at Florida

Alabama at Tennessee

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Some of the shine has come off this Alabama-Tennessee game based upon results of the last few weeks, as, to be quite honest, both teams “are not who we thought they were,” to quote Dennis Green. However, to me, Alabama remains the more capable team, as something has gone haywire with the offense of head coach Josh Heupel’s team. Is it Heupel himself? Has he taken his foot too much off the pedal? Does he not trust QB Nico Iamaleava as much as he needs to for this team to be elite? 

Whatever the case, the Vols have gone from scoring 63.7 PPG in their first three outings to just 20.7 PPG in their last three. They’ve also lost back-to-back games against the spread since seeming nearly unbeatable earlier. Now, in comes Alabama, who has also lost two straight against the number. However, in my opinion, the Tide offense remains as big of a threat now as they have at any point in the season. They were held to 27 last week by South Carolina, but the Gamecocks boast a defense that holds teams 16 PPG below their normal scoring averages. That 27 points was nothing to be ashamed of. 

I see many people comparing this game to the one two years ago in Knoxville, where Vols’ QB Hendon Hooker lit up the Tide for 52 points. This offense doesn’t have that capability now, and what is Tennessee using to try and motivate itself? Some quote made by Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer about how the Neyland Stadium crowd isn’t that loud. UT football should be bigger than this, and their 4-12 ATS skid as an underdog is the bigger concern here. That, and Alabama on an extended 14-5-1 ATS run in head-to-head play.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I think Alabama (-3) gets this one on the road

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan

Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

According to my Effective Strength numbers, one of the teams in this directional Michigan matchup is much better than the other. The line does not reflect it. Here are the current ratings: CMU -2.6, EMU 3.8. In other words, the Eagles, who have played a slightly tougher schedule as well, are effectively 6.4 points better than the Chippewas at this point, and that doesn’t even factor in any type of home-field advantage for Saturday. For whatever reason, oddsmakers have only installed a -3.5 line. 

Central Michigan also comes off a tough 27-25 home loss to Ohio U, a game in which they nearly came back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. You’d think a game like that might fuel the Chippewas, but this system says otherwise: Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 73-102 ATS (41.7%) since 2011. EMU also won 38-19 in head-to-head play in 2022, the last time these teams met in Ypsilanti.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3.5-points with Eastern Michigan here

North Texas at Memphis

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

One of the best traits a big road underdog can possess is the ability to put big points up on the scoreboard. In that sense, North Texas might be one of our best options this week, as the Mean Green score 40.8 PPG and have put up 45 PPG in their three most recent contests. Obviously, the concern here is going to be the thought that Memphis is a much better defensive team and playing at home. 

The Tigers are allowing just 15.8 PPG compared to UNT’s 33 PPG. However, on an “effective” basis, the margin between these teams’ defensive disparity shrinks from 17.2 to 13.3. In fact, when you put the offensive and defensive effective numbers together from a yards-per-play standpoint, it shows that Memphis should only be a -5.1-point favorite here. HC Eric Morris’ UNT offense has played that well thus far. I also see that this line is dumping, down at least 1.5 points since opening, and that 66% of the more sharp handle at DK is on the road dogs. With Memphis on a 4-16 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win, I believe North Texas is the way to go.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s side with North Texas +10.5 at Memphis

Baylor at Texas Tech

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

I know there was some valid concern earlier in the season when Baylor QB DeQuan Finn went down with an injury, but to be honest, the offense has not missed a beat with replacement QB Sawyer Robertson taking the snaps. In fact, he has eight touchdown passes in the last three games and now will have had an extra week of preparation time to help his offense get ready for Texas Tech. Unfortunately, even with those stats, Robertson’s team has lost three straight games. 

The Red Raiders have won four straight and sure look a lot different than the team that showed major concerns in beating FCS foe Abilene Christian by one point and then losing in blowout fashion to Washington State. You could say they are on a roll heading into this rivalry tilt. So I much ask…with the home team 5-1 and scoring nearly 40 PPG, and the road team 2-4 and on a current losing skid, why is this line only 7 points? Well, perhaps oddsmakers know the history of this series, which shows road teams are on a 10-1 ATS run in the Baylor-Texas Tech series. Or perhaps they know the actual effective stats that show TT +19.9 and Baylor +19.9 currently. These teams are closer than it looks, and the rivalry part of the equation figures to make this one tight.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Baylor +7 with an extra week of rest at Texas Tech

Kent State at Bowling Green

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Am I reading this right? Is 83% of the handle at DraftKings backing Kent State in this game at Bowling Green? Is the public really going all-in with the arguably worst team in the country on Saturday? Do they think the Golden Flashes turned a corner last week with their near-impossible backdoor cover against Ball State? Do they not see that KSU still allows 49 PPG, or from an effective standpoint, 44.6 PPG? That last number is the worst in FBS by nearly 6 PPG! 

Well, in any case, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). The truth is that close loss won’t help KSU either, as road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 73-102 ATS (41.7%) since 2011. Let’s not forget they are also 7-20 (25.9%) ATS in the last 27 games as underdogs. I’ll take this chance to fade both the public and the worst team in the country.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Bowling Green -20.5

South Carolina at Oklahoma

Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

I see oddsmakers have hung a very low total on this South Carolina-Oklahoma game, and I’m sure it stems from last week’s Sooners’ offensive struggles against Texas, with freshman QB Michael Hawkins taking the snaps. The memories from the lift Hawkins gave OU in the Tennessee game are long forgotten. Let’s be honest: the struggles last week came against the team I currently have as the best effective defense in the country, allowing less than 5 PPG in that regard. This week’s contest is an entirely different animal. In fact, both of these offenses have demonstrated good capability. 

In terms of effective averages, SC scores 38.6 PPG and OU scores 35.9. Their actual numbers are less because they’ve played terribly tough schedules to date. My projections for total points using my effective formula show 47.8 by scoring, 49.3 by yardage. This total is simply too low, and with the betting public at DK actually coming in hot and heavy on the Over, this system comes into play: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%).

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s look for higher scoring game than 41 points in South Carolina-Oklahoma

Toledo at Northern Illinois

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

A line of -3 for a home team in college football essentially indicates that oddsmakers believe two teams are nearly dead even in strength. That is what we are looking at currently for this big MAC tilt between top conference contenders, Toledo and Northern Illinois. Are these teams even though? Is there any reason to trust the team laying the points in a game like this? 

Last week I loved Northern Illinois at Bowling Green because it was a tendency game for the Huskies, who have been a fantastic underdog and road team in recent years. At home, they haven’t been nearly as effective, as they are just 5-17-2 ATS in their last 24 as hosts. They are also just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 as chalk. This is a complete opposite tendency game from that. In terms of head-to-head history, road teams are on a 10-2 ATS run in the Toledo-Northern Illinois series. And finally, back to the “even strength” point I mentioned before, in my Effective Strength Ratings, Toledo is currently +13.7, NIU is +12. Against similar schedules, the Rockets have proven to be better.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take Toledo +3 points at NIU on Saturday

USC at Maryland

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

USC lost a tough OT decision last week at home to Penn State. Maryland got absolutely clobbered at home by a questionable Northwestern team, 37-10. Talking heads this week have chosen to focus entirely on USC and how they continually underachieve in the Lincoln Riley era. The Trojans played pretty well last week, and actually covered the point spread in that loss. Why isn’t there more of a focus on how terribly the Terps played as these teams get ready to square off? 

This particular system shows how a disparate result like head coach Mike Locksley’s team had last week can affect the next game: Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 133-183-1 ATS (42.1%) over the last decade-plus. In my opinion, that type of loss the Terps just endured can be a season sinker and does nothing to get them ready for a tougher opponent the next week. USC has played a very tough schedule to date and has an effective strength rating of 12.9 PPG better than Maryland. The -7.5 looks touch to touch, but the Trojans are still underpriced, even with the travel circumstances.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 7.5-points with USC on the road

Michigan at Illinois

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Could it be that head coach Bret Bielema’s Illinois team was guilty of looking past Purdue last week to get to this game? As it stands, to me, that 50-49 near-miss upset loss was averted, so chalk it up to a valuable lesson for Bielema to get across to his team. This upcoming week’s game against the defending national champions could arguably be the Illini’s biggest program game in recent memory. From here on out, they have a trip to Oregon next week and then four very winnable games remaining. A victory could have them on the playoff bubble. 

So, with a huge game versus another ranked opponent and the motivation of being at home in front of a hungry fan base, these three systems will be in play: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 180-88 SU and 153-107-8 ATS (58.8%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 105-19 SU and 76-44-4 ATS (63.3%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 54-16 SU and 47-20-3 ATS (70.1%) since 2017. All three favor Illinois, and my Effective Strength Ratings actually show that head coach Bret Bielema’s team should be favored by -0.6.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I got Illinois as a very live +3.5-point home dog here

Wisconsin at Northwestern

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)

It’s amazing to watch how quickly the perceptions of a team can change. A few weeks ago, after a loss at USC in which Wisconsin folded like a tent in the second half, all of the experts were quite pessimistic about the Badgers and what the future held in store. Two dominant wins later, and things are rosy again in Madison. Where is the truth? As always, it’s somewhere in between. 

However, what I like about what we’ve seen from head coach Luke Fickell’s team in their recent wins over Purdue and Rutgers is how they’ve returned to “Badger football” by getting a push from the offensive line and putting up dominant defensive numbers. This has enabled the team to run the ball effectively and occasionally take the top off the defense with a long throw. That, to me, is the winning recipe for this team. As such, they go to Evanston this week feeling good about themselves and looking for payback from an ugly loss a year ago. Wisconsin is 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in revenge mode since 2016. 

Northwestern, meanwhile, comes off an unexpected blowout win at Maryland. However, that game doesn’t bode well for the Wildcats’ chances based upon these two systems: 1) Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against a team, 27-45 ATS (37.5%) since 2010. 2) Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 133-183-1 ATS (42.1%) over the last decade-plus. Motivated and playing well is a good recipe and the Badgers fit that here. The line moving toward them fits the narrative, too.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Wisconsin -7.5 on the road at Northwestern

New Mexico at Utah State

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (TRUTV)

Similarly to the Ball State-Kent State game of a week ago, this contest between New Mexico and Utah State also boasts a road favorite whose defense is porous. Both of these teams are allowing over 42 PPG. I can’t see a position in which you’d want to lay points with either one, much less one as a road favorite. New Mexico has been a questionable favorite as it is, going 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games in that role. The Lobos are also on a brutal run of 18-38 ATS in Mountain West play. Now, most of that happened pre-Bronco Mendenhall, but I’m not sure the defense of this program has ever been this consistently bad, either. 

This will be a revenge game for UNM after losing at home last year 44-41 to the Aggies. Unfortunately, New Mexico is 8-35 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) in revenge mode since 2016. USU is just 1-5 on the season but has shown some tremendous growth offensively after early struggles, scoring 31 PPG in its last three outings. They had a huge offensive outburst versus UNLV last week, setting up this solid angle for Saturday: College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 60-40-2 ATS (60%) in the next game over the last 10 years.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take the +2 points with Utah State

Colorado at Arizona

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The number has come down a lot since it was speculated that Colorado offensive/defensive star Travis Hunter would be likely to go on Saturday, but even still, Colorado seems to have way more going for it at this point than Arizona, and as such, is a live underdog at +3. This underdog status has attracted 87% of the handle at DraftKings, and while I am normally skittish about this type of thing, when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). 

There is no doubt in my mind that the Buffaloes are more together as a unit right now than Arizona. They have won their last four games against the spread and made a serious run at turning back Kansas State last week. Arizona is 1-5 ATS for the season, and the offense behind QB Noah Fifita looks nothing like it did a year ago. The coaching/system change has everything to do with that. That unit is averaging just 18.6 PPG in its L5. You’ll need to put up a whole lot more than that to beat this Colorado team, who scores an effective 41 PPG. My Effective Strength numbers show the wrong team is currently favored by 3 points.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take the +3 with Colorado in Arizona

Georgia at Texas

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

In my opinion, there is only one team right now that has demonstrated that it is playing at an elite level in 2024, and that team is at home this week and playing to a manageable number in a “Game of the Year” type of atmosphere. Obviously I am referring to Texas, who currently has a Power Rating 3 points better than anyone and an Effective Strength Rating 5.7 points better than anyone. What that means is that on a neutral field, the Longhorns should theoretically be a minimum of a 3-point favorite over any team in the country. For this one against Georgia, they are a 4-point favorite at home. 

Let’s face it, if this were not the preseason #1 ranked team playing as the visitor, and we were only looking at how the teams were playing since opening day, Texas would be a bigger favorite. All we can do is go by what we have seen on the field, and to date, head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is the best around. Of course, it never helps to be backed by the trio/sequence of home team systems in ranked games: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 180-88 SU and 153-107-8 ATS (58.8%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 105-19 SU and 76-44-4 ATS (63.3%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 54-16 SU and 47-20-3 ATS (70.1%) since 2017. I can see why some people might back Georgia and the “talent” as an underdog here. I’ll opt for execution.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Texas gets it done as the 4-point favorite

Iowa at Michigan State

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Oddsmakers continue to treat this Iowa team as if it is business as usual, as they have placed the Hawkeyes’ average effective total at 43.3, which is higher than only Kentucky and Michigan in FBS. Essentially, what it means is that they expect only those two teams to play to lower totals than Iowa. This coming despite head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team demonstrating some obvious offensive improvement. In fact, at this point, they are one of 25 teams scoring an effective average of 41 PPG or more, highlighted by the 40 they hung on Washington last week. 

At the same time, Michigan State is effectively scoring 27.5 PPG of its own, and when combined with the defensive allowances of both teams, my effective points formula is calling for 47.6 points here, a full 7 points more than the posted number. That increases to 49.3 if you consider the yards per play of each team. It’s nice to see bettors at DraftKings seeing through the smoke, as 77% of the bets as of press time were on the over on a shrinking total. Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%).

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go with OVER 40.5 in Iowa-Michigan State

For more Week 8 college football analysis, visit the Week 8 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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