Betting Edges for College Football Week 8 & NFL Week 7:
We had yet another good week for the new football strength metric I recently introduced, called the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings. The college football winning streak reached four weeks, and the NFL .500 streak reached three. After last week’s CFB games went 8-6 ATS, we are now at 35-24 ATS in all, good for 59.3%. In the NFL, we’ve gone 3-3 ATS in all three weeks, but with the way things have been going in the NFL, .500 isn’t too bad. Once again, I am continuing the process of calculating the point spread versus rating variances and providing these games for readers on a weekly basis until further notice. This piece covers the Week 8 college and Week 7 NFL betting boards.
Just a quick note on the records from last week. Game #15 on the college board actually fell off the qualifying list once it was announced that ASU QB Sam Leavitt would miss the game at Utah. He is about a 4.5/5-point line mover, and his absence dropped the Sun Devils’ Effective Play-by-Play Rating by that much. For future reference, I do have the recent or obvious injuries accounted for on the Tuesday releases. On late-breaking injury news, please make any adjustments accordingly. For the record, I do have Leavitt out for this week’s #13 game below.
In the NFL, I apologize for the error I made in the “Monday Night Football” game between Buffalo and Atlanta. I had all of the ratings parsed in properly, with the Falcons expected to be a 6.3-point favorite, but I erred in indicating this favored Buffalo. Hopefully you saw through the error and used the rating edge properly.
If you are new to this analysis, I would encourage you to go back and read any of the four earlier articles on the introduction and further details of the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for college and pro football. Those can be found under my author tag. For now, here are the updated top 25 college teams and all pro team current ratings, plus the top variances in terms of my new rating metric against the actual lines for this weekend, CFB Week 8 and NFL Week 7.
College Football Top 25 teams in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. NOTRE DAME: 72.5
2. OHIO STATE: 70.1
3. USC: 70.1
4. INDIANA: 69.7
5. OREGON: 69.5
6. TEXAS A&M: 67.4
7. MICHIGAN: 66
8. TEXAS TECH: 65.7
9. OLD DOMINION: 64.4
10. FLORIDA STATE: 64.2
11. WASHINGTON: 64
12. MIAMI FL: 63.7
13. VANDERBILT: 63.1
14. CINCINNATI: 62.7
15. ALABAMA: 61.8
16. TENNESSEE: 61.3
17. MISSOURI: 60.7
18. ARKANSAS: 60.4
19. OLE MISS: 60.4
20. TEXAS: 60
21. GEORGIA TECH: 59
22. BYU: 58.9
23. CLEMSON: 57.2
24. OKLAHOMA: 57.1
25. NEBRASKA: 57
Interesting here in that Notre Dame maintained its top spot in the ratings but dropped by a couple of points even after a 36-7 victory against NC State. The Irish have a huge game this weekend and are a pretty sizable home favorite against USC, the No. 3-ranked team on the list. The other intriguing thing that happened last week was that Old Dominion’s ranking actually improved after it got crushed by 24 points at Marshall. Why? Well, the Monarchs were great on a play-by-play basis, actually outgaining the Herd by 0.8 YPP, but turned the ball over five times en route to the loss. That is sort of a “weak spot” of this metric, as sometimes turnovers can wind up being the difference in a game, but the formula for determining the rating doesn’t reflect that. The Big Ten continues to hold down the top portion of the top-ranked teams, with four of the top seven from that league. The SEC has the most top 25 teams with nine.
All NFL Teams Ranked in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. LOS ANGELES RAMS: 35.4
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 34.6
3. GREEN BAY PACKERS: 34.1
4. BALTIMORE RAVENS: 30.7
5. ATLANTA FALCONS: 30.3
6. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 28.8
7. DENVER BRONCOS: 28.4
8. DETROIT LIONS: 28
9. HOUSTON TEXANS: 28
10. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 27.4
11. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 27.1
12. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: 27
13. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: 26.6
14. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 26.5
15. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: 26.3
16. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: 22.2
17. BUFFALO BILLS: 22.1
18. CLEVELAND BROWNS: 21.6
19. DALLAS COWBOYS: 21.6
20. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: 21.5
21. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 20.8
22. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: 20.6
23. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 20.4
24. ARIZONA CARDINALS: 20.1
25. NEW YORK JETS: 20
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS: 19.9
27. NEW YORK GIANTS: 19.2
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 18.2
29. CHICAGO BEARS: 17.6
30. MIAMI DOLPHINS: 16.2
31. CINCINNATI BENGALS: 15
32. TENNESSEE TITANS: 13.2
The Rams maintain the top spot after cruising to a 17-3 win at injury-riddled Baltimore. Atlanta moves up into the top 5 after taking care of Buffalo on MNF. This list has a lot of intriguing points to digest, but consider that the records of the teams at the top might not reflect their actual quality. At a glance, the most underrated teams, at least on a play-by-play basis, are the Falcons and Texans. The Ravens are far above what their record indicates, but as long as QB Lamar Jackson remains out, you need to deduct seven points from their rating. The most potentially overrated teams would be Chicago, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 8 college football lines:
Here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences.
1. (335) OLD DOMINION at (336) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON +19
Difference: 21.5, Favors: OLD DOMINION
2. (397) CINCINNATI at (398) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +21.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE +41.8
Difference: 20.3, Favors: CINCINNATI
3. (413) OREGON at (414) RUTGERS
Actual Line: RUTGERS +17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RUTGERS +36.8
Difference: 19.3, Favors: OREGON
4. (329) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (330) MIAMI OHIO
Actual Line: MIAMI OHIO -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIAMI OHIO -27.8
Difference: 14.3, Favors: MIAMI OHIO
5. (303) ARKANSAS STATE at (304) SOUTH ALABAMA
Actual Line: SOUTH ALABAMA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA -19.9
Difference: 12.4, Favors: SOUTH ALABAMA
6. (405) WYOMING at (406) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +8.2
Difference: 12.2, Favors: WYOMING
7. (419) FLORIDA STATE at (420) STANFORD
Actual Line: STANFORD +17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: STANFORD +27.9
Difference: 10.4, Favors: FLORIDA STATE
8. (343) KENT STATE at (344) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO -26.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO -36.7
Difference: 10.2, Favors: TOLEDO
9. (401) UTAH at (402) BYU
Actual Line: BYU +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU -6.2
Difference: 9.7, Favors: BYU
10. (391) OLE MISS at (392) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA +2
Difference: 9.5, Favors: OLE MISS
11. (319) SAN JOSE STATE at (320) UTAH STATE
Actual Line: UTAH STATE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -13
Difference: 9.5, Favors: UTAH STATE
12. (353) TEXAS STATE at (354) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL +11.8
Difference: 9.3, Favors: TEXAS STATE
13. (407) TEXAS TECH at (408) ARIZONA STATE
Actual Line: ARIZONA STATE +11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE +20.3
Difference: 8.8, Favors: TEXAS TECH
14. (389) ARMY at (390) TULANE
Actual Line: TULANE -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TULANE -17.5
Difference: 8, Favors: TULANE
15. (325) COASTAL CAROLINA at (326) APPALACHIAN STATE
Actual Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -18.4
Difference: 7.9, Favors: APPALACHIAN STATE
Comparing the Effective Play-by-Play equivalent ratings to the actual Week 7 NFL lines:
Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences.
1. (461) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at (462) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Actual Line: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA VIKINGS -8.8
Difference: 11.3, Favors: MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2. (451) LOS ANGELES RAMS at (452) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Actual Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +14.9
Difference: 9.9, Favors: LOS ANGELES RAMS
3. (471) GREEN BAY PACKERS at (472) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Actual Line: ARIZONA CARDINALS +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA CARDINALS +14.6
Difference: 8.1, Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS
4. (455) MIAMI DOLPHINS at (456) CLEVELAND BROWNS
Actual Line: CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CLEVELAND BROWNS -8.3
Difference: 5.8, Favors: CLEVELAND BROWNS
5. (477) HOUSTON TEXANS at (478) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Actual Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -8.8
Difference: 5.8, Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
6. (473) ATLANTA FALCONS at (474) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Actual Line: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +3.1
Difference: 5.6, Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS
