Sides are much more popular than totals at the window for bettors any given week. Point spreads are measures of how the market views the difference between the two teams. It is easier for most bettors to form their own measure of difference, and then bet accordingly.

Totals are a different beast.

 

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One of the biggest challenges is projecting the tempo and scoring of any given contest. It is why totals tend to be much sharper markets. This week, the theme of the college football board is those totals.

By my count, 17 contests saw totals move three points or more from the opening number at Circa Sports on Sunday. This week I dive into some of the biggest moves we saw, and try to find a reason why.

College Football Week 8 Odds Report

Oklahoma State Cowboys at BYU Cougars

Open: BYU (-7, 58.5) | Current: BYU (-9, 55.5)

Over the last three games Alan Bowman is the lowest graded Big 12 quarterback by PFF (45.3). He’s completed 51.0% of his passes over that span, thrown four touchdowns to six interceptions and the Cowboys are 0-3 SU and ATS in those contests. This week the market is fading them with the 6-0 SU and ATS Cougars. Those coming in late are buying at the top of the market with BYU, but considering the returns of both programs at this point, there is no reason to try and fade the rise of the Cougars. 

It’s also worth noting the drop in the total here. Circa opened 58.5 and was bet down to 55.5 on Sunday. Neither team has trended in one direction with totals – BYU is 4-2 to the over, Oklahoma State is 3-3 this season – but the Cowboys’ poor offense might be playing a role here. They rank 69th in EPA per rush and 78th in EPA per dropback. The Cougars rank 17th and fourth in those categories respectively on defense.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at UConn Huskies

Open: WF (-4.5, 54.5) | Current: UConn (-2, 58)

It is not often you see moves like this on a side. DraftKings opened UConn as 4.5-point underdogs on Sunday, but the market punched on the Huskies and moved this line 6.5 points within a few hours. UConn is 4-2 ATS this season and has covered by an average of 13.8 points per game. Having said that, it did fail to cover against Temple as 17.5-point favorites the last time we saw the team in action. 

Ultimately, this opening number was just incorrect. The Demon Deacons are 1-4-1 ATS this season. They are 127th in defensive success rate, and rate no higher than 86th in any major defensive statistic this season. There is no metric that would suggest the gap between these two programs is as large as the initial opening line suggests. Bettors should also note that Wake Forest starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier was benched on Saturday. According to head coach Dave Clawson, it was due “partially to injury and partially game decision.”

New Mexico Lobos at Utah State Aggies

Open: NM (PK, 71.5) | Current: NM (-2, 78.5)

Totals are the most volatile when first posted and they can move quickly. Circa Sports – which sets the market on totals for college football each week – opened this game at 71.5 but those that shape the market were quick to the trigger. Within 20 minutes this number was bet up six points and by the end of the day it had reached 80 before buyback settled the market at 78.5 consensus.

New Mexico has been an insane over team to this point of the season. It is 5-1 to the over thus far, and its games have gone over by an average of 20.7 points per game. On Saturday, the market bet the number in the Lobos’ win over Air Force by three points (55.5) and the game went over by 33.5 points. They rank 40th in offensive success rate and 126th in defensive success rate. The Aggies check in at 128th in the same category on defense. Their last three games have seen an average of 83.3 points scored. One could argue this total isn’t high enough.

TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes

Open: UTAH (-7, 46.5) | Current: UTAH (-6.5, 52)

We have another strong move on the total in this Big 12 contest. Circa Sports opened this number at 46.5 and we subsequently saw a 5.5-point move toward the over. Generally, a move like this usually includes two teams that have trended in that direction over the course of the season, but that isn’t the case. TCU is 4-2 to the over and its games have gone over by 8.5 points per game. However, Utah is 1-5 to the over this season and those contests have gone under by 6.3 points per game.

One has to wonder if the Horned Frogs’ defense will raise the floor of this offense for the Utes. TCU ranks 94th in defensive success rate, 96th in opponent EPA per dropback and 97th in opponent EPA per rush. Utah has been an extremely below average offensive team. It comes into this game 76th in offensive success rate. After this article was posted it was announced that Cam Rising would be out indefinitely. The number has since dropped to -4 across the board, and the total is now 49 at most shops. Isaac Wilson will start in his place. Is the difference between Wilson and an injured Rising really three full points?

Ball State Cardinals at Vanderbilt Commodores

Open: VAN (-24.5, 53.5) | Current: VAN (-26.5, 58.5)

The entire college football world expected a massive letdown for the Commodores after an upset win over Alabama. Instead, Vanderbilt shocked the world once again. It went on the road as 12.5-point underdogs and beat Kentucky outright to improve to 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS. It’s no wonder that the market showed the Commodores some love on the side here and bumped this line up two points against the Cardinals. Ball State let Kent State in the side door on Saturday after it allowed a late touchdown, which dropped it to 3-3 ATS on the season.

Yet again we have another strong move on the total for this contest. Circa Sports opened this at 53.5 on Sunday and the market pushed it up five points to 58.5 which is the consensus number as of Monday morning. These are two of the best over teams in the country. Every Ball State game has gone over the total (6-0) and by an average of 18.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is 5-1 to the over with a +9.3 differential. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Indiana Hoosiers

Open: IU (-4, 53.5) | Current: IU (-6, 50)

This total dropped 3.5 points from the opening number on Sunday. These are two of the best defenses in the country. Indiana ranks 16th in opponent yards per play (4.6) and 31st in defensive success rate. Nebraska is sixth in yards per play allowed (4.2) and 24th in defensive success rate. The Cornhuskers and Hoosiers are two of the top teams in the country in time of possession as well. With two teams that play at a slow tempo and are great defensively on the field, it is no wonder the market thought 53.5 was too high.

Interestingly, this line has moved toward Indiana. Yes, the Hoosiers are one of the best cover teams in the nation at 5-1 ATS with a +12.3 spread differential. But, Nebraska is 4-1-1 ATS itself. This line was also part of the lookahead lines DraftKings posted last week. The line bumped up from -3.5 to -4 but no real adjustment came until Sunday, despite neither team playing last week.  

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