East Carolina vs. Memphis
The Week 8 Thirsty Thursday slate is three short of a six-pack, but it does feature three different conferences as we get closer to another jampacked CFB Saturday. James Madison vs. App State, East Carolina vs. Memphis, and Liberty vs. Kennesaw State are the three games, as every one of them has a similar spread, though Memphis is a home favorite of 10, while the other two games feature road chalk of 10 or 10.5.
Even though the Tigers played themselves out of the College Football Playoff picture last week against Tulane, East Carolina vs. Memphis is still the spotlight game of the night, with some follow-up thoughts on J-Mad and Appy and the Lib and Kenny after that. That’s what everybody calls those teams, right?
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 20, 9:50 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 8 College Football Picks and Predictions.
East Carolina vs. Memphis (-10, 54.5) Prediction
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Pick: Under 54.5
It seems a little bit harsh to say that a 3-3 record for ECU and a 5-2 record for Memphis are disappointing at this stage of the game, but they really are. Memphis surely expected to be in the running for that Group of Six CFP berth and the Pirates would tell you that they should be 5-1, with a loss to Alabama as the only blemish. Instead, East Carolina has a home loss to an App State team that has not played well since and last week’s loss to UAB.
What we are seeing with ECU is how much losing players to the transfer portal can hurt. Even though RB TJ Engleman Jr. has racked up 6.9 yards per carry and the ground game is actually a little more productive than last season, the passing game has tumbled downhill like a bloke chasing a wheel of cheese in Gloucestershire. Katin Houser had a 19/6 TD/INT ratio and took just 13 sacks while completing 65.9% of his passes with 8.1 yards per attempt. He transferred to Illinois and seemingly took most of the aerial attack with him.
Even though the Pirates brought in Emory Williams and Mitch Griffis, they only have an 11/4 TD/INT ratio collectively with just 6.3 yards per attempt and have taken 12 sacks already. WR Anthony Smith didn’t transfer out, as he went to the NFL, but he caught over 1,000 yards worth of balls and he is sorely missed as well.
Head coach Blake Harrell still has a productive defense, as ECU is 23rd in yards per play allowed with just 4.65, an improvement even on last year’s strong unit that was 36th with 5.13 YPP. They even have 18 sacks in six games and are tied for 14th in sacks per game. Last year’s team, though, was +14 in TO margin, including 24 takeaways. This year’s defense only has eight takeaways and the team is -2 in total.
Speaking of turnovers, those absolutely killed Memphis in last week’s loss to Tulane. The Green Wave had six takeaways, including a pick-six right before halftime. Memphis got a really admirable effort from the defense to hold Tulane’s offense to just 24 points and 325 yards despite favorable field position and all those turnovers. Memphis had 488 mostly empty yards on offense, scoring only 17 points because of all the giveaways, including five by QB Marcus Stokes.
Tulane had seven sacks and nine tackles for loss in the game, which had to excite Harrell as he watched the tape. He probably wasn’t as excited watching Memphis hold Tulane’s passers to 12-of-22 for 175 yards, but he has to feel like his defense can give him a chance in this one. While the Green Wave didn’t throw the ball well, they did run for 150 yards, albeit on 38 carries.
East Carolina vs. Memphis Prediction
The Memphis defense has gotten much better of late. After allowing more than 6.5 YPP over their first four games, they’ve only allowed 4.94 YPP in the three conference games this month. With 18 sacks and 18 pass breakups, the Pirates defense continues to play at a high level, which will either propel Harrell to a better job or a P4 defensive coordinator gig after the season. But, the ECU offense is really lacking and I don’t see them finding a ton of success here.
Pick: Under 54.5
Other Thursday Games
James Madison (-10.5, 56.5) at App State: This 7 p.m. ET kick in Boone should provide some stunning pregame drone shots with the fall foliage in full force around Kidd Brewer Stadium. That might be the prettiest thing we see during the game, as James Madison is 7-0 and App State is 4-2, but I cannot get the 10-3 loss to a bad Old Dominion team out of my head. The Mountaineers did bounce back to beat Coastal Carolina on the road 35-32, as Henry Hasselbeck (yes, Matt’s kid) had 125 yards on 21 carries. App State played both QBs in that game.
They probably will again here against the Dukes, who just thumped a vastly-improved Georgia State team. This line seems about right here. The weather was awful for that ODU game and App State has moved the ball pretty well otherwise, so a lean towards the Over, but no official play on side or total.
Liberty (-10, 50) at Kennesaw State: The last time Liberty went to Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium, Kennesaw State was in Year 1 as a FBS program and was struggling through a miserable 0-6 season, including a loss to FCS UT Martin. All the Owls did was end Liberty’s 17-game winning streak by picking up the outright victory as a 27.5-point underdog.
I don’t foresee the upset here, as Jamey Chadwell brings a rested and rolling team that comes off the bye with five straight wins in tow. Kennesaw State has dropped five in a row, but the last three by just seven points. Perhaps the Owls can keep it close, but after surviving a scare against Gardner-Webb with a one-point win, Liberty has won by 36, 17, 16, and 32 points.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.
