Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, October 22 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: American Pearl (7th Race)
Seventh Race
1. American Pearl
2. Newtown Pike
3. Atropa
AMERICAN PEARL showed ability in all three of her races, and guess she was about to be stretched out after each of her last two starts before things went a little awry the first time, then very much so after her most recent start in January. Put those races together with two recent workout videos, and think we have something. Really excellent works, and I think she’s fit enough to set a good pace from the rail and keep going. NEWTOWN PIKE was second to no less than Counting Stars – who sits at the top of her division going into a winter break – in an OP comeback run she needed, then a closer second to another M Casse-trained filly, Search Party, who at least was in good form at the time. Pre-start gate breakthrough surely cost her about everything when last seen in the FG Oaks. She never worked back from the race – not until August, at least, and has since kept to a strong pattern. Wide draw no bargain but price should be right. Not sure how good ATROPA really was when she went out of action, as the stakes races in which she ran have not come back especially strong. Limited workout video, but the small section of the one breeze we can see looked pretty good.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Keen Gal
2. Ashes and Diamonds
3. Revel Toast
KEEN GAL got hooked and cooked going a one-turn CD mile last out, but in her first start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer J Sharp, who moves her up $10K to a $30K conditioned claimer, I don’t expect her to get cooked. 10-pound bug might only need to point and steer this horse. ASHES AND DIAMONDS ran back on short rest while down to lowest level on Sept. 26 – she was ready to win, the bettors were ready to wager, and owner-trainer S. Asmussen was ready to claim. Should be able to maintain that steady run another half-furlong plus while keeping her face clean on the outside. REVEL TOAST meanwhile is buried down at the fence and might struggle to find a way off it.
Second Race
1. With You
2. Big Star Bound
3. Borax
First-timer WITH YOU has a few work videos up – he looks fast. Sept. 9 drill with She’s Toasty, who crushed restricted MSWS in her debut at the CD meet. Got outworked a little there, but not so much, and came back with a relatively eye-catching drill Sept. 30. Outside draw should suit the style I expect to see from him. BIG STAR BOUND shows no works at all since Sept. 19, which is a little hard to believe, and was surprised not to find any work video up for KEE-based first-timer. Trainer W Ward has been sending darts all meet long. Can only guess this might be another. BORAX’s second-start improvement last out might not be enough to win this race, and not sure he can do much better right now.
Third Race
1. My King Air
2. Get Them Roses
3. Obra Prima
The sire King Zachary has gotten only a handful of runners, and none has run with any great distinction. The horse himself? His final start came in Aug. 2019, and in it he won the Birdstone, a 1 3/4-mile race, by 8 1/2 lengths. So when I express confidence that MY KING AIR, a Texas-bred son of King Zachary, is going to exceed his contending sprint form in this 1 1/8-mile race, that’s a big part of it. Blinkers did seem to help, and since they waived the claim price in the comeback run, one might guess that second-start running long – be it with maidens or in an N2L – stood as some sort of goal. GET THEM ROSES didn’t have much of a finish early in the meet, but probably benefits from that start fitness-wise, and ran into a heavy favorite who made short work of those $50K maidens. OBRA PRIMA not bat at all, trying his first dirt route in his second career race, first start for new connections, and first back from a long layoff. Not hard to see him improving into contention at a fair price.
Fourth Race
1. Gut Reaction
2. Golden Reserve
3. Cicero Ave
Was surprised that GUT REACTION got bet as much as he did and ran as well as he did last out, going a one-turn mile trip that I thought would prove too sharp for him. He’s a big, big boy with a route stride, but had plenty of speed to keep up in the one-turn contest. That’ll get him over and into a decent position before the first turn as he stretches out to the two-turn route he almost certainly wants. Second-time starter GOLDEN RESERVE and two others come out of the same CD sprint. Golden Reserve got too far back in the early stages, finished with some interest, and if you watch all the way to the end of the replay, eventually gallops out in front. Stretchout should suit him as well as CICERO AVE, bred for two turns and a horse who had the look of a router in a solid sprint debut.
Fifth Race
1. Unwavering Monarch
2. Cliffs
3. Night of Rose
The course had a lot of give to it last racing week, and with limited daylight, it doesn’t dry a lot this time of year. UNWAVERING MONARCH has only raced on ground with give during her four-start career, three races in France, then a Laurel race Sept. 20, her American debut, that caught the eye. Pace was decent there in the early stages but slowed to a crawl as the field stacked up going down the backside. Unwavering Monarch was forced to start her move while wide and forced to sustain that move for more than three furlongs, which she did, getting up to win by three-quarters, but looking a more superior horse than the bare margin. 4yo with four races who ran like that in American debut and ought to be all right on a tricky course — and at a price? Sign me up. CLIFFS I wonder about on a yielding or “good” course – that’s more of a concern than the layoff, really. Taken here as much as anything because she ran all right debuting on dirt, and might wind up a good fit should the race wind up on the main track. NIGHT OF ROSE didn’t appear to enjoy the Kentucky Downs experience last out, but two back ran competitively in a CNL race exceptionally strong for the class level/venue, and she nearly won a race much like this one, making her N American debut at the KEE spring meet.
Sixth Race
1. Circe
2. Diva Warrior
3. Getaway Girl
CIRCE has put together a string of works that look good on paper – and, those that we can see, even better on video. Fog drill but Oct. 15 appeared to very much be holding her own with the colt Majestic Valor. This looks like a tiny-scale reverse repeat of the 2024 Oaks and Derby, both won by Ken McPeek, who trains Circe and Majestic Valor, the colt set to debut (same jockey) on Wednesday’s card. DIVA WARRIOR 100% looked in her sprint debut like a filly who needed two turns to get to her best. Two recent workouts inside 3yo filly Top Selection, an also-ran in her lone start – solid, not spectacular, but still expect improvement. GETAWAY GIRL had only just found her best stride past the eighth pole when she flopped back over to the “wrong” lead and lost some momentum chasing the winner home in a sprint. Strong chance she comes forward here in a route.
Eighth Race
1. Chuck Tower
2. Script
3. Golden Afternoon
Other than the dud June 6 in the Jaipur, CLOCK TOWER has maintained strong form all year – and just the fact that Ward ran him in the Jaipur demonstrates that the horse has been doing well for months. Won a G3 around two turns as a 2yo, but that was a red herring. Missed most of 2025, and it was only with the cut-back to a sprint in May 2025 that the horse found his calling. He followed up on that encouraging performance with … an 11-month layoff. Liked his race at SAR, really liked his win at KD, like the look of recent work video, and like Clock Tower to win another here. SCRIPT wheels back on short rest, but I really doubt that’s an impediment. Got back to his best for the first time in a year – and probably no coincidence that happened on the KEE course. GOLDEN AFTERNOON now has two good races at KD, and I wonder if he quite gets to that level on a more conventional course like KEE’s.
Ninth Race
1. Treat Me Nice
2. She’s Good Trouble
3. Kihei Kiana
Was quite high on TREAT ME NICE going into her career debut – and was quite mistaken! Or was I? Best parts of all her breezes, going back to it, are the final stages, and maybe she was just hapless sprinting. The poor outside draw should be somewhat mitigated by a fair price – maybe. SHE’S GOOD TROUBLE just seemed to get tired late debuting in a CD one-turn mile, where she chased a strong pace while losing ground on the bend. Would also expect to see more from this horse second time out / stretched to two turns. KIHEI KIANA finished in front of She’s Good Trouble last time but did so with a two-start seasoning advantage and a mild rally in a fast-early, slow-late race. More credit to the first-timer, SG Trouble, who made a middle move and then flamed out, though this filly also could do better with a second turn.
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