South Alabama vs. Marshall
Week 8 of the college football season gets underway on Tuesday, as 61 straight days of NFL/CFB action continues with two games from Conference USA and one from the Sun Belt. South Alabama vs. Marshall is the late kick at 7:30 p.m. ET, with Middle Tennessee vs. FIU and Missouri State vs. Delaware going at 7 p.m. The Fun Belt game also has the only road favorite of the evening, as Delaware, even with some huge injury questions at the QB position, is a field-goal favorite and FIU is laying double digits.
I’ve got some thoughts on all three games, but the Sun Belt game draws the premier spot on ESPN2 of this trio, so we’ll start there and then head to Miami and Newark.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 19, 7:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 8 College Football Picks and Predictions.
South Alabama (-3, 64.5) vs. Marshall Prediction
Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Pick: South Alabama -3
It will be a perfect fall night for football in Huntington, WV, as the Jaguars head north to take on the Thundering Herd. South Alabama is off to a 2-0 start in conference play, but beating UL Monroe is almost a guarantee at this point and Arkansas State has a bottom-25 defense by yards per play allowed. Two defenses worse than the Red Wolves, though, are these two.
The Jaguars have allowed an astonishing 7.27 yards per play this year. The only defense to do worse is Colorado State and their defensive coordinator was fired in the first quarter of a game a few weeks ago. Major Applewhite’s defense has been really awful, a shocking development because veteran DC Todd Orlando was brought in to try and improve upon last season’s poor numbers. So far, it hasn’t worked, as the Jags have even allowed over 6.9 yards per play to ULM and Arky State.
While USA’s defense is 137th in the nation in YPP against, Marshall sits 133rd, so they’ve had plenty of issues of their own. They’ve given up nearly 6.8 YPP to opponents and have only played against one FBS team with a winning record, so the strength of schedule has been quite weak, as Jeff Sagarin ranks Marshall’s SOS 118th out of 266 Division I teams. South Alabama sits 103rd in that department.
At least Applewhite and his offense have taken advantage of the weak Sun Belt slate to this point, racking up better than 7.5 yards per play and 108 points. The Herd have not been nearly as potent on offense, but they’ve also played conference top dog James Madison and Coastal Carolina. Marshall outgained the Chanticleers by nearly 200 yards last time out but lost 27-21 because of six turnovers and two more turnovers on downs. Zion Turner came in to relieve Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who threw three interceptions on just six pass attempts.
In his postgame, head coach Tony Gibson was very direct about how poorly his starting QB played and said he’d be willing to use running QB Khalil Wilkins and longtime college QB Zion Turner both if that’s what it took to move the football. So, we’ll have to see who gets the starting reps here.
There is no QB controversy for the Jags, as Jared Hollins has continued starting, even with the return of Bishop Davenport, who was hurt earlier this season. Hollins has a 7/2 TD/INT ratio over 92 pass attempts. He only threw 10 times in the win over Arkansas State, as the Red Wolves couldn’t stop the ground game. South Alabama ran for 296 yards and had 50 carries. The Jags get another awful run defense here.
South Alabama vs. Marshall Prediction
Marshall stumbled to a 28-26 win over a bad Middle Tennessee team earlier this season and then beat Gardner-Webb by a point two weeks later in a game where Del Rio-Wilson needed to throw for 413 yards. Both defenses are really poor, but South Alabama has the better offense and the much stronger rushing attack, capable of exploiting how bad the Herd truly are. I’m not sure that Marshall’s offense can have the same success, even against a low-quality opponent.
Pick: South Alabama -3
Other Tuesday Games
Middle Tennessee vs. FIU (-10, 46.5): The Panthers are undefeated at Pitbull Stadium this season and should remain that way. The Blue Raiders did knock off Delaware last week to improve to 1-1 in C-USA play, as they took advantage of some extra prep time after getting crushed by Kansas. I don’t have a bet here as FIU QB JJ Kohl went into last week’s game with a negative TD/INT ratio and you can’t turn the ball over and expect to win by margin. Kohl is now even on the season at 7/7, but FIU is also running for just 3.4 yards per carry and that also makes it tough to cover numbers.
Missouri State vs. Delaware (-3, 52): The Blue Hens got a big effort from Tyler Bell last week in place of injured veteran QB Nick Minicucci, but it wasn’t enough in the 33-30 loss. Over the weekend, head coach Ryan Carty said that Minicucci was “week to week”, so it seems unlikely that he’ll play here. The Bears have had their own QB issues, as neither Skyler Locklear nor Henry Belin IV have taken the job and run with it. Belin did throw for 300 yards in the win over Kennesaw State, but the Bears still only scored 24 points. No bet from me in this one.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.
