College Football Week 8 Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

We went 3-1 on our four CFB article bets last week, with UCLA, USC and Toledo/Buffalo all cashing their respective tickets for us, and the only thing that prevented a 4-0 sweep was a meaningless, final-minute touchdown by Miami (OH) to send the total over the number. Nonetheless, it was a good week and I’m already excited to implement more of my analytical findings this week. Here’s what my T Shoe Index is really liking so far this week as early Week 8 college football best bets:

 

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Troy (+11; 56.5) vs South Alabama

Both of these teams have had relatively disappointing seasons compared to the levels of success they reached with their former coaches, as both teams are in the bottom half of my Sun Belt power ratings so far this season. South Alabama has shown the ability to score in bunches but also allow them in bunches, while Troy has been a little more stable but still not very good. TSI only projects South Alabama as a two-point favorite here, so there’s a ton of value on the Trojans on the number.  This matchup pits the #93 offense of South Alabama against the #82 defense of Troy (advantage: Troy), and on the flip side, we’ve got the #97 offense of Troy vs the #115 defense of South Alabama (advantage: Troy). I think Troy should be able to comfortably keep this within the number and will have a chance to win the game outright.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Troy +11 (Play to +10)

Iowa (-6.5; 41.5) vs. Michigan State

I’ll be honest; I thought Washington would be able to play with Iowa last week. I was terribly wrong to underestimate the Hawkeyes, as they rolled Washington with ease, just a week after getting bottled up by the Ohio State defense we just saw get shredded by Oregon. I will not underestimate the Hawkeyes again against non-Buckeyes, and a turnover-prone Michigan State team seems like just the team to back the Hawkeyes against. Sure, I think Kaleb Johnson will get his in the run game, but I think the Iowa defense is going to have young QB Aidan Chiles in hell for 60 minutes. Chiles has a propensity to turn the ball over, particularly in the red zone, and if he does that even once against this Iowa defense, I don’t see how Michigan State will score enough to contend with this suddenly-explosive Iowa offense. TSI projects Iowa -8.5, and I definitely think this line will close above 7, so let’s grab 6.5 now – there’s actually a couple of stray 6s on the board at the time of writing this.

College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Iowa -6.5 (Play to -7)

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