Week 9 college football best bets
How in the world are we already two-thirds of the way through the college football season? The offseason crawls by and then the season comes and goes in the blink of an eye. After a 1-2 best bets week last week, I’m ready to put that behind us and get back on track, as we’re still 6-3 the last three weeks. I thought coming into this week that it would become harder to find value in my numbers, as we now have adequate data on each team so I would assume my ratings and oddsmakers’ would start to sync up a little more than they have thus far; turns out, TSI is still indicating there’s value on quite a bit this week, so let’s get into what I like best from the model this week.
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North Texas vs Memphis (-7.5), O/U 69
For what it’s worth, when a college football total has been 67 or higher this season, the under is 15-6-1 (71%). I’d never encourage you to blindly play something, but TSI projects this game with just 62.5 total points, so we’re getting a touchdown of value on the total here. In general, I especially like high total unders on games involving Group of Five teams, as these totals require a level of offensive efficiency from both teams that is difficult to achieve at that level. When accounting for just games involving sub-power 5 (G5 and FCS) teams, the under is 11-3 (79%) this season. As for this matchup, Memphis – generally known for its offense – is No. 8 in my Group of Five defensive ratings, which should provide enough resistance to slow the No. 7 G5 offense in North Texas to keep this total under the number.
Pick: Under 69 (Play to 68)
Kansas vs Oklahoma (-10), O/U 65
Death. Taxes. TSI picking Oklahoma. The Sooners, who have spent much of the season as my No. 1 power rated team, have been underrated by the market frequently this year. Last week, they escaped with a two-point win against UCF, which I think creates some value this week in a buy-low spot on a team that hasn’t had much adversity this week. I was disappointed in their effort coming out of the off week, but I would be very surprised if Brent Venables’ team is flat two weeks in a row, and this Kansas defense is the perfect get-right unit to play against. Oklahoma, still with the No.2 offensive rating, will face a Kansas defensive unit ranked No. 93; on the other side of the ball, the 24th-ranked Kansas offense will be challenged by the No. 8 ranked defensive unit of the Sooners. I could be talked into an OU team total over here, but I’m going to lay the 10 in what I think is a good spot for Oklahoma.
Pick: Oklahoma -10 (Play to -12)
Boise State (-5) vs Wyoming, O/U 49.5
Surprisingly, I’m not playing the total here, despite TSI indicating value on yet another Wyoming over, so if you want additional action, I’d strongly lean that way. Instead, I’m going to take the points with the road dog in the Pokes here. Boise State has kind of been a roller coaster this season, while I feel like I know what I’m getting with Wyoming, who hasn’t posted a negative game grade since the Texas game in Week 3. Boise State, on the other hand, has posted negative game grades in half of their games this season. So how does that translate to a projection? TSI projects Wyoming as a half point road favorite here, as the No. 10 G5 defense (Wyoming) takes on the No. 20 offense in Boise State; on the other side of the ball, Wyoming is No. 27 on offense in the G5, while the Broncos are No. 30 on defense.
Pick: Wyoming +5 (play to +4)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
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