College Football Week 9 Best Bets and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Another solid showing in Week 8 on my best bets, as I was 11-8 ATS, for what was the biggest set of games I’ve offered thus far. The only unfortunate thing from last week is that I lost on three of the higher-profile games I offered, with Alabama, Louisville, and Texas all failing to live up to my expectations. We now wrap up the month of October, and I carry a 73-57-2 ATS record, which is good for 56.2%. I’ll try to keep the train rolling as I have these following plays after pouring through the Week 9 VSiN College Football Analytics Report:

 

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Georgia Southern at Old Dominion

Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Georgia Southern comes off a very underrated and underappreciated upset win last week at home against James Madison, holding the explosive Dukes to just 14 points in a 14-point win. It was actually a reverse cover, as GSU was +10 in the game. This week, head coach Clay Helton’s team hits the road for a Thursday night tilt at Old Dominion, a team that seems to be playing to its tendencies once again in 2024.

For the last few seasons, I’ve made it a point of repeatedly discussing how good the Monarchs are in the road or underdog role, and how poorly they perform when favored or at home. In fact, they are 4-2 ATS as dogs this season, 0-1 ATS as chalk. Their home favorite losing skid has reached five games ATS. They are just 8-19 ATS overall as hosts dating back to 2019. 

GSU has the make of a good road underdog in that it has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this season. The Eagles’ two losses were to Boise State and Ole Miss, which is nothing to be ashamed of. They are also being backed with 54% of the handle and bets as of Wednesday at DraftKings, a good thing since when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons. This majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go with Georgia Southern as the 2-point Thursday night dog

Boise State at UNLV

Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

Money has come in all over Boise State this week at DraftKings, with around 90% of the handle and bets on that side of the ledger. Do they know something? Or are they just assuming that because the Broncos probably need to win out to cement their CFP spot, they automatically will? I think it’s a little of the latter, and it’s not good, as going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. 

My Effective Strength numbers show that Boise State is at +28.8, UNLV is at 27.5, and both teams have played respectable schedules to this point. My Power Ratings say the number should be BSU -1.8. From a trend perspective, UNLV is on a 16-5 (76.2%) ATS run following a SU win. Both teams are playing well. I don’t think I’d want to lay points on the road in this type of matchup.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go with UNLV as the +3 underdog

Florida State at Miami (FL)

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

I’ve seen some of the arguments on both sides of the coin for this ACC matchup between Florida State and Miami. Sure, the Seminoles might be motivated to ruin the Hurricanes’ undefeated season. But do they have the will? Or the capability, for that matter? This was once deemed to be perhaps the game of the year in the ACC. That is certainly no longer the case, and if you ask me, just like I indicated last week with Duke vs. FSU, I believe Miami will relish the chance to put another stake in the coffin that is the FSU season. 

After last week’s loss to the Blue Devils, Florida State is now 10-20 ATS in road games since 2019 and 10-20 ATS in ACC play since 2021. Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances. There is a reason Miami is favored by 3 TDs here and why my effective strength numbers say it could be as high as -27. There is also a touch of revenge to this game as the Hurricanes look for payback from last year’s 27-20 loss at Tallahassee. This system is in play: College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 95-15 SU and 74-31-5 ATS (70.5%) since 2016.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Miami is on a roll offensively, and I like them to cover the -21

BYU at UCF

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

I can’t figure out why UCF is favored in this game. Perhaps a few weeks ago, before the Knights went on what is currently a four-game losing skid, I could, but not now. They literally have zero momentum, and they are coming off a devastating self-induced loss at Iowa State, which should have been a season-turning upset. Now, they host a team playing as well as any in the Big 12. I’m not surprised to see 74% of the handle and 91% of the bets in on the underdog Cougars. 

Remember, when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). It is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024. This is also worthy of a money line bet too, as since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a majority number of money line bets on a road underdog of +3 points or fewer, bettors are 12-8 SU (60%) for +6.04 units of profit and an ROI of 30.2%. Besides the polar opposite mindsets these teams have to be playing with now, UCF is on a 1-11 ATS skid in conference games when coming off a close of 7 points or less, and UCF has lost its last nine games ATS as a favorite in conference play.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll go with BYU +2 with a little ML action to stay undefeated as well

Eastern Michigan at Akron

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

This is another game in which I stared at the line, wondering what the deal was. Why is EMU only a 3-point road favorite at Akron? In college football, I love betting on momentum as I believe college athletes’ mindsets are shaped by their success or lack thereof. The Eagles came off a huge come-from-behind win against Central Michigan, which kept them in the hunt for the MAC title. QB Cole Snyder had a huge game, throwing for 300 yards and getting the TD sneak on a last-minute fourth-and-goal play. 

Besides EMU’s 39-15 ATS mark in road/neutral games since 2016, I truly believe they are two tiers better of a team than Akron. The Eagles’ effective strength rating right now is +3.2, and their record is 5-2. The Zips are 1-6 with an ESR of -8.5. In other words, EMU is 11.7 points better. Not to mention that Akron is on a 4-15 ATS skid in MAC play when coming off a road loss, as well as 13-29-1 (31%) ATS at Home since 2016. Eastern Michigan has won in head-to-head play in four straight seasons and is on a 5-0-1 ATS run at Akron. Let’s not overthink this.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Eastern Michigan -3 on the road

Northern Illinois at Ball State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

I love it when team tendencies seem to continue year after year. Not only does it make my trend data look even better, but it tends to grow my bankroll as well. Northern Illinois is a team that is falling into its usual patterns once again, tough to back at home, particularly when favored, but a reliable cover on the road. So far in 2024, the Huskies are 3-0 ATS away from home. For this week, I’m not thrilled that they are double-digit favorites, but I do think they are the far better team, and a get-right win is just what is needed. 

My Effective Strength number shows that NIU should be laying 17 here. There are also two nice revenge angles in play after BSU somehow won 20-17 in Dekalb last year. 1) Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-37 ATS (58%) since 2016. 2) Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 214-166 ATS (56.3%) since 2016.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’m comfortable laying the 12.5-points with Northern Illinois

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

12:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)

With everything that has gone on so far in 2024, is there really a double-digit difference between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech? Sure, Yellow Jackets’ QB Haynes King missed last week against Notre Dame and is questionable for Saturday, but even still, replacement Zach Pyron looked pretty good against a much better Notre Dame defense. I can see why 62% of the betting public at DK is on the GT side, though, and when the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024.

The Hokies come off strong back-to-back wins, but let’s be honest: the BC game score of 42-21 was quite misleading, as Tech gave up all of a 21-0 early lead and benefitted late from turnovers. Anyway, Virginia Tech is 6-20 (23.1%) ATS in the last 26 games following up a SU win. This head-to-head series has virtually seen no home-field advantage, as road teams are on a 14-2 ATS surge in the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC series. Also, keep in mind that GT is on an 8-4 ATS surge as double-digit dogs for head coach Brent Key, with four outright wins.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Georgia Tech +10 in Blacksburg 

Buffalo at Ohio

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

I like to look for good signs of growth from teams in backing them as underdogs, and I see that from Buffalo in 2024. Coming off a 3-9 season, it appeared that new head coach Pete Lembo had a huge job to do, but it seems that the transition is happening a lot sooner than anyone envisioned. In fact, his offense has turned a corner. After scoring just 16.8 PPG in non-conference action, the Bulls have hit the ground running in MAC play by putting up 31.3 PPG in their first three. 

They come off a disappointing but valiant 48-41 loss to Western Michigan, but it sets them up in a nice system spot for Saturday: College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 60-41-2 ATS (59.4%) over the last 10 years. They are also on a nice surge of 18-9 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since 2016 after losing 20-10 in head-to-head play last year. 

That said, Ohio U is also scoring well of late, averaging 25.7 PPG in the last three weeks of conference action. And with 79% of the bets early in on the Over in this game, this system will apply: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I like both Buffalo +6 and Over 44.5 in this MAC tilt

Georgia State at Appalachian State

Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

When a team has been at or around the top of a conference for a long time and suddenly falters, the mindset is different. Appalachian State is down, there is no doubt about it, but even still, oddsmakers are going off of the past in establishing them as 7-point home favorites over a Georgia State team that shares the same 2-4 mark as them. The Panthers’ record isn’t anywhere near as mind-altering, as they weren’t picked to win the Sun Belt this season like ASU was. What have the Mountaineers done this season to command a line of a TD favorite? 

Well, let’s see, they have allowed 48 points or more on three occasions already and 44.7 PPG in their last three overall. That fits perfectly into a nice revenge angle that will be benefitting GSU on Saturday: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 214-166 ATS (56.3%) since 2016. Head coach Dell McGee’s program has also been a reliable road team in recent years, going 19-8 (70.4%) ATS in the last 27 Road/Neutral games. They are off a tough loss at Marshall in which they could have won and should have covered. I expect them to remain competitive.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Georgia State +7 at Appalachian State

SMU at Duke

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)

SMU & Duke share 6-1 records, but it seems that the Mustangs’ wins have been far more splashy, earning them the 12-point road favorite line in Durham for Saturday. As always, the high-scoring road favorite has gained the attention of bettors at DraftKings, with 81% of the handle going in SMU’s direction as of this writing. That said, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). To me, sometimes wins are wins, and it doesn’t always matter how a team gets to 6-1; it’s just that they do. 

Take Duke’s victory last week over FSU. The Blue Devils struggled offensively, but they also overcame what was a 22-game losing skid to the Seminoles. It could prove to be an even bigger moment than just getting that win, as over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 76-45 ATS (62.8%) in the follow-up contest. This is going to be a tough environment, and Duke seems hungry and under the radar. I have a hard time seeing this as an easy win for SMU.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Duke +12 at home

Notre Dame at Navy

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)

It’s been a fun season so far in watching the service academies thrive, well, other than Air Force I guess. Army is 7-0, Navy is 6-0, and they seem destined to battle for the American Conference title. However, looking below the surface, is Navy really good enough to be commanding this much line respect against Notre Dame? Yes, I know they are a double-digit underdog at +13, but to me, this is clearly two different-level teams going at it. Notre Dame is a top 10 team in nearly every metric I have, and since its loss to Northern Illinois in Game 2, has responded very well by winning five in a row outright and three straight ATS. Defensively, the Irish are sixth in effective points allowed and fifth in effective yards per play allowed. Just on defensive numbers alone, they are 15 points better effectively than the Midshipmen. 

Navy hasn’t seen anything close to what head coach Marcus Freeman’s team will bring defensively on Saturday. I’m not sure why 80% of the handle at DK is on the underdogs here? In any case, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. Even looking back at recent action in this head-to-head series, it is advantage Irish, as they have won four of the last five games by at least 22. Despite the record, Navy hasn’t gained that much on Notre Dame to get this line.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll take Notre Dame as an underpriced 13-point favorite

Michigan State at Michigan

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

Here’s another series where I question whether or not the oddsmakers are giving too much credit to the underdog. Yes, Michigan is not the back-to-back CFP team that it has been recently under former head coach Jim Harbaugh. That said, have the Spartans gained so much ground this season that they would go from 21.5- to 25.5-point underdogs in the last two meetings to just +3 now? Not to mention, the combined score of those two games is an ugly 78-7. 

The Wolverines are still very good defensively, and playing at Ann Arbor is still no picnic. Just ask USC. They haven’t been a favorite this small, hosting the Spartans since 2008. Talk about a motivator for “Big Brother.” MSU comes off a win at home against Iowa in which it was a 7-point underdog. It feels like oddsmakers are overreacting here. Let’s not forget Michigan was ranked as recently as last week. Plus, Michigan State is on a 1-13 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s lay the short number (-3.5) with Michigan at home

LA Monroe at South Alabama

Saturday, 5:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

There is an opposite side of when a team used to winning falters in any given season and the mindset drop is worrisome. The opposite occurs when a team that has been down for a long time suddenly springs up and becomes competitive and a contender for a conference crown. That type of team becomes more & more galvanized every week, and it is the situation right now happening with UL-Monroe. The Warhawks had won just 10 games combined over the last four seasons, but in 2024, they are off to a rousing 5-1 SU and ATS start, including three outright upset wins. Why would they not be competitive here against a South Alabama team that has been incredibly inconsistent, a not-so-surprising trait for a team that was one of my popular stability mismatch play against teams earlier. 

Coming off the bye week, ULM can focus on getting that berth in the Sun Belt title game. For the USA matchup, the Warhawks will be backed by this strong angle: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 135-103 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010. With South Alabama just 16-35 (31.4%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2014, the pieces are in place for another big effort from ULM here.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go UL-Monroe +7.5 at South Alabama

Oklahoma State at Baylor

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

There have been 15 games so far this season with totals of 65 or higher. Those games are 8-7 Under the total. The 15 games mentioned had several things in common, primarily that at least one of the teams in the matchup was atrocious defensively. Secondly, both teams were consistent and potent offensively. Neither of those traits is present in this game between Oklahoma State and Baylor, and I believe this lofty total stems from just what happened last week in the teams’ games. Baylor exploded at Texas Tech, scoring 59 points behind QB Sawyer Robertson. However, prior to that, the Bears had only scored 24.6 PPG in their prior five contests. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, got into a shootout with BYU, a game the Cowboys lost 38-35. In the three games before that, however, the offense struggled, putting up less than 18 PPG. 

I believe these Week 8 games for both teams were outliers, and the total isn’t reflecting it. In fact, using all of the five different metrics I have for totals, only one calls for more than 62.8 points in this game. The public at DK isn’t buying it either, with 85% handle on the low side of the total, and with the average college football total having steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%).

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Under 65 in OSU-Baylor

Missouri at Alabama

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

I have debated for the early part of this week whether or not to back Alabama to bounce back after the loss at Tennessee to handle Missouri rather easily here, but I just can’t pull the trigger. It’s just too tough to gauge how this team will react in what has now become a desperate situation in making the playoffs. I also feel that there has been a blueprint established on how to slow the Tide’s offense, that being to give Jalen Milroe some lane pressure where he can’t run and prevent him from hitting big shots to WR Ryan Williams. Milroe has struggled with being patient against sound defensive efforts. 

Well, Missouri has been very sound defensively this season; I’ve been saying all along that the offense is the side of the ball not clicking. That is why the Tigers are 5-2 to the Under so far in 2024. In fact, head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s team is holding opponents 13.6 PPG below their scoring averages. Alabama is actually a little better at 15.8 PPG below. All of this adds up to what should be a lower-scoring ranked contest: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 38-15 (71.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Under 53 in Missouri-Alabama

Illinois at Oregon

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

I think the betting public hears the name Oregon and immediately thinks of an explosive offensive team ready to engage in shootouts with whoever crosses the path. That is not how this Ducks’ team has positioned itself to make a deep run in the first-ever 12-team CFP in December. Head coach Dan Lanning’s team may have a prolific QB in Dillon Gabriel, but the strength is in their defense this season. Effectively, they are allowing just 8.7 points per game and holding teams 17.9 PPG below their averages. 

If that happens this week, Illinois is bound for less than 12! The Illini are also pretty stout defensively and are not expecting to get blown up in Eugene. They are only allowing 14.4 effective points per game. Take away the 50-49 decision against Purdue, and Illinois’ other six games have produced just 39.2 PPG. We also know that in college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 38-15 (71.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go Under 54.5 in Illinois-Oregon

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