Cal vs. Virginia Tech
Two blowouts and one close game. At least that’s the betting market expectation for Friday night college football in Week 9. Cal vs. Virginia Tech is the only game with a spread under three touchdowns, as North Texas vs. Charlotte nearly has a four-touchdown line and Boise State vs. Nevada is on the plus side of a blackjack.
So, I’ll look at Cal vs. Virginia Tech as the most compelling of the three games and also the one with a whole lot of betting angles to discuss. The other two games will get a mention below as well.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 22, 11:05 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Cal vs. Virginia Tech (-6, 51)
7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
A lot of things stand out about Cal vs. Virginia Tech. One of them is that the teams have opposite records, as Cal is 5-2 and Virginia Tech is 2-5, yet it is the host Hokies who are the clear favorite in this Friday night affair. Cal has yet to experience “Enter Sandman” live, as the Golden Bears just joined the ACC prior to last season. The only head-to-head meeting between the two programs came in the 2003 Insight Bowl. Cal won 52-49. I don’t think we’re in line for 101 points here.
But, what are we going to get out of the Hokies? Brent Pry was fired after the humiliating Week 3 home loss to Old Dominion. Former Tulsa HC Philip Montgomery took over and the Hokies beat Wofford comfortably and even beat NC State before losing both October games they’ve played thus far to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Now they’re off of a bye with a tough schedule the rest of the way.
After the Cal game, Virginia Tech faces Louisville, Florida State, Miami, and rival Virginia. Bowl eligibility won’t be in the cards, but this is the last really good shot at a win. Although the Seminoles are a mess and the Hokies are off of a bye, they’ll be an underdog down in Tallahassee.
This is Cal’s second trip to the Atlantic Coast for this season as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference. They beat Boston College 28-24 with a huge 11-play, 88-yard game-winning drive right after allowing a 71-yard TD run. Last week’s performance against North Carolina certainly didn’t impress anybody, as a Tar Heels fumble in the end zone kept the beleaguered program from a nice road win in Berkeley.
On a per-play basis, there are some things to like about the Hokies. Per CFB Graphs, Virginia Tech is actually 69th in the nation in EPA/play on offense, while Cal is 103rd. Turnovers play a huge role in EPA-based stats and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has a 10/7 TD/INT ratio and Devin Brown has a 1/1 TD/INT ratio, while Kyron Drones has an 11/5 ratio on the season. Another reason why Virginia Tech graded better on offense is because they’ve run the football much better, posting 4.7 yards per carry. That’s even with a pedestrian rushing year from Drones with 92 carries for just 277 yards. Cal only has 3.0 yards per carry.
Defensively, though, the Golden Bears look sharper than the Hokies. Even though Cal has four fewer sacks in the same number of games, they rank just outside the top 50 in yards per play allowed. Virginia Tech is 113th in YPP allowed. But, when you look deeper, the Hokies have done better in conference play from a YPP standpoint.
The two teams were separated by more than 40 spots in strength of schedule as of Wednesday morning, with Virginia Tech 27th and Cal 72nd. While this isn’t quite a short-week game for Cal, as they played on Friday night last week, it’s still a long trip against a rested Virginia Tech team whose statistical profile is a little bit better when accounting for level of opponent. I think they’re worth laying the number.
Circa was -6 on this game at time of writing, while 5.5, 5, and even 4.5 (Fanduel) were available. Shop around for the best number.
Pick: Virginia Tech -6
Other Friday Games
North Texas (-26.5, 61) vs. Charlotte: The first kickoff on Friday is this 7 p.m. one in Charlotte between the Mean Green and 49ers on ESPN2. North Texas bounced back extremely well from the blowout loss to South Florida with a blowout win over UTSA. Charlotte hasn’t beaten a FBS team yet in Tim Albin’s first season, as their lone win has been over Monmouth and that was a 42-35 game.
In four conference games, Charlotte has been outscored 155-64 and they’ve played Rice, South Florida, Army, and Temple, so one of the best teams in the conference and three much lesser teams. North Texas or nothing here, though it is a long trip for UNT with Navy on deck, so not the best of scheduling spots.
Boise State (-21.5, 51) vs. Nevada: CBS Sports Network has this 10 p.m. ET kick in Reno between Boise State and Nevada. The Wolf Pack have been outscored 88-49 in their three conference games thus far, while Boise State has averaged nearly 49 points per Mountain West contest. Defensively, though, the Broncos have been leaky, allowing 37, 25, and 31 points. Nevada has no offense to speak of, though. Like Charlotte, Nevada’s only win is against FCS Sacramento State in a one-score game.
It’s a short week for the Wolf Pack and they have a bye next week, which makes me wonder if Jeff Choate could be fired. The team is 4-16 on his watch, though Choate’s buyout drops after January 31 of next year, so it’s unlikely that they’ll do anything. Nevertheless, this team has no talent and a bad coach. Again, the favorite or nothing here, but I will likely be a bystander.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 9 games on our Pro Picks Page.
