Delaware vs. Western Kentucky
Conference USA is once again coming up big here in Week 9 with two games on Tuesday and two games on Wednesday to keep up this magical run of 61 straight days with a football game. Delaware vs. Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State are the games in question, as we had Missouri State vs. Delaware last week and Sam Houston State played on Wednesday. Western Kentucky has the rest advantage, as they did not play last week, so we’ll see if that helps against the Blue Hens.
Liberty and Jacksonville State are pretty clearly the class of this conference, so these games may not have too much bearing on the C-USA Championship Game and the standings, but keep in mind that bowl eligibility is a big deal for these teams. Having played some paycheck games earlier in the season to fund athletic endeavors has several teams chasing six wins, so these are big games for them.
We’ll go in chronological order here, as I do have a stronger opinion on Delaware vs. Western Kentucky.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 26, 8:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Delaware (-1, 56.5) at Western Kentucky
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
To say that the return of Nick Minicucci gave Delaware a big lift last week is an understatement. The Blue Hens exploded for 61 points and the veteran signal caller was responsible for five TDs through the air and another on the ground. Delaware did only outgain Missouri State 482-431 en route to the 61-38 win, but it’s hard to argue with their efficiency on short fields. Delaware had scoring drives of 68, 65, 62, and 55 yards in the first half, so they did sustain some drives, but the second half saw points on drives of 34, 33, 4, 66, 23, and 34 yards as Missouri State had some turnovers and other mishaps.
Clearly Delaware is a different team with Minicucci. He was hurt against Virginia and the team lost 42-3. He also missed the losses to Liberty and Middle Tennessee. With him in the lineup, they are 3-2 and even scored 26 points in a 35-26 loss to Vanderbilt.
Western Kentucky would love to have a difference maker like that at QB. So far, Rodney Tisdale Jr. and Brock Glenn have both gotten reps. Tisdale has a 4/2 TD/INT ratio, but has been sacked 11 times. Glenn has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio and has only been sacked four times, but has also only completed 52.3% of his 128 passes. Tisdale has nine fewer pass attempts and 13 more completions. Glenn, though, is also the team’s second-leading rusher.
Glenn has started the last two games, both wins over Missouri State and Sam Houston State. But, he was just 14-of-30 for 127 yards against the Bearkats in that 16-3 win with just 2.5 yards per carry on 22 attempts. The Hilltoppers had some offensive line issues in that one to say the least. On the whole, this is not the type of offense that you would expect from Clay Helton, as the Hilltoppers have 4.89 YPP and rank 127th in the nation.
Defensively, the Hilltoppers are 111th in YPP allowed, but it should be noted that they have only allowed 4.72 YPP in three C-USA games. They were torched in the non-conference portion of the season, understandable with Georgia and Indiana among the opponents. Unfortunately, the offense hasn’t really perked up in conference play just yet.
Delaware’s playing a really high-variance style in league action. They’ve allowed 6.73 YPP and gained 6.1. Of course, those numbers need an asterisk without Minicucci in the lineup, but he’s not playing defense and that unit has been awful.
Of the bets here in this game, I prefer Western Kentucky -1.5, as their defense should be the best unit on the field, plus they’re well-rested. The Hilltoppers played five road games out of their first seven games, including trips to Reno and Las Cruces. A chance to catch their breath should help here.
At time of writing, Circa was one of very few books with WKU as an underdog. I still prefer -1 or -1.5 on the WKU side to taking Delaware in this one.
Pick: Western Kentucky +1
Sam Houston State at Missouri State (-4.5, 49.5)
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Missouri State has allowed 116 points in three conference games thus far. The total number of points scored in Sam Houston games has been 111. So, this should be an interesting one, as the Bearkats have only mustered 30 points worth of offense with their 0-3 start to C-USA action, not exactly what the administration had in mind when longtime OC and Air Raid disciple Phil Longo was hired as the head coach when KC Keeler left for Temple.
While the Bearkats’ record is awful, three of their six losses are by six or fewer points. Two of their uncompetitive losses are Texas Tech and Liberty. However, their only win came against FCS Nicholls in a 59-0 drubbing, so they’ve only scored 82 points in six games against FBS opponents. Incredibly, against some pretty subpar competition, Sam Houston has just 3.94 YPP in conference games.
Missouri State has racked up better than six yards per play against C-USA foes. Unfortunately, they’ve also allowed more than six yards per play. That does make this a pretty tough handicap. The Bears have the better offense, but also pretty clearly the lesser defense. The offense has also had an uptick with Henry Belin IV now the starter over Skyler Locklear. Belin has a 6/4 TD/INT ratio with a 67.6% completion rate and has thrown for 300+ in back-to-back games.
Thus, I lean towards Missouri State, but it’s not an official play or a super strong take from me.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 9 games on our Pro Picks Page.
