Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware
The stretch of 49 straight days with football continues on October 22 with a pair of Conference USA games. What a fitting name for the conference, given that Wednesday night college football is something that only Murica can provide. We also have two teams that weren’t even in FBS last season – Missouri State and Delaware. They aren’t playing each other, though, as Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware and Missouri State vs. New Mexico State are the two games.
My stronger opinion of the two games is on Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware, so we’ll look at that one first and then Missouri State vs. New Mexico State, which is the later of the two tilts with a 9 p.m. ET kickoff in Las Cruces, a pretty long way from Springfield. By the way, shout-out Springfield, MO because you can now hear VSiN content on our local radio partners!
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 21, 7:15 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware (-9, 55)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
It’s hard to believe that ESPN would rather show the NBA instead of this game, so it’s been moved to ESPN2. Still a big platform for Middle Tennessee and Delaware and a big reason why Conference USA opted to alter the schedule to get some face time on cable TV. It is great exposure for the program and the TV revenue certainly helps with some smaller athletic department budgets.
If you’ve been watching or reading, you know that this isn’t a very good conference. Jeff Sagarin’s highest-rated team (Louisiana Tech) is 97th nationally. His rankings include FCS teams and Middle Tennessee is ranked 182nd. There are 134 FBS teams. The highest power-rated C-USA team for me is also Louisiana Tech, 93rd in the country. Most of these teams have low strength of schedules as well, by virtue of playing each other and some early-season FCS teams.
Delaware has played the 115th-ranked SOS per Sagarin and Middle Tennessee the 127th, but the Blue Raiders are just 1-5 straight up on the season. This is an offense ranked 117th in the country in yards per play and they didn’t even get a bump from playing FCS Austin Peay, as they had 2.59 YPP in the season opener. The defense hasn’t fared much better, sitting 112th in the nation with a hair under six yards per play allowed.
Delaware, meanwhile, has racked up nearly six yards per play this season and 5.92 YPP against FBS opponents. They have dropped their last two games to Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky, but do have wins over FIU and UConn, with that Huskies dub getting better by the week. And this is a good offense. QB Nick Minicucci has thrown for over 1,800 yards with a 9/3 TD/INT ratio. His 2.4 yards per carry drag down that unit’s set of stats, but top RB Jo Silver has 5.5 yards per pop on 68 attempts.
Six guys for the Blue Hens have at least 14 catches, so they’ve spread the ball around. Middle Tennessee has, too, as they’ve got six guys in double figures. The difference is that Delaware averages 1.6 more yards per catch. QB Nicholas Vattiato has a 61.1% completion rate with an 8/4 TD/INT ratio, but the Blue Raiders have trailed a lot this season, so there’s a lot of garbage time production in those numbers.
Jekail Middlebrook is the only ball carrier with over 81 yards for the Blue Raiders, so he’s been a good back, but depth at the position is non-existent. Delaware is 107th in the nation in yards per carry allowed, so he should get lots of touches tonight.
But therein lies the problem for MTSU tonight. They’ll have to run it while Delaware should be able to throw it. Middle Tennessee ranks 129th in the nation in yards per pass attempt against. They have a 14/3 TD/INT ratio as a defense. Delaware is also stepping down in class in a big way after playing two of the better C-USA teams.
Maybe Middle Tennessee is a bit of a positive regression candidate after losing the last two games despite more total yards, but Derek Mason just doesn’t seem to be working out in Murfreesboro and this is simply a very bad team. My Week 9 college football power ratings have Delaware -15.
Pick: Delaware -9
Other Wednesday Game
Missouri State (-2, 52) vs. New Mexico State: CBS Sports Network has this one beginning at 9 p.m. in New Mexico. Missouri State’s transition to FBS has been overseen by QB Jacob Clark, but he missed the last game due to injury. Deuce Bailey led a win over Middle Tennessee, as he had 278 yards on just 16 completions, but he only had 17 yards on 18 carries, as the Bears ran for just 2.0 yards per carry. Head coach Ryan Beard said that there was “a slight possibility” that his day-to-day QB would be back, but also hinted towards both QBs playing, as their skill sets are very different.
The Aggies, who endured a rough 30-27 loss to Liberty on the road last week, have no QB worries, as it will be Logan Fife with a 56.5% completion rate and an 8/4 TD/INT ratio. New Mexico State has only rushed for 2.3 yards per carry, as all of their explosive plays have been on the passing side. With the QB uncertainty for Missouri State, no interest in betting this game, as it’s also a weird travel situation for the Bears, plus there’s some elevation in Las Cruces for a team coming off of the bye.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 9 games on our Pro Picks Page.
