South Alabama vs. Georgia State
Much like Week 8, we get a standalone game on Thursday night in Week 9. Unlike Week 8, it is not the American Conference, as the Sun Belt Conference gets the lone college football spotlight while going up against Thursday Night Football between the Vikings and Chargers in the NFL. Zachary Cohen will have that preview for you, but I have the South Alabama vs. Georgia State preview right here.
You may remember Center Parc Stadium as Turner Field, as Georgia State plays their football games in the old home of the Atlanta Braves. Built for the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, the venue has hosted Panthers football since 2017. This will be South Alabama’s first visit since 2019 and the first game between the teams since 2020.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 21, 1:55 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions.
South Alabama (-6.5, 56.5) at Georgia State
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The biggest betting story in this game is that we saw the odds screen light up on Tuesday around lunchtime ET with movement on the Over. The timing of the move suggests that a betting syndicate of some kind with a lot of subscribers released a play and the sportsbooks either got wind of it and started moving or the action that came in necessitated an adjustment. Circa actually bumped the total 2.5 points from where they were sitting at 55.5 prior to the incoming action. And then somebody quickly came back the other way and the total settled in between.
These are two bad football teams with two wins and 12 losses combined and they rank 96th and 102nd, respectively, in yards per play on offense, so it’s an interesting move to say the least. Of course, when you are 1-6, you probably struggle in a lot of areas and the teams also rank 76th and 125th in YPP allowed, with Georgia State holding the bottom-10 ranking.
South Alabama’s play-calling has been suspect at best this season. For a team that is 1-6 and has spent a ton of time trailing, 305 rush attempts against 174 pass attempts is an odd split. That said, 68 of the rush attempts belong to QB Bishop Davenport, who has also been sacked 14 times, so that may say something about the caliber of the Jaguars offensive line. Kentrel Bullock (4.6), PJ Martin (5.6), and Keenan Phillips (6.0) all have good yards per carry numbers and even with Davenport’s paltry 2.6 yards per attempt, it looks like this is a good run-blocking line.
With that in mind, it should be noted that Georgia State has allowed over 5.1 yards per carry and they only have seven sacks in seven games. That’s another good indicator of why the total on this game moved up, as the Panthers possess very little ability to stop the run or rush the quarterback.
Meanwhile, Georgia State’s offense has been something of a timeshare with multi-time transfer TJ Finley and Cameran Brown. This is Finley’s fifth school in six seasons. He has a 4/4 TD/INT ratio with a 63.2% completion rate. Brown, meanwhile, has been the far more effective passer and runner, posting an 8/0 TD/INT ratio with a 67.2% completion rate and 5.5 yards per carry on 38 rush attempts.
Brown got the start last week in the annual “Modern Day Hate” rivalry game against Georgia Southern. He racked up 400 total yards and two touchdowns in the 41-24 loss, as Georgia Southern scored 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter for the win. Brown took over two games ago against App State and then got the last start, so all indications point towards him getting this one.
South Alabama only has seven sacks as well, so the elusive Brown should fare well in this matchup. Without Finley’s 15 carries for -46 yards, the Panthers go up to 4.3 yards per carry. Brown has also been sacked just four times compared to Finley’s nine in just eight fewer pass attempts.
The Over absolutely makes sense in this game, so I think this was a good release by whoever put it out, though the number did almost immediately tick back down. I like it given what we’re working with here with dual-threat QBs against bad run defenses and no weather concerns at all.
Pick: Over 56.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 9 games on our Pro Picks Page.
