Troy vs. James Madison
The 2-2-2 format for the middle of the week continues on Thursday with a couple of games, one from the Sun Belt and one from the American. The Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas has our highest total of the season and we’ve seen a runaway train full of money on the Over in this one, pretty much since Monday morning. On a week where we have our lowest total of the season (Wisconsin vs. Iowa), we have a game that is more than double that total of 36.5.
Both games are set to kick at 7:30, with Troy vs. James Madison as the other game, and the one that I have a stronger opinion on. So, I’ll look at both of them, but hopefully the Fun Belt game is as fun for us as the FAU vs. North Texas game will be for everybody else.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 26, 6:05 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Troy at James Madison (-21, 49) Prediction
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Pick: James Madison -21
A return trip to the College Football Playoff seems highly unlikely for James Madison after what transpired last week, but the Dukes probably think that they still have a shot and running up the score whenever possible would help in that quest. After losing 34-31 to App State in overtime last Thursday, this is an opportunity for JMU to make amends rather quickly.
It is a very quick turnaround for Troy, as the Trojans have to pick up the pieces of their worst home loss in a very long time. UL Monroe scored 18 points in the fourth quarter to win 21-14 and beat a FBS opponent for the first time since September 27, 2025. Troy went to Monroe and beat the Warhawks 37-14 last season, so this one was quite the turn of events.
It wasn’t just that Troy lost. Losses happen. Fluky things can dictate the outcome of a game, even as a 13.5-point favorite. But, it really wasn’t just that. Troy only had 200 total yards of offense and 12 first downs. The QBs combined to go 9-of-18 for 47 yards. The ball carriers had 3.3 yards per carry. It was an egregious offensive showing with 3.08 yards per play against a team that had allowed 6.87 YPP up to that point.
Goose Crowder was 6-of-14 for 50 yards and Tucker Kilcrease was 3-of-4 for -3 yards. The longest carry for Troy was by Kilcrease, a 12-yard scamper. Leading rusher Gavin Griffin had 11 carries for just 39 yards. Leading receiver TK Keyes didn’t play. Second-leading receiver Noreel White had one catch for 12 yards. Crowder was listed as questionable and did play, but obviously not that well. We saw a lot of Warhawks money hit the board with the injury report for Troy, but it’s still hard to say that the investment community saw this coming.
The Dukes lost 34-31 in Boone, outgaining the Mountaineers 423-366. It was an uncharacteristically poor performance out of the Dukes in terms of situational football, as they had just a 20% third-down success rate per Game on Paper, which ranked in the 6th percentile for this season. They still stuffed the run well on defense and ranked in the 62nd percentile in Havoc Rate, but the offense just didn’t do enough.
You do have to wonder if Billy Napier should have gone for two when the Dukes scored with three seconds left to cap off a 15-play, 71-yard drive. Obviously that would not have covered the spread, but it could have won the game for James Madison. Instead, he opted to kick and take the better team into OT, which backfired with an 11-yard loss on the first play of the series, leading to a missed field goal.
Last week’s debacle aside, this has still been a good version of JMU. The Dukes are a top-40 defense by yards per play and a top-25 offense. They’ve outgained opponents by over a yard per play in Sun Belt games. Troy is +0.05 YPP in conference games, but they did give up nearly 7.8 yards per play to a poor Southern Miss team.
I think the Dukes are poised to put a beating on Troy in this one.
Pick: James Madison -21
Florida Atlantic at North Texas (-13, 77)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
North Texas has canceled afternoon classes in hopes that the students pack DATCU Stadium in Denton. They should get treated to quite a show if this total is any indication. Florida Atlantic just gave up over 10 yards per play to Rice in a 51-49 thriller, while North Texas returned from the bye to beat Navy 49-39.
Since the 52-16 loss to Indiana to open the season, the Mean Green have scored 44, 35, 63, 45, 50, and 49 points. Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as robust on offense, but did drop 45 on UL Monroe, 66 on Texas Southern, and then 51 last week against Rice. They also allowed 56 points to Army’s triple-option attack the game prior.
There were nine touchdowns of 30+ yards in that Rice/FAU game, so blown assignments and missed tackles were on display in a big way. Only three teams – South Alabama, West Virginia, and Colorado State – have allowed more yards per play than FAU. And, despite losing pretty much everybody on offense, including the coaching staff, North Texas is fourth in the nation in yards per play, as first-year HC Neal Brown has kept the offensive standards very high at UNT.
As it pertains to the total, can FAU’s offense keep up? The Owls are narrowly inside the top 90 in yards per play, which is not great when you consider that they entered the week 10th in pass attempts. The running game has been pretty much abysmal with 3.2 yards per carry, though Caden Veltkamp’s 34 attempts for -52 yards have done quite a number on the YPC metrics.
I lean North Texas here, as they are more likely to get stops and have the much more dynamic offense, but it’s not a strong position.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 9 games on our Pro Picks Page.
