Week 8 begins with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Carolina Panthers for some Thursday Night Football. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 8 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Panthers vs. Packers
When: Thursday, October 29 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Channel: Prime Video
Panthers vs. Packers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, October 27. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Packers -185, Panthers +154
Spread: Packers -3.5 (-112), Panthers +3.5 (-108)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112), Under 47.5 (-108)
Panthers vs. Packers Analysis
If not for a bad day at the office for kicker Trey Smack, Green Bay would likely be entering this week on a four-game winning streak. Instead, Detroit was able to snap the team’s three-game winning streak, earning a 20-17 win as a 3.5-point home home favorite. The Packers will now look to rebound with a home game against the Panthers, and it’s pretty clear that there’s a strong expectation they will. Green Bay is a very popular bet to take care of business, according to our DraftKings betting splits, and it’s pretty easy to see why.
Over the last four weeks, the Packers have looked like one of the best teams in football. In that span, they’re No. 2 in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.118), and it’s their passing defense (-0.099 Dropback EPA/Play Allowed) setting the tone. Only four teams have been better against the pass than Green Bay over the last four weeks, and making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable is huge given the pass-first nature of today’s NFL.
The Packers are also playing well offensively, with their Dropback EPA/Play (0.217) being No. 7 in the league in this recent four-game stretch. Jordan Love has his inconsistencies, but he has done a good job spearheading this Los Angeles attack.
There’s just a lot that Green Bay is doing well right now, and the public always takes notice when this iconic franchise is running good. However, when looking up all of these numbers for the Packers, do you know what stood out the most? The Panthers have a better statistical profile over the course of the entire season. Carolina also matches up well with Green Bay in several ways.
One thing that should help the Panthers is that the Packers are only 26th in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (26). Well, Carolina is 31st in the NFL in Pass Block Win Rate (70%), meaning the team can struggle to keep Bryce Young upright. Well, perhaps that won’t be a massive concern if the Packers defensive ends can’t consistently get in the backfield.
I’m also not sure Green Bay will be able to keep Chuba Hubbard from picking up big yards on early downs. He has been tough after contact this season, and there’s a good chance he’ll find some success in this game. We just saw Jahmyr Gibbs run 29 times against the Packers, wearing down their defensive line. Hubbard should now be able to pick on what’s left.
On the other side of the ball, Carolina struggles against the run. But will that be a problem against a Green Bay team that hasn’t gotten the ground game going? Also, how will a recently reshuffled Green Bay offensive line look against a Carolina defense which is eighth in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (54%)?
I just don’t think this game will feature one-way traffic, and I like the way the Panthers have responded to home losses under Dave Canales. They’re 8-2 against the spread when coming off a loss in Carolina under Canales, and they’re also 4-0 both straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite in that span.
Panthers vs. Packers Player Props
LEAN: Hubbard Anytime Touchdown (-120)
I’m already playing quite a bit in this game, so I won’t personally be adding anything on the player prop market. However, if you’re looking for action there, I’d go with Hubbard to find the end zone. Only the Saints have given up more touchdowns to opposing running backs than the nine that the Packers have allowed. Hubbard had also scored three touchdowns in the previous two weeks before being held scoreless last week. Our OptaAI player prop projections also happen to have Hubbard rushing for 81.36 yards in this game. So, going Over 68.5 rushing yards is definitely a route you can go. However, if Hubbard does rush for at least 80 yards here, you can probably count on him to add a touchdown to that.
Panthers vs. Packers Pick
Fading the Packers at Lambeau Field is always a bit risky, but most of the important numbers that are made available to the public suggest that there isn’t a big gap between these teams. That makes it hard to pass on the points, and that’s especially true with +4 available at one prominent book — and I wouldn’t hesitate to grab the +3.5 either. I’m also going to sprinkle the moneyline, as Young has been a top-tier quarterback this year (fifth in PFF grade at 82.4). I’ll take my chances with him late in a close game.
Bet: Panthers +4 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Panthers ML (+170 – 0.5 units)
