College Football Prediction Models
Welcome back to another edition of “TSI vs the Field,” my weekly article where I analyze where my T Shoe Index compares to other top predictive models in college football and provide betting advice based on where the models align and where they differ the most. This article is 4-2 on model consensus picks this season, and we’re back for more in Week 3. Here are the model consensus picks and the biggest model disagreements that perhaps require a deeper look under the hood or are just stay-aways:
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 3 College Football Model Alignment:
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-7), O/U 57.5
Our biggest model consensus this week is on the WVU/Pitt matchup, where there is just a model variance of 2.2 points from the highest to lowest prediction, all of which align on the same side of the spread. SP+ is the most liberal model here, calling for Pitt -4.5, while FPI only makes it Pitt -2.3, and TSI & Sagarin are between 3.5 and 4. I think this is an excellent buy-low spot on WVU after a loss to Ohio on the road last week.
College Football Week 3 Pick: West Virginia +7 or better
Tulane Green Wave (-1.5) vs. Duke Blue Devils, O/U 54
Model consensus play #2 is on Tulane. This line has been bonkers and everywhere from Tulane -3 to Duke -1.5. Our model average projection on this game is Tulane -6, with a variance of just 2.3 points between the models. SP+ is again the most liberal, favoring Tulane by 7.5, while TSI is more modest at Tulane -5.1, but still, all models easily on the Green Wave side of the spread. This is an interesting spot for both teams after Tulane won a tight battle with South Alabama last week and Duke had some turnover misfortune that made their final score against Illinois look way worse than it actually was. That’s what the models are for, to help us contextualize what we saw with our eyeballs, and they’re telling us loud and clear that Tulane is the side here.
College Football Week 3 Pick: Tulane -3 or better
LSU Tigers (-7.5) vs. Florida Gators, O/U 47.5
Our last model consensus play of the week takes us to the Bayou, where LSU is still riding high public perception after the Clemson win in Week 1 but quietly was unimpressive in a Week 2 win over Louisiana Tech. Florida, meanwhile, is coming off a very notable loss that is on everyone’s minds as Billy Napier is potentially coaching for his job in this game following the South Florida loss. Our models indicate “Sunbelt Billy” and the Gators will make this one interesting, with an average projection of LSU -4.4 with a variance of just 4.4 points. Sagarin is the only model at a full touchdown in favor of LSU, while SP+ is at just 2.8, with TSI and FPI between 3-5 points in favor of the Tigers. All signs point to a Florida cover here, so I’m backing the Gators. Spread projections aside, this total has dropped a handful of points, so be on alert for a slugfest in Baton Rouge.
College Football Week 3 Pick: Florida +7.5
Week 3 College Football Model Disagreement
Georgia Southern Eagles (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks, O/U 58.5
Jacksonville State is certainly exceeding expectations early on, losing a close game on the road to UCF and beating Liberty by double digits as a touchdown underdog. This notable start for them has the models scrambling to keep up, which is why this is our first big disagreement of the week. The average projection in Georgia Southern -2.5, but the variance is 14.4 points on a field goal spread! TSI calls for the Eagles to win by double digits (11), while SP+ has the Gamecocks as a field goal favorite here. Of course, I’m biased and rode with TSI and the Eagles here, but I wouldn’t blame you if you passed.
UAB Blazers (-11.5) vs. Akron Zips, O/U 57.5
I know everyone reading this is excited for the banger this weekend between the UAB Blazers and the Akron Zips. This is the ultimate sicko game this weekend, and the models don’t quite have a handle on these bottom-dwelling teams. The model average here is UAB -13.7, but the variance is 12.7 points, with TSI again calling its shot and projecting UAB -22.5, and FPI only making the game UAB -9.8. SP+ and Sagarin both agree it should be about 11.5, so do with this what you will, but we’ve got models on either side and right in the middle of this market number.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers (-3), O/U 52.5
This is the game I’m probably the most interested in this weekend from a data and modeling standpoint. Our models have an average projected spread of Clemson -1.9 with a variance of 10.7 points. Again, TSI is on a limb here backing my old buddy, Dabo Swinney (if you know, you know) and the Tigers by 9.5 points, but FPI and SP+ are calling for an outright upset and Tech win, with Sagarin favoring Clemson by a half point. The market certainly has jumped on the Jackets, driving this line from Clemson -6 down to -3 and even some 2.5s are popping up. Everyone seems to be on the home dog, and I haven’t bet this game yet (aside from the Under), but Clemson waking up this week seems pretty on brand, in my opinion. I’d back the Tigers or stay away at this point.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
