College Football Prediction Models
Welcome back to another edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models align and disagree on the slate. This analysis helps pinpoint where there are betting opportunities on model alignment, and where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 4 College Football Model Alignment:
Model Consensus
Kansas (-13.5) vs. West Virginia, O/U 55.5
Our first game of the week is a Big 12 showdown between Kansas, who’s coming off an idle week, vs. West Virginia, who is riding high after an overtime win in the Backyard Brawl vs Pitt. The model average projection on this game is Kansas -8.5 with a variance of just 2.7 points, with all models aligned on the WVU side of the spread. FPI is the most aggressive but still well short of the 13.5-point line, projecting Kansas 9.8, while Sagarin and SP+ both project Kansas 7.1, with TSI at 9.7.
College Football Pick: West Virginia +13.5
UTEP (-6) vs UL Monroe, O/U 47
UTEP is coming off of a loss to Texas, but lost by just 17 as 38.5-point underdogs; meanwhile, UL Monroe was off last week after getting obliterated by Alabama the previous week. The models all align on the Miners here, with an average projection of UTEP -9 and a variance of just 2.9 points. TSI is the most liberal, projecting UTEP -10.8, while FPI calls for UTEP -7.9, and Sagarin and SP+ are firmly in the middle. The data indicates this could be a comfortable win for Malachi Nelson and the Miners, so I’m laying the points.
College Football Pick: UTEP -6
Model Disagreement
Wisconsin (-10) vs Maryland, O/U 44
This is a game I was iffy about to begin with, because Maryland has shown flashes, but no consistency and has been historically pretty bad on the road under Mike Locksley. But Wisconsin has just looked consistently bad this season. The models can’t figure them out, either, with an average projection of Wisconsin -5.3, but a variance of 11.2 points. Sagarin is calling for the Badgers’ cover at -11, but the other three models range from Wisconsin -0.4 to Wisconsin -5. I think I’m going to pass and just collect another data point on these teams.
East Carolina vs BYU (-6.5), O/U 49.5
I’ve both bet on and against ECU this year with mixed results. BYU looked like a wagon against an FCS opponent and then handily beat Stanford in a low-scoring game. The models aren’t quite sure what to do with this game with a variance of 10.7 points on the projections and an average of BYU -3.8. SP+ calls for the Cougars’ cover with a projection of BYU -9.8, but TSI projects just BYU -0.7, with FPI and Sagarin somewhere in between. I think especially since BYU only has one data point against an FBS opponent, it’s probably best to just sit back and learn something rather than try to force a play.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
