Nine conference championship games will make up the entire Week 15 college football schedule. Four games are on home campuses on Friday and five games are in neutral settings on Saturday, with some College Football Playoff spots hanging in the balance. The only game with CFP implications on Friday is North Texas vs. Tulane. Four of the five games on Saturday have CFP implications, though Ohio State and Indiana are both in and likely both have byes.
We’ll have game previews for all nine of these games at VSiN.com this week, but let’s look at the opening numbers and any line movement that we saw on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
(Note: Matchup links will be generated soon)
Let’s talk about the Week 15 college football odds.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 15 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, November 30 at 1:30 p.m. PT
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (-1.5, 58.5)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
The Conference USA Championship Game features Kennesaw State in just their second season as a FBS member. The Owls were 2-10 last season and fired Brian Bohannon during the season, but still found a way to rally behind first-year head coach Jerry Mack and a mostly new roster. Jacksonville State is also here with a pretty new roster and a new head coach, as Rich Rodriguez returned to West Virginia.
These two teams played in Jacksonville, AL on November 15 and the Gamecocks won 35-26, but Kennesaw State held a 579-451 edge. They were also -4 in TO margin, as QB Amari Odom threw three and the backup threw another one. The total ticked up a little bit from open and Fanduel had Kennesaw State -1.5 before the line flipped. The rest of the market had Jacksonville State favored from the jump.
Kennesaw State-Jacksonville State Matchup
Troy at James Madison (-21.5, 47)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
The Sun Belt Championship Game looks like a significant mismatch, as James Madison is favored by over three touchdowns. We’ll probably know JMU head coach Bob Chesney’s next landing spot before the game, but even that distraction shouldn’t impact the Dukes much. Troy upset Southern Miss to make it to this game and they do have a stout defense, as the total implies. They just can’t keep up offensively here. The Dukes are a top-35 offense in EPA/play and a top-15 defense in EPA/play per CFB Graphs and their huge yards per play differential pushed this spread up a little bit, even though the total ticked down a tad.
These two teams did not play during the regular season.
Troy-James Madison Matchup
North Texas (-2.5, 67) at Tulane
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
The only road favorite of conference championship week is North Texas. Head coach Eric Morris has taken the Oklahoma State job and Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is heading to Florida. Both head coaches have agreed with their new programs to stay through the conference title game and any College Football Playoff appearance. With the transfer portal not open until January 2, the new gig shouldn’t serve as a distraction.
These two teams did not play during the regular season, but North Texas’s 63-36 loss to South Florida has to stand out in a lot of minds while handicapping this one. That’s easily the best team that they’ve played this season and they got pummeled. Tulane’s random loss to UTSA is a concern the other way, as the Green Wave’s only other loss was a blowout at the hands of Ole Miss after beating Power Four foes Northwestern and Duke in non-conference play.
We’ve seen a little bit of Tulane money to come off the key number of 3 and we’ve seen one-way Over money pushing the total to as high as 67.5.
North Texas-Tulane Matchup
UNLV at Boise State (-3, 57)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
A rematch of last season’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game here, as Boise State won that one 21-7. Of course, that team had Ashton Jeanty and Maddux Madsen. This year’s team does not and UNLV looks a lot different without Hajj-Malik Williams and a new head coach in Dan Mullen.
The first game was a strong data point for Boise State, as they won 56-31 at home back on October 18. Madsen had four TD passes on just 14 completions in that game, but he’s out for the season due to injury. UNLV couldn’t stop Dylan Riley, who had 201 yards on 15 carries, so it was all about explosive plays for the Rebels defense. UNLV did run for 261 yards themselves in that game and the team combined for well over 1,000 yards.
Not surprisingly based on that first result, we’ve seen Over money and also Boise State money in the early going.
UNLV-Boise State Matchup
BYU vs. Texas Tech (-13, 49.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
An early kickoff in Arlington here between BYU and Texas Tech. The Red Raiders won the first matchup 29-7 in a game that wasn’t even really that close. The double-digit favorites in this game were also -13 in the last game, but that was at home in Lubbock. This one is in a neutral setting and, while it’s in Texas, Lubbock is a 4.5-hour drive from Arlington. BYU’s wealthy fan base can take a flight from Salt Lake City or Provo to either Dallas airport, so this could be a pretty balanced crowd.
Texas Tech took heavy money in that first game against a BYU team that the market felt was very overrated and was proven correct, at least in that game, but BYU has three blowout wins since. This line was a little smaller than -13 or -13.5 at open, but the Red Raiders have been popular and could continue to be.
BYU-Texas Tech Matchup
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5, 43)
Saturday, Noon ET
Miami, Ohio, and Toledo were all tied at 6-2 in the conference, but even though the RedHawks lost to the Bobcats and Rockets, Miami is in the title game and Ohio is not because Ohio and Toledo didn’t play. Simply absurd. Miami should have been eliminated from the picture and then tiebreakers applied to Ohio and Toledo. That wasn’t the case. I do wonder if that may create some negative Miami sentiment in this game against Western Michigan, even though it’s an entirely different opponent.
We haven’t really seen much of anything in this game in terms of line movement. Miami did beat Western Michigan 26-17 during the regular season, back when Dequan Finn was still on the team. Miami outgained Western Michigan by 92 yards and had the game’s lone takeaway. Not sure that this line will move much. Miami was -2 or -2.5 at home back on October 25, but these teams have taken different paths since.
Miami-Western Michigan Matchup
Georgia (-2, 47.5) vs. Alabama
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
This is a neutral-site game in Atlanta. While it doesn’t seem like a game in Georgia is a neutral-site affair, it will be. Alabama always travels well here. September 27 was a long time ago, but Alabama did win 24-21 in the regular season meeting between these two as a 2.5-point dog in Athens.
I felt like Alabama was the better team in the first quarter and a half and Georgia was better the rest of the way. The Crimson Tide did lose to Oklahoma 23-21 at home, but they outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 years in that one. The Tide were -3 in turnovers and one of them was an 87-yard pick-six, so a big swing of at least 10 points, if not more. That pretty much seemed to decide the game. We’ve seen very little movement in side or total here, but the movement we have seen bumped Georgia from -1 to -2 at Circa.
Georgia-Alabama Matchup
Duke vs. Virginia (-3, 58)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Unfortunately, one of these two teams will be in the College Football Playoff, as a really down year from the ACC has resulted in Duke vs. Virginia. The Blue Devils are 7-5 on the season, but emerged from the five-way tie at 6-2 in the ACC smelling like a rose. Virginia finished 7-1, but only had a +80 point differential in those games, as they won a lot of close games early to set up a fine regular season. The wild thing is that five teams were ranked in the ACC going into Week 14 and only one of them will play in the conference title game.
Virginia went to Durham and beat Duke 34-17 just a few weeks ago. It was a 31-3 game entering the fourth quarter as well. Virginia nearly outgained Duke by 300 yards and even finished the game -1 in turnover margin. To give you an idea of how the market felt about the Cavaliers, they were +4 to +5 in that game depending on the book. Obviously we’ve seen an ample adjustment here for the neutral-site matchup with a recent head-to-head result.
A few 2.5s have become 3s and the total has risen a half-point or a point at some places.
Duke-Virginia Matchup
Indiana vs. Ohio State (-5.5, 48.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
After finally trophy hunting the elephant in the room, Ohio State has a little momentum heading into Indianapolis to play in the Big Ten Championship Game just a year removed from missing it. The Buckeyes beat Michigan to join Indiana in this game, as it was possible that the Buckeyes wouldn’t make it. The Hoosiers dismantled and destroyed rival Purdue to end their season on a high note as well.
We’ve seen minimal movement here in this game on both side and total. The game technically doesn’t mean much for the College Football Playoff, as a loss shouldn’t push either team outside of the top four. But, obviously you’d like to win the conference and be the No. 1 seed in the CFP.
The more interesting storyline here is that this game could be a Heisman Trophy decider between favorite Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin. These two teams did not play during the regular season.
Indiana-Ohio State Matchup
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
