Conference Championship
The Conference Championship Week edition of “TSI vs the Field” takes my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, to compare and contrast with other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – to find where we align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Conference Championship Week College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Ohio State (-4) vs Indiana, O/U 47.5
12-0 vs. 12-0. #1 vs #2. It doesn’t get much more exciting than the matchup we’re in for in Indianapolis on Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. The money has been pouring in on Indiana, driving the line down from 6.5 to a consensus 4, with some 3.5s available out there. IU coach Curt Cignetti just secured his second straight Big Ten Coach of the Year award, while Ryan Day reloaded his national championship roster to go undefeated in the regular season in a methodical and business-like manner. Ohio State is 10-1-1 ATS while the Hoosiers are 6-4. Ohio State was favored in every game, while Indiana is 1-0 as a dog this year after their dominant win at Oregon.
The model average projection on this game is a pick ‘em. Yes, a pick ‘em. SP+ and Sagarin both have the Buckeyes favored by a mere point, while FPI projects a pick ‘em and TSI actually has Indiana -1.7, much to the chagrin of my fellow Buckeye fans on X. As I mentioned in my Monday article, I can’t personally bring myself to bet Indiana here (fandom aside) because I don’t think we’ve seen Ohio State really ramp up to 100% yet and I think we could see that Saturday, and there is a large talent disparity across the board between these teams – not that that’s the end all, be all, but when the metrics are similar, that’s a fair tie breaker. But, the models indicate the Hoosiers still have value at +4.
Model Pick: Indiana +4
Model Disagreement
Texas Tech (-12.5) vs BYU, O/U 49.5
BYU’s playoff hopes may very well be contingent on them winning this game, as they’re currently positioned just inside the top 12, but a loss likely knocks them out. Not to mention, they have the ability to win a conference title and avenge their only loss of the season. I’ve often said in sports that it’s hard to beat the same team twice in a season, because in my opinion, the losing team (assuming the talent is remotely similar) has the advantage in the rematch because they can make the adjustments while the winning team has to guess what the loser’s second pitch will be.
The average model projection on this game is Texas Tech -9 with a variance of 7.5 points; however, despite the huge variance, all the projections align on BYU plus the points at the current number. TSI and SP+ predict Texas Tech -11 and -11.5, respectively, while Sagarin has Tech -9.5 and FPI has Tech -4.2. I think the “art” piece here definitely favors the Cougars because Texas Tech knows they’re in the playoff, knows they’re likely a top four seed, and has the comfort of knowing they won the first time around. BYU is literally playing for its season here, so I think the art and science align well on BYU here.
Model Pick: BYU +12.5
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
